Issued 2026-09-16 at $45.07 · now $45.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PKOH has typically landed between $36.04 and $56.72 — a range of −20.0% to +25.9% from the issuance price $45.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($45.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PKOH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $45.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $45.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.72 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.86–$49.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.04–$56.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −68.2% | −68.2% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −68.1% | −68.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-23 | −64.4% | −64.4% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-10 | +196.6% | −0.9% | +196.6% |
| 2009-07-13 | +195.7% | +0.0% | +199.1% |
| 2009-07-14 | +183.7% | +0.0% | +187.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−1.3%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Mar
35%
+0.0%
n=20
Apr
65%
+5.0%
n=20
May
55%
+2.4%
n=20
Jun
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Jul
55%
+3.9%
n=20
Aug
50%
+2.9%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.5%
n=20
Oct
60%
+0.0%
n=20
Nov
70%
+6.5%
n=20
Dec
60%
+4.2%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | WERT JAMES W | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $46.21 | $92K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,456 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | WERT JAMES W | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $46.53 | $47K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 93,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | WERT JAMES W | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $46.01 | $46K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | WERT JAMES W | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $46.18 | $46K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 95,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 625 @ $45.23 | $28K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,624 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 525 @ $45.11 | $24K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,193 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 429 @ $45.17 | $19K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,764 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 409 @ $44.79 | $18K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,851 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 387 @ $44.91 | $17K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 328 @ $45.30 | $15K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,244 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 303 @ $45.19 | $14K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,253 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 210 @ $44.98 | $9K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,524 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 210 @ $44.81 | $9K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,641 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 208 @ $45.18 | $9K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,556 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 201 @ $45.34 | $9K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,845 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 200 @ $45.26 | $9K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,328 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 198 @ $45.50 | $9K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,452 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 198 @ $45.31 | $9K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 195 @ $44.92 | $9K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,859 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 192 @ $45.03 | $9K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,036 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 192 @ $44.78 | $9K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 113 @ $45.07 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 107 @ $45.29 | $5K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 100 @ $45.05 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 100 @ $45.04 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,936 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 100 @ $45.01 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,324 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 100 @ $44.99 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,424 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 100 @ $44.95 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,741 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 99 @ $45.36 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 100 @ $44.86 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,441 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 100 @ $44.83 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 99 @ $45.28 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,229 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 96 @ $45.38 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,650 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 96 @ $45.24 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,528 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 96 @ $45.02 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 10 @ $44.93 | $449 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,849 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 8 @ $44.94 | $360 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,841 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 7 @ $44.96 | $315 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,734 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 5 @ $45.09 | $225 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,718 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Sale | 4 @ $45.22 | $181 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,249 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Sale | 6,109 @ $48.00 | $293K | −3.6% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $48.51 | $243K | −3.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 4,629 @ $50.00 | $231K | −2.4% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 2,885 @ $50.10 | $145K | −1.5% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 1,775 @ $50.11 | $89K | −1.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 184,224 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 749 @ $50.09 | $38K | −0.4% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 602 @ $49.74 | $30K | −0.3% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 500 @ $49.94 | $25K | −0.3% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,262 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Sale | 477 @ $48.50 | $23K | −0.3% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 200 @ $50.14 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 184,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Sale | 200 @ $48.53 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 180 @ $49.62 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Sale | 130 @ $48.10 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 118 @ $49.90 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 100 @ $49.88 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,962 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 100 @ $49.71 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 82 @ $49.91 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 40 @ $49.73 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Sale | 40 @ $49.72 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Sale | 30 @ $48.09 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | WERT JAMES W | director | Gift | 1,000 | 90,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | CRAWFORD MATTHEW V | director | Gift | 25,000 | 870,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | CLARKE ANDREW C | director | Award / grant | 8 | 3,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | GRAMPA JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 93 | 36,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | MOORE DAN T III | director | Award / grant | 27 | 10,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | AULETTA PATRICK V | director | Award / grant | 59 | 23,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | CRAWFORD MATTHEW V | director | Withheld for tax | 8,810 | 895,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,712 | 196,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,670 | 168,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Award / grant | 14,487 | 199,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Award / grant | 15,866 | 172,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | CRAWFORD MATTHEW V | director | Award / grant | 48,289 | 903,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | CRAWFORD MATTHEW V | director | Withheld for tax | 13,199 | 855,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,266 | 192,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,229 | 156,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | CRAWFORD MATTHEW V | director | Withheld for tax | 22,175 | 868,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | VILSACK ROBERT D | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,952 | 196,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | FOGARTY PATRICK W | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,896 | 159,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | AULETTA PATRICK V | director | Award / grant | 1,536 | 10,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | WERT JAMES W | director | Award / grant | 3,072 | 96,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rosen Steven H | director | Award / grant | 3,072 | 56,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | ROMNEY RONNA | director | Award / grant | 3,072 | 30,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | MOORE DAN T III | director | Award / grant | 3,072 | 52,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hanna Howard W IV | director | Award / grant | 3,072 | 24,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GRAMPA JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 3,072 | 19,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | CLARKE ANDREW C | director | Award / grant | 3,072 | 3,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | AULETTA PATRICK V | director | Award / grant | 1,536 | 23,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | AULETTA PATRICK V | director | Award / grant | 88 | 21,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | GRAMPA JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 149 | 36,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MOORE DAN T III | director | Award / grant | 44 | 10,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | GRAMPA JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 168 | 36,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | AULETTA PATRICK V | director | Award / grant | 99 | 21,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MOORE DAN T III | director | Award / grant | 49 | 10,788 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | CRAWFORD MATTHEW V | director | Gift | 20,265 | 890,972 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | AULETTA PATRICK V | director | Award / grant | 125 | 21,497 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | GRAMPA JOHN D | director | Award / grant | 212 | 36,447 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | MOORE DAN T III | director | Award / grant | 62 | 10,739 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | CLARKE ANDREW C | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 14,804 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | AULETTA PATRICK V | director | Award / grant | 137 | 21,372 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | MOORE DAN T III | director | Award / grant | 68 | 10,677 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.