PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaConsumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $231.45 · now $231.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PKG has typically landed between $210.18 and $256.96 — a range of −9.2% to +11.0% from the issuance price $231.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($231.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PKG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $231.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$210.18worst · -9.2%$256.96best · +11.0%
  • now $231.45 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $235.83 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $225.48–$246.17
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $210.18–$256.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−37.4%−37.4%+0.0%
2008-09-25−36.0%−36.0%+0.0%
2008-10-22−33.7%−33.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+41.6%−0.2%+43.0%
2009-06-23+40.9%+0.0%+40.9%
2009-06-22+38.7%+0.0%+38.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$22.7B
market cap
$7.70
EPS (TTM)
33.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$9.0B
'20'25
Net income$769M
'20'25
Free cash flow$729M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr8.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr16.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.95
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $231.45$170.79$278.42
  • DCF (intrinsic)$178.22
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$183.42
  • Analyst target · range $246.00–$271.00$256.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$231.45

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+2.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Mar
58%
+2.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.7%
n=19
May
68%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
79%
+6.3%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
63%
−0.0%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$257$1882026-08-20: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Shirley Donald R.2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Hassfurther Thomas A2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Hassfurther Thomas A2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Hassfurther Thomas A2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — KOWLZAN MARK W2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $2.8M — Hassfurther Thomas A2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $5.4M — KOWLZAN MARK W2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $5.4M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $2.8M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $2.0M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $10.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Shirley Donald R. — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hassfurther Thomas A — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hassfurther Thomas A — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed same dayofficer Hassfurther Thomas A — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KOWLZAN MARK W — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hassfurther Thomas A — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KOWLZAN MARK W — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Shirley Donald R.officerSale12,000 @ $250.71$3.0M−38.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open19,110Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07Hassfurther Thomas AofficerSale7,063 @ $254.00$1.8M−3.4% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open202,891Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05Hassfurther Thomas AofficerSale8,797 @ $257.00$2.3M−4.0% of holding−8.8%not yet — horizon still open209,954Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03Hassfurther Thomas AofficerSale12,531 @ $250.00$3.1M−5.4% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open218,751Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27KOWLZAN MARK WdirectorSale9,266 @ $217.08$2.0M−1.9% of holding+14.1%not yet — horizon still open473,610Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05Hassfurther Thomas AofficerSale12,129 @ $230.50$2.8M−5.8% of holding−4.0%−2.9%197,062Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-11KOWLZAN MARK WdirectorSale25,000 @ $215.97$5.4M−5.4% of holding−3.8%−0.7%437,378Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-12BEEBE CHERYL KdirectorAward / grant59115,104Form 4
2026-05-12Farrington Duane CdirectorAward / grant5917,243Form 4
2026-05-12GOWLAND KAREN EdirectorAward / grant5912,118Form 4
2026-05-12PORTER ROGER BdirectorAward / grant59122,604Form 4
2026-05-12Harman Donna A.directorAward / grant5915,179Form 4
2026-05-12LYONS ROBERT CdirectorAward / grant59113,429Form 4
2026-05-12SOULELES THOMAS SdirectorAward / grant59111,202Form 4
2026-05-12MENCOFF SAMUEL MdirectorAward / grant591270,194Form 4
2026-03-27KOWLZAN MARK WdirectorWithheld for tax20,513482,876Form 4
2026-03-27Hassfurther Thomas AofficerWithheld for tax12,615231,282Form 4
2026-03-27Carter Charles J.officerWithheld for tax3,50950,621Form 4
2026-03-27Pflederer Kent A.officerWithheld for tax2,67073,061Form 4
2026-03-27Shirley Donald R.officerWithheld for tax2,65031,110Form 4
2026-03-27Olivier Darla J.officerWithheld for tax1,05527,397Form 4
2026-03-27Olivier Darla J.officerAward / grant2,26028,279Form 4
2026-03-27Shirley Donald R.officerAward / grant47833,760Form 4
2026-03-27Olivier Darla J.officerAward / grant17328,452Form 4
2026-03-27Shirley Donald R.officerAward / grant6,25433,282Form 4
2026-03-27Pflederer Kent A.officerAward / grant5,59675,303Form 4
2026-03-27Pflederer Kent A.officerAward / grant42875,731Form 4
2026-03-27Hassfurther Thomas AofficerAward / grant29,778241,618Form 4
2026-03-27Hassfurther Thomas AofficerAward / grant2,279243,897Form 4
2026-03-27KOWLZAN MARK WdirectorAward / grant43,010500,097Form 4
2026-03-27Carter Charles J.officerAward / grant8,28253,496Form 4
2026-03-27Carter Charles J.officerAward / grant63454,130Form 4
2026-03-27KOWLZAN MARK WdirectorAward / grant3,292503,389Form 4
2026-03-06KOWLZAN MARK WdirectorWithheld for tax8,025457,087Form 4
2026-03-06Hassfurther Thomas AofficerWithheld for tax4,917211,840Form 4
2026-03-06Carter Charles J.officerWithheld for tax1,85745,214Form 4
2026-03-06Pflederer Kent A.officerWithheld for tax1,41269,707Form 4
2026-03-06Shirley Donald R.officerWithheld for tax1,40227,028Form 4
2026-03-06Olivier Darla J.officerWithheld for tax55926,019Form 4
2026-03-06Hassfurther Thomas AofficerAward / grant1,018216,757Form 4
2026-03-06Shirley Donald R.officerAward / grant3,27028,140Form 4
2026-03-06Shirley Donald R.officerAward / grant29028,430Form 4
2026-03-06Carter Charles J.officerAward / grant4,33146,687Form 4
2026-03-06Carter Charles J.officerAward / grant38447,071Form 4
2026-03-06Hassfurther Thomas AofficerAward / grant11,474215,739Form 4
2026-03-06Olivier Darla J.officerAward / grant10426,578Form 4
2026-03-06KOWLZAN MARK WdirectorAward / grant16,637463,636Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-06-052026-05-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-24$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-05-062026-04-29$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-17$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-09-112025-08-04$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-08-142025-07-22$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-08-142025-07-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.