Issued 2026-09-16 at $152.60 · now $152.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PJT has typically landed between $133.66 and $176.23 — a range of −12.4% to +15.5% from the issuance price $152.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,741 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-09-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($152.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PJT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $152.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $152.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $155.44 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $147.06–$163.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $133.66–$176.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −51.9% | −51.9% | +1.2% |
| 2020-02-19 | −47.6% | −52.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −46.4% | −51.2% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +79.0% | +0.0% | +87.1% |
| 2020-03-19 | +56.9% | −0.6% | +69.6% |
| 2020-03-20 | +56.6% | +0.0% | +70.6% |
2,741 overlapping windows · 2015-09-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Sale | 6,987 @ $173.41 | $1.2M | −26.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,723 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Costos James | director | Sale | 1,723 @ $175.00 | $302K | −13.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,289 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Sale | 858 @ $174.04 | $149K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,865 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Rafferty Emily K | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $167.35 | $184K | −10.3% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,568 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-31 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Sale | 1,283 @ $167.67 | $215K | −72.0% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | Travin David Adam | officer | Sale | 2,748 @ $152.38 | $419K | −54.4% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,304 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Travin David Adam | officer | Sale | 252 @ $152.92 | $39K | −10.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Meates Helen T | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $153.19 | $1.2M | −12.0% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,466 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-07 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Sale | 1,504 @ $176.89 | $266K | −75.0% of holding | −0.4% | −18.1% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Travin David Adam | officer | Sale | 2,288 @ $178.06 | $407K | −100.0% of holding | −1.8% | −12.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Sale | 7,351 @ $150.41 | $1.1M | −42.7% of holding | +4.6% | −4.8% | 9,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-30 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Sale | 2,052 @ $149.53 | $307K | −10.7% of holding | +4.6% | −4.8% | 17,198 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-30 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $150.98 | $151K | −10.2% of holding | +4.6% | −4.8% | 8,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-29 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Sale | 9,597 @ $151.08 | $1.4M | −33.3% of holding | +4.5% | −4.2% | 19,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Travin David Adam | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $141.74 | $709K | −68.6% of holding | +0.6% | −8.4% | 2,288 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
167 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Taubman Paul J | director | Option exercise | 36,000 | 5,352,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Lee Ji-Yeun | officer | Award / grant | 30 | 18,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Meates Helen T | officer | Award / grant | 21 | 13,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Award / grant | 8 | 5,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Whitney Kenneth C | director | Award / grant | 8 | 5,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Travin David Adam | officer | Award / grant | 11 | 7,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rafferty Emily K | director | Award / grant | 8 | 5,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | RYAN THOMAS M | director | Award / grant | 17 | 11,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | CURRIE PETER L S | director | Award / grant | 3 | 3,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Costos James | director | Award / grant | 14 | 9,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Award / grant | 30 | 30,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Costos James | director | Option exercise | 1,929 | 8,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | CURRIE PETER L S | director | Award / grant | 1,600 | 3,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cornwell Kievdi Don | director | Award / grant | 1,600 | 30,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Costos James | director | Award / grant | 1,200 | 9,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rafferty Emily K | director | Option exercise | 1,541 | 5,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rafferty Emily K | director | Award / grant | 800 | 5,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | RYAN THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 2,570 | 10,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | RYAN THOMAS M | director | Award / grant | 1,600 | 11,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Option exercise | 1,283 | 5,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Award / grant | 800 | 5,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Whitney Kenneth C | director | Option exercise | 1,283 | 5,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Whitney Kenneth C | director | Award / grant | 800 | 5,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Whitney Kenneth C | director | Option exercise | 1,283 | 12,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | RYAN THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 2,570 | 41,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rafferty Emily K | director | Option exercise | 1,541 | 10,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Costos James | director | Option exercise | 1,929 | 13,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Option exercise | 1,283 | 1,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Costos James | director | Option exercise | 1,929 | 13,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | RYAN THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 2,570 | 41,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Rafferty Emily K | director | Option exercise | 1,541 | 10,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Option exercise | 1,283 | 1,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Whitney Kenneth C | director | Option exercise | 1,283 | 12,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Taubman Paul J | director | Option exercise | 36,000 | 5,388,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lee Ji-Yeun | officer | Award / grant | 35 | 18,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Skaugen Grace Reksten | director | Award / grant | 12 | 6,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Meates Helen T | officer | Award / grant | 25 | 13,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Travin David Adam | officer | Award / grant | 14 | 7,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Whitney Kenneth C | director | Award / grant | 12 | 6,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | CURRIE PETER L S | director | Award / grant | 3 | 1,742 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.