Issued 2026-09-16 at $177.59 · now $177.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PI has typically landed between $128.71 and $245.01 — a range of −27.5% to +38.0% from the issuance price $177.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,532 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-07-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($177.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $177.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $177.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $180.99 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $154.57–$207.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $128.71–$245.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,532 windows spanning 2016-07-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −61.8% | −61.8% | +7.5% |
| 2020-02-20 | −60.5% | −64.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −59.4% | −64.0% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-16 | +89.4% | +0.0% | +89.4% |
| 2025-04-15 | +83.4% | −0.5% | +83.5% |
| 2025-04-11 | +82.4% | −1.1% | +82.4% |
2,532 overlapping windows · 2016-07-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.8%
n=10
Feb
40%
−7.1%
n=10
Mar
50%
−5.8%
n=10
Apr
60%
+12.0%
n=10
May
80%
+11.3%
n=10
Jun
50%
+5.7%
n=10
Jul
60%
+6.5%
n=10
Aug
82%
+7.3%
n=11
Sep
55%
+7.1%
n=11
Oct
50%
+1.3%
n=10
Nov
70%
+8.8%
n=10
Dec
50%
−4.3%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | WASHINGTON MIRON | director | Sale | 800 @ $173.26 | $139K | −15.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,354 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Baker Cary | officer | Sale | 1,429 @ $185.00 | $264K | −1.6% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 12,105 @ $127.36 | $1.5M | −1.5% of holding | +12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 782,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 33,000 @ $130.07 | $4.3M | −4.0% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 795,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 12,528 @ $125.97 | $1.6M | −1.5% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 828,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 35,877 @ $122.50 | $4.4M | −4.1% of holding | +17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 840,576 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 11,602 @ $128.87 | $1.5M | −1.3% of holding | +17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 876,453 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 33,412 @ $136.84 | $4.6M | −3.6% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 888,055 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 6,313 @ $139.17 | $879K | −0.7% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 921,467 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 38,724 @ $142.31 | $5.5M | −4.0% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 927,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 7,163 @ $144.29 | $1.0M | −0.7% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 966,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 48,504 @ $150.78 | $7.3M | −4.7% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 973,667 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 24,126 @ $154.46 | $3.7M | +2.4% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,034,877 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 12,706 @ $154.46 | $2.0M | +1.3% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,022,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 25,896 @ $152.73 | $4.0M | −2.4% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,070,085 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 9,522 @ $149.97 | $1.4M | +0.9% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,059,003 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 1,560 @ $151.32 | $236K | +0.1% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,068,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 36,171 @ $152.73 | $5.5M | −3.1% of holding | −15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,132,152 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 134,629 @ $150.36 | $20.2M | −10.6% of holding | +10.0% | −28.8% | 1,132,152 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 50,573 @ $146.62 | $7.4M | −3.8% of holding | +23.2% | −21.5% | 1,266,781 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 95,345 @ $152.87 | $14.6M | −6.7% of holding | +29.8% | −20.7% | 1,317,354 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 84,604 @ $155.49 | $13.2M | −5.7% of holding | +29.8% | −22.9% | 1,412,699 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 40 @ $160.01 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +31.8% | −25.5% | 1,497,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 2,494 @ $160.72 | $401K | −0.2% of holding | +30.3% | −29.3% | 1,497,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 1,373 @ $161.04 | $221K | −0.1% of holding | +22.9% | −29.1% | 1,499,837 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 3,167 @ $160.59 | $509K | −0.2% of holding | +21.9% | −26.1% | 1,501,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 41,221 @ $167.97 | $6.9M | −2.7% of holding | +6.8% | −34.8% | 1,504,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 41,874 @ $168.23 | $7.0M | −2.6% of holding | +6.4% | −30.7% | 1,545,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 31,058 @ $167.02 | $5.2M | −1.9% of holding | +6.5% | −26.7% | 1,587,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 22,297 @ $172.62 | $3.8M | −1.4% of holding | −2.7% | −28.4% | 1,618,530 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 34,556 @ $171.80 | $5.9M | −2.1% of holding | −2.2% | −29.7% | 1,640,827 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 46,110 @ $167.73 | $7.7M | −2.7% of holding | +2.6% | −21.4% | 1,675,383 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 31,952 @ $159.42 | $5.1M | −1.8% of holding | +9.3% | −13.8% | 1,721,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 3,046 @ $155.10 | $472K | −0.2% of holding | +7.3% | −11.8% | 1,753,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 8,081 @ $156.32 | $1.3M | −0.5% of holding | +15.2% | −7.8% | 1,756,491 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 3,772 @ $156.30 | $590K | −0.2% of holding | −4.8% | −18.1% | 1,764,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $155.63 | $4.7M | −1.7% of holding | −2.5% | −16.9% | 1,768,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 6,246 @ $162.16 | $1.0M | −0.3% of holding | −6.2% | −20.0% | 1,798,344 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | WASHINGTON MIRON | director | Sale | 342 @ $158.94 | $54K | −14.4% of holding | −6.2% | −20.0% | 2,040 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 23,157 @ $171.95 | $4.0M | −1.3% of holding | −8.2% | −20.0% | 1,804,590 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 1,513 @ $202.01 | $306K | −0.1% of holding | −12.6% | −25.3% | 1,827,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 1,821 @ $186.43 | $339K | −0.6% of holding | +1.6% | −49.9% | 299,288 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 1,073 @ $187.52 | $201K | −0.4% of holding | +1.6% | −49.9% | 298,215 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 850 @ $189.21 | $161K | −0.3% of holding | +1.6% | −49.9% | 297,365 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 340 @ $190.26 | $65K | −0.1% of holding | +1.6% | −49.9% | 297,025 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 12 @ $191.76 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +1.6% | −49.9% | 297,013 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 1,909 @ $181.84 | $347K | −0.6% of holding | +3.2% | −50.0% | 303,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 1,260 @ $182.77 | $230K | −0.4% of holding | +3.2% | −50.0% | 301,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 796 @ $183.47 | $146K | −0.3% of holding | +3.2% | −50.0% | 301,109 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 568 @ $179.26 | $102K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −50.0% | 305,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 467 @ $180.65 | $84K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −50.0% | 305,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $196.24 | $58.9M | −14.1% of holding | +5.0% | −54.6% | 1,829,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 1,332 @ $194.18 | $259K | −0.4% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 338,738 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 1,120 @ $195.10 | $219K | −0.3% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 337,618 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 790 @ $197.23 | $156K | −0.2% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 336,579 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 510 @ $192.84 | $98K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 340,070 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 330 @ $190.42 | $63K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 340,779 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 303 @ $197.86 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 336,276 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 249 @ $196.34 | $49K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 337,369 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-09 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Sale | 199 @ $191.30 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | −53.9% | 340,580 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
189 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Gift | 10,000 | 354,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,477 | 364,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Baker Cary | officer | Withheld for tax | 685 | 89,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Baker Cary | officer | Option exercise | 1,739 | 5,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Option exercise | 3,753 | 365,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Option exercise | 3,753 | 11,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Baker Cary | officer | Option exercise | 1,739 | 89,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Gift | 10,000 | 362,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Gift | 10,000 | 372,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,197 | 382,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Baker Cary | officer | Withheld for tax | 424 | 89,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Baker Cary | officer | Option exercise | 479 | 1,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Baker Cary | officer | Option exercise | 597 | 4,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Option exercise | 1,223 | 381,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Option exercise | 1,817 | 383,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Baker Cary | officer | Option exercise | 479 | 89,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Option exercise | 1,223 | 3,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Option exercise | 1,817 | 12,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Baker Cary | officer | Option exercise | 597 | 90,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Gift | 10,000 | 380,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | WASHINGTON MIRON | director | Award / grant | 1,896 | 1,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Gibson Daniel Patrick | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 23,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Gibson Daniel Patrick | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Gibson Daniel Patrick | director | Award / grant | 1,896 | 1,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sanghi Steve | director | Option exercise | 3,425 | 13,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sanghi Steve | director | Option exercise | 3,425 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sanghi Steve | director | Award / grant | 2,085 | 2,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | PADVAL UMESH | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 6,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | PADVAL UMESH | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | PADVAL UMESH | director | Award / grant | 1,896 | 1,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Rao Meera | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 11,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Rao Meera | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Rao Meera | director | Award / grant | 1,896 | 1,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Valdez Arthur L Jr | director | Award / grant | 1,896 | 1,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | WASHINGTON MIRON | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 5,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | WASHINGTON MIRON | director | Option exercise | 3,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Other acquisition | 180,000 | 390,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Other acquisition | 180,000 | 570,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | DIORIO CHRIS PH.D. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,218 | 390,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Baker Cary | officer | Withheld for tax | 732 | 89,003 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.