PHMPulteGroup, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $117.55 · now $117.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PHM has typically landed between $103.83 and $135.85 — a range of −11.7% to +15.6% from the issuance price $117.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($117.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PHM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $117.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$103.83worst · -11.7%$135.85best · +15.6%
  • now $117.55 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $119.86 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $112.38–$127.33
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103.83–$135.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−61.6%−61.6%+0.0%
2020-02-18−58.2%−58.2%+0.0%
2020-02-19−57.9%−58.1%+0.3%
3 best
2008-01-08+70.0%+0.0%+88.7%
2008-01-09+65.0%+0.0%+86.2%
2008-01-15+62.1%+0.0%+85.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$24.9B
market cap
$9.74
EPS (TTM)
13.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$17.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.19
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $117.55$106.72$241.30
  • DCF (intrinsic)$154.85
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$232.02
  • Analyst target · range $116.00–$166.00$147.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$117.55

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+5.0%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.8%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.2%
n=19
May
37%
−0.8%
n=19
Jun
58%
−0.8%
n=19
Jul
63%
+5.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.6%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.2%
n=18
Nov
83%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
50%
+2.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$142$1102026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $895K — Koart Matthew William2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $391K — Snyder Lila2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $730K — HENRY KEVIN A2026-02-06: 3 insider sales, $4.5M — Koart Matthew William, Sheldon Todd N, O'Meara Brien P.2026-02-05: 2 insider sales, $19.9M — MARSHALL RYAN, FOLLIARD THOMAS J2025-08-14: 2 insider sales, $2.9M — OShaughnessy Robert, O'Meara Brien P.2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $25.1M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Koart Matthew William — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed same daydirector Snyder Lila — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same daydirector HENRY KEVIN A — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed same dayofficer Koart Matthew William — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed same dayofficer Sheldon Todd N — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed same dayofficer O'Meara Brien P. — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed same daydirector MARSHALL RYAN — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FOLLIARD THOMAS J — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector OShaughnessy Robert — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer O'Meara Brien P. — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-27Koart Matthew WilliamofficerSale7,457 @ $120.00$895K−21.0% of holding+18.4%not yet — horizon still open28,100Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08Snyder LiladirectorSale3,339 @ $117.18$391K−48.5% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open3,540Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-24HENRY KEVIN AdirectorSale5,173 @ $141.03$730K−26.1% of holding−11.8%−18.7%14,673Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06Koart Matthew WilliamofficerSale15,309 @ $135.79$2.1M−26.5% of holding−6.0%−15.8%42,418Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06Sheldon Todd NofficerSale14,220 @ $135.01$1.9M−16.9% of holding−6.0%−15.8%69,753Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06O'Meara Brien P.officerSale4,000 @ $135.51$542K−31.7% of holding−6.0%−15.8%8,601Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05MARSHALL RYANdirectorSale111,250 @ $133.86$14.9M−14.4% of holding−5.6%−15.2%659,392Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05FOLLIARD THOMAS JdirectorSale37,000 @ $134.04$5.0M−81.8% of holding−5.6%−15.2%8,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14OShaughnessy RobertdirectorSale21,927 @ $128.03$2.8M−25.4% of holding+2.4%+5.0%64,264Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14O'Meara Brien P.officerSale814 @ $127.97$104K−7.2% of holding+2.4%+5.0%10,558Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13Sheldon Todd NofficerSale15,191 @ $106.50$1.6M−16.9% of holding+4.3%+15.0%74,758Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13O'Meara Brien P.officerSale3,500 @ $106.40$372K−23.5% of holding+4.3%+15.0%11,372Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-10ANDERSON BRIAN PdirectorSale2,500 @ $106.45$266K−4.2% of holding+4.7%+9.3%56,617Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-30BLAIR BRYCEdirectorGift7,639126,733Form 4
2026-07-30BLAIR BRYCEdirectorGift7,63916,800Form 4
2026-06-22HENRY KEVIN AdirectorWithheld for tax2,09312,580Form 4
2026-05-18Koart Matthew WilliamofficerWithheld for tax6,86135,557Form 4
2026-04-29POWERS SCOTT FdirectorAward / grant1,5078,139Form 4
2026-04-29Hawaux Andre JdirectorAward / grant1,50775,326Form 4
2026-04-29Peshkin John R.directorAward / grant1,50731,050Form 4
2026-04-29GANNON KRISTIN F.directorAward / grant1,5071,799Form 4
2026-04-29Actis-Grande KristendirectorAward / grant1,5074,867Form 4
2026-04-29GRISE CHERYL WdirectorAward / grant1,50712,410Form 4
2026-04-29BLAIR BRYCEdirectorAward / grant1,507134,372Form 4
2026-04-29FOLLIARD THOMAS JdirectorAward / grant1,50731,730Form 4
2026-04-29Schall BenjamindirectorAward / grant1,5071,507Form 4
2026-04-29Snyder LiladirectorAward / grant1,5076,879Form 4
2026-02-10GANNON KRISTIN F.directorAward / grant292292Form 4
2026-02-05MARSHALL RYANdirectorGift3,750655,642Form 4
2026-02-04MARSHALL RYANdirectorWithheld for tax53,813741,472Form 4
2026-02-04OShaughnessy RobertdirectorWithheld for tax14,64475,205Form 4
2026-02-04Koart Matthew WilliamofficerWithheld for tax13,24649,125Form 4
2026-02-04Sheldon Todd NofficerWithheld for tax6,92079,485Form 4
2026-02-04HENRY KEVIN AdirectorWithheld for tax4,18716,854Form 4
2026-02-04OSSOWSKI JAMES LofficerWithheld for tax3,65716,398Form 4
2026-02-04O'Meara Brien P.officerWithheld for tax1,96611,591Form 4
2026-02-04HENRY KEVIN AdirectorAward / grant9,30421,041Form 4
2026-02-04Koart Matthew WilliamofficerAward / grant28,35062,371Form 4
2026-02-04Koart Matthew WilliamofficerAward / grant8,60257,727Form 4
2026-02-04Sheldon Todd NofficerAward / grant15,53586,405Form 4
2026-02-04Sheldon Todd NofficerAward / grant4,48883,973Form 4
2026-02-04OSSOWSKI JAMES LofficerAward / grant8,11220,055Form 4
2026-02-04O'Meara Brien P.officerAward / grant4,48913,557Form 4
2026-02-04O'Meara Brien P.officerAward / grant1,01012,601Form 4
2026-02-04OSSOWSKI JAMES LofficerAward / grant6,28322,681Form 4
2026-02-04OShaughnessy RobertdirectorAward / grant32,79589,849Form 4
2026-02-04OShaughnessy RobertdirectorAward / grant4,11479,319Form 4
2026-02-04MARSHALL RYANdirectorAward / grant120,818795,285Form 4
2026-02-04MARSHALL RYANdirectorAward / grant29,170770,642Form 4
2026-02-04HENRY KEVIN AdirectorAward / grant2,99219,846Form 4
2026-02-02MARSHALL RYANdirectorWithheld for tax27,598674,467Form 4
2026-02-02OShaughnessy RobertdirectorWithheld for tax7,21057,054Form 4
2026-02-02Sheldon Todd NofficerWithheld for tax2,45271,306Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-03-092025-02-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2024-05-152024-04-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-05-062024-04-26$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatepurchase2023-11-162023-10-17$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2023-05-112023-04-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-12-062022-11-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-11-03$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.