Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.10 · now $1.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PLBY has typically landed between $0.75 and $1.52 — a range of −31.8% to +38.0% from the issuance price $1.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,497 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PLBY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.02 (-6.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.8801–$1.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.7497–$1.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,497 windows spanning 2020-08-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-27 | −49.7% | −49.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-28 | −48.9% | −48.9% | +2.8% |
| 2023-09-06 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-03-25 | +212.5% | −5.6% | +212.5% |
| 2021-03-29 | +206.7% | +0.0% | +231.2% |
| 2021-03-26 | +191.1% | −9.5% | +199.7% |
1,497 overlapping windows · 2020-08-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+1.7%
n=6
Feb
50%
−4.4%
n=6
Mar
33%
−3.2%
n=6
Apr
33%
+18.3%
n=6
May
33%
+0.1%
n=6
Jun
33%
−9.1%
n=6
Jul
67%
−0.4%
n=6
Aug
17%
−19.0%
n=6
Sep
29%
−3.8%
n=7
Oct
33%
+5.4%
n=6
Nov
67%
+13.7%
n=6
Dec
50%
+7.2%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 25,900 @ $1.16 | $30K | −15.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,253 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 4,275 @ $1.18 | $5K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 168,153 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 4,283 @ $1.18 | $5K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 172,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 16,558 @ $1.21 | $20K | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 176,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,385,252 @ $1.05 | $1.5M | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,734,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,385,252 @ $1.05 | $1.5M | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,734,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 557,456 @ $1.05 | $585K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,307,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 557,456 @ $1.05 | $585K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,307,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 443,309 @ $1.05 | $465K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,835,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 443,309 @ $1.05 | $465K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,835,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 162,438 @ $1.05 | $171K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 672,438 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 162,438 @ $1.05 | $171K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 672,438 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 143,179 @ $1.05 | $150K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 592,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 143,179 @ $1.05 | $150K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 592,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 66,707 @ $1.05 | $70K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 276,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 66,707 @ $1.05 | $70K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 276,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64,298 @ $1.05 | $68K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 266,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64,298 @ $1.05 | $68K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 266,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 34,504 @ $1.05 | $36K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 34,504 @ $1.05 | $36K | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 106,152 @ $1.14 | $121K | −1.9% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,488,408 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 109,342 @ $1.14 | $124K | −1.9% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,594,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 108,959 @ $1.19 | $129K | −1.9% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,703,902 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Riley Christopher | officer | Sale | 74,949 @ $1.23 | $92K | −4.6% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,542,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Riley Christopher | officer | Sale | 71,471 @ $1.26 | $90K | −4.2% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,617,208 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Sale | 72,000 @ $1.23 | $89K | −5.9% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,147,393 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Sale | 70,954 @ $1.28 | $91K | −5.5% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,219,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Sale | 67,728 @ $1.33 | $90K | −5.0% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,290,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 923,499 @ $1.05 | $970K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,119,718 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 923,499 @ $1.05 | $970K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,119,718 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 371,639 @ $1.05 | $390K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,865,152 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 371,639 @ $1.05 | $390K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,865,152 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 295,540 @ $1.05 | $310K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,278,464 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 295,540 @ $1.05 | $310K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,278,464 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 108,292 @ $1.05 | $114K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 834,876 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 108,292 @ $1.05 | $114K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 834,876 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95,451 @ $1.05 | $100K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 735,894 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95,451 @ $1.05 | $100K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 735,894 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44,472 @ $1.05 | $47K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,854 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44,472 @ $1.05 | $47K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,854 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 42,866 @ $1.05 | $45K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 330,472 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 42,866 @ $1.05 | $45K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 330,472 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | FIG Buyer GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,003 @ $1.05 | $24K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,339 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,003 @ $1.05 | $24K | −11.5% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,339 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 8,193 @ $1.33 | $11K | −4.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,269 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 18,198 @ $1.33 | $24K | −8.3% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 201,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 3,888 @ $1.34 | $5K | −1.7% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 219,660 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 30,816 @ $1.24 | $38K | −12.1% of holding | +15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,548 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Sale | 25,162 @ $1.21 | $30K | −9.0% of holding | +18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 81,771 @ $1.35 | $110K | −1.4% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,812,861 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 82,677 @ $1.43 | $118K | −1.4% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,894,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 97,658 @ $1.39 | $136K | −1.6% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,977,309 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 94,594 @ $1.50 | $142K | −1.5% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,074,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 75,484 @ $1.74 | $131K | −1.2% of holding | −18.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,169,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Sale | 82,401 @ $1.75 | $144K | −5.7% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,358,075 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Sale | 90,383 @ $1.68 | $152K | −5.9% of holding | −22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,440,476 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Sale | 88,893 @ $1.69 | $150K | −5.5% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,530,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Riley Christopher | officer | Sale | 90,896 @ $1.78 | $161K | −5.1% of holding | −30.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,688,679 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Riley Christopher | officer | Sale | 90,674 @ $1.75 | $159K | −4.8% of holding | −29.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,779,575 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Sale | 18,502 @ $1.83 | $34K | −0.3% of holding | −35.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,245,045 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
45 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | RIZVI SUHAIL | director | Other acquisition | 56,488 | 18,147,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Docler Holding S.a r.l. | director | Award / grant | 45,302 | 14,945,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gattyan Gyorgy | director | Award / grant | 45,302 | 14,945,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | CABALQUINTO Jennifer Gajudo | director | Award / grant | 86,207 | 86,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Award / grant | 225,806 | 1,373,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Riley Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 225,806 | 1,768,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Miller David Edward | officer | Award / grant | 225,806 | 700,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Award / grant | 645,161 | 6,133,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Award / grant | 645,161 | 6,263,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Riley Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 350,000 | 1,653,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Riley Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 225,806 | 1,879,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Riley Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 274,187 | 1,303,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Award / grant | 64,516 | 279,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Gattyan Gyorgy | director | Award / grant | 64,516 | 164,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | HILL JULIANA F | director | Award / grant | 64,516 | 372,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Award / grant | 274,187 | 1,043,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Award / grant | 350,000 | 1,393,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Award / grant | 225,806 | 1,619,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Award / grant | 783,392 | 4,618,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 5,618,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | RIZVI SUHAIL | director | Award / grant | 41,935 | 488,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | RIZVI SUHAIL | director | Award / grant | 64,516 | 552,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Miller David Edward | officer | Award / grant | 225,806 | 474,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Yaffe James | director | Award / grant | 64,516 | 379,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Miller David Edward | officer | Award / grant | 248,869 | 248,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Withheld for tax | 102,120 | 3,834,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Withheld for tax | 97,430 | 873,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Riley Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 73,165 | 1,029,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Withheld for tax | 408,901 | 3,937,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Riley Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 167,301 | 1,102,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | CROSSMAN MARC | officer | Withheld for tax | 103,216 | 971,224 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Premovic Natalia | director | Other acquisition | 68,027 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Premovic Natalia | director | Award / grant | 68,027 | 68,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Edmonds Tracey E | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 290,010 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | RIZVI SUHAIL | director | Award / grant | 48,750 | 346,384 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | RIZVI SUHAIL | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 446,384 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Kohn Bernhard L III | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 4,373,415 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | HILL JULIANA F | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 307,653 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Yaffe James | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 314,976 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Gattyan Gyorgy | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.