Issued 2026-09-16 at $140.78 · now $140.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PLMR has typically landed between $117.29 and $168.72 — a range of −16.7% to +19.8% from the issuance price $140.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,843 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-04-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($140.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PLMR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $140.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $140.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $142.46 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $131.74–$153.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $117.29–$168.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,843 windows spanning 2019-04-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-02-12 | −36.9% | −36.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-11 | −35.2% | −35.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-12 | −34.8% | −34.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-04 | +51.8% | +0.0% | +51.8% |
| 2020-12-07 | +49.2% | +0.0% | +49.2% |
| 2020-05-06 | +46.9% | −0.0% | +47.2% |
1,843 overlapping windows · 2019-04-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+2.0%
n=7
Feb
71%
+9.5%
n=7
Mar
43%
−0.3%
n=7
Apr
57%
−2.6%
n=7
May
88%
+10.6%
n=8
Jun
75%
+4.5%
n=8
Jul
75%
+5.0%
n=8
Aug
63%
+7.9%
n=8
Sep
38%
+0.0%
n=8
Oct
43%
+1.5%
n=7
Nov
57%
−1.2%
n=7
Dec
29%
−1.7%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bradley Daryl | director | Purchase | 1 @ $131.96 | $135 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,313 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 2,339 @ $130.49 | $305K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 323,180 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 792 @ $131.37 | $104K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 322,388 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 369 @ $129.65 | $48K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 325,519 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Sale | 791 @ $127.74 | $101K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 528 @ $127.75 | $67K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Sale | 296 @ $127.75 | $38K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Herve Rodolphe | officer | Sale | 818 @ $135.35 | $111K | −14.8% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Herve Rodolphe | officer | Sale | 389 @ $135.35 | $53K | −9.9% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,548 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 2,103 @ $136.70 | $287K | −0.6% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 327,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 937 @ $137.74 | $129K | −0.3% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 326,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 260 @ $138.47 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 326,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 200 @ $139.43 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $139.50 | $419K | −4.3% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 57,544 @ $131.66 | $7.6M | −26.4% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,068 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 3,197 @ $131.66 | $421K | −3.0% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,112 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 4,429 @ $139.50 | $618K | −6.2% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,478 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 2,434 @ $139.50 | $340K | −3.5% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,478 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-28 | Carter Timothy | officer | Sale | 300 @ $124.29 | $37K | −12.0% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-28 | Carter Timothy | officer | Sale | 180 @ $124.29 | $22K | −9.7% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,670 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 2,005 @ $112.72 | $226K | −0.6% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 330,883 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,495 @ $113.28 | $169K | −0.5% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 329,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 2,172 @ $114.67 | $249K | −0.6% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 332,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,328 @ $113.93 | $151K | −0.4% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 335,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Sale | 783 @ $115.26 | $90K | −4.8% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 522 @ $115.26 | $60K | −0.8% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,478 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Sale | 281 @ $115.26 | $32K | −1.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,622 @ $129.91 | $211K | −0.5% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 338,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $131.73 | $158K | −0.4% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,388 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 678 @ $131.11 | $89K | −0.2% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 337,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 3,197 @ $129.46 | $414K | −3.0% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 1,857 @ $128.59 | $239K | −2.7% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 80 @ $129.33 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,919 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $125.00 | $375K | −4.6% of holding | −22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,919 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,622 @ $120.78 | $196K | −0.5% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 340,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 978 @ $121.74 | $119K | −0.3% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 339,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 500 @ $119.47 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 400 @ $118.33 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Sale | 783 @ $128.04 | $100K | −5.0% of holding | −5.3% | −13.4% | 14,752 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 522 @ $128.04 | $67K | −0.8% of holding | −5.3% | −13.4% | 65,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Sale | 281 @ $128.04 | $36K | −1.0% of holding | −5.3% | −13.4% | 27,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,308 @ $123.63 | $162K | −0.4% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 344,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $119.42 | $131K | −0.3% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 346,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 1,023 @ $124.78 | $128K | −0.3% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 343,911 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 500 @ $120.57 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 346,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 423 @ $128.25 | $54K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 343,388 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 300 @ $117.58 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 348,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 246 @ $121.32 | $30K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 346,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 100 @ $126.15 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | −13.6% | 343,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-31 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 2,205 @ $121.74 | $268K | −2.2% of holding | +2.7% | +0.4% | 98,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-31 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Sale | 545 @ $121.74 | $66K | −3.7% of holding | +2.7% | +0.4% | 14,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-31 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 515 @ $121.75 | $63K | −0.8% of holding | +2.7% | +0.4% | 65,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-31 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Sale | 290 @ $121.74 | $35K | −1.1% of holding | +2.7% | +0.4% | 27,248 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-31 | Grant Angela L. | officer | Sale | 260 @ $121.75 | $32K | −3.6% of holding | +2.7% | +0.4% | 7,033 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 2,939 @ $122.04 | $359K | −2.9% of holding | +3.9% | +0.4% | 96,843 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Armstrong Mac | director | Sale | 2,460 @ $122.04 | $300K | −2.5% of holding | +3.9% | +0.4% | 94,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Sale | 815 @ $122.04 | $99K | −5.7% of holding | +3.9% | +0.4% | 13,496 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 677 @ $122.04 | $83K | −1.0% of holding | +3.9% | +0.4% | 64,941 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Sale | 511 @ $122.04 | $62K | −4.0% of holding | +3.9% | +0.4% | 12,370 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Christianson Jon | officer | Sale | 481 @ $122.04 | $59K | −0.7% of holding | +3.9% | +0.4% | 63,831 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
151 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 1,530 | 17,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 612 | 612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 1,530 | 1,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 612 | 28,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 1,020 | 1,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 1,020 | 67,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Herve Rodolphe | officer | Option exercise | 1,991 | 5,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Herve Rodolphe | officer | Option exercise | 1,077 | 3,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Herve Rodolphe | officer | Option exercise | 1,077 | 1,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Herve Rodolphe | officer | Option exercise | 1,991 | 1,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 69,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 5,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Armstrong Mac | director | Option exercise | 112,500 | 217,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Armstrong Mac | director | Option exercise | 112,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Armstrong Mac | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Armstrong Mac | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 108,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 4,429 | 70,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 2,434 | 68,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 2,434 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 4,429 | 8,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Carter Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 820 | 820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Carter Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 492 | 1,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Carter Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 820 | 2,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Carter Timothy | officer | Option exercise | 492 | 492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Notaras Martha | director | Option exercise | 1,722 | 10,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Notaras Martha | director | Option exercise | 1,722 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Fallon Catriona M | director | Award / grant | 1,304 | 9,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BEISER SCOTT L | director | Award / grant | 869 | 869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BEISER SCOTT L | director | Award / grant | 1,304 | 2,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BRADLEY THOMAS A | director | Award / grant | 1,304 | 8,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Bradley Daryl | director | Award / grant | 1,304 | 7,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Middleton Daina | director | Award / grant | 1,304 | 7,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Notaras Martha | director | Award / grant | 1,304 | 9,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Taketa Richard H | director | Award / grant | 1,304 | 46,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 1,020 | 2,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 612 | 1,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Christianson Jon | officer | Option exercise | 1,020 | 67,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 612 | 28,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 1,530 | 3,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Uchida T Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 1,530 | 16,282 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.