Issued 2026-09-25 at $7.30 · now $7.30 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PHAT has typically landed between $4.85 and $10.28 — a range of −33.6% to +40.8% from the issuance price $7.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,716 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($7.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PHAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $7.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.2 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.13–$8.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.85–$10.28
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-05 | −53.7% | −53.7% | +0.7% |
| 2024-11-04 | −52.7% | −54.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-12 | −51.7% | −51.7% | +3.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-08 | +291.7% | +0.0% | +291.7% |
| 2025-05-07 | +267.9% | −4.6% | +267.9% |
| 2025-05-14 | +227.4% | +0.0% | +227.4% |
1,716 overlapping windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study in Adult Participants With EoE to Evaluate Vonoprazan 20 mg Compared to Placebo After 12 Weeks and to Evaluate Vonoprazan 20 mg Up to 24 Weeks (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Sale | 524 @ $13.51 | $7K | −1.1% of holding | +6.8% | −15.7% | 47,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Sale | 461 @ $12.09 | $6K | −1.0% of holding | −10.0% | −15.4% | 47,931 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Sale | 1,692 @ $8.36 | $14K | −3.4% of holding | +22.4% | +70.5% | 48,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Topper James N | director | Purchase | 3,780 @ $3.86 | $15K | +6.8% of holding | +145.8% | +255.6% | 59,403 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Topper James N | director | Purchase | 6,300 @ $3.32 | $21K | +12.8% of holding | +224.8% | +341.9% | 55,623 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Topper James N | director | Purchase | 1,120 @ $3.16 | $4K | +2.3% of holding | +219.7% | +324.6% | 49,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Topper James N | director | Purchase | 12,601 @ $3.04 | $38K | +35.4% of holding | +214.9% | +338.0% | 48,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Topper James N | director | Purchase | 33,376 @ $3.19 | $107K | ownership Δ n/a | +181.3% | +315.8% | 33,376 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Topper James N | director | Purchase | 2,226 @ $3.62 | $8K | +6.7% of holding | +181.3% | +315.8% | 35,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Parikh Asit | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.40 | $12K | +5.5% of holding | +261.0% | +423.2% | 95,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Parikh Asit | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.60 | $13K | +5.8% of holding | +89.3% | +431.4% | 90,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Henderson Molly | officer | Sale | 3,678 @ $4.55 | $17K | −3.9% of holding | −62.0% | +92.7% | 89,868 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Parikh Asit | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.42 | $44K | +13.2% of holding | +18.5% | +151.5% | 85,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Curran Terrie | director | Sale | 19,109 @ $6.59 | $126K | −5.0% of holding | −19.6% | +27.5% | 360,465 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Nabulsi Azmi | officer | Sale | 7,886 @ $6.59 | $52K | −3.3% of holding | −19.6% | +27.5% | 233,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Henderson Molly | officer | Sale | 6,583 @ $6.59 | $43K | −6.6% of holding | −19.6% | +27.5% | 93,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Nabulsi Azmi | officer | Sale | 1,118 @ $8.00 | $9K | −0.5% of holding | −12.7% | +16.7% | 239,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | KARBE FRANK | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $7.93 | $99K | +28.1% of holding | −10.0% | +32.8% | 57,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Parikh Asit | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $8.12 | $81K | +15.3% of holding | −10.0% | +32.8% | 75,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-15 | Curran Terrie | director | Sale | 33,848 @ $11.72 | $397K | −8.2% of holding | −0.5% | −50.8% | 377,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-15 | Nabulsi Azmi | officer | Sale | 10,901 @ $11.72 | $128K | −4.3% of holding | −0.5% | −50.8% | 240,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-15 | Henderson Molly | officer | Sale | 4,325 @ $11.72 | $51K | −4.2% of holding | −0.5% | −50.8% | 99,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-08 | Henderson Molly | officer | Sale | 3,435 @ $11.10 | $38K | −3.5% of holding | −7.5% | +34.8% | 95,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-22 | Curran Terrie | director | Sale | 16,851 @ $9.11 | $154K | −3.9% of holding | −14.8% | +51.2% | 410,784 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 460 | 59,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,555 | 59,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Parikh Asit | director | Gift | 28,000 | 148,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Parikh Asit | director | Gift | 28,000 | 24,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | COLA MICHAEL F | director | Award / grant | 24,122 | 63,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | KARBE FRANK | director | Award / grant | 24,122 | 91,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Schroeder Theodore R | director | Award / grant | 24,122 | 45,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Stenhouse Mark | director | Award / grant | 24,122 | 54,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Topper James N | director | Award / grant | 24,122 | 66,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | FIELDS HEIDI | director | Award / grant | 24,122 | 54,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Parikh Asit | director | Gift | 40,000 | 120,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Parikh Asit | director | Gift | 40,000 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 964 | 61,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 414 | 61,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Award / grant | 2,790 | 62,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Award / grant | 13,000 | 60,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Basta Steven L | director | Withheld for tax | 6,277 | 373,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Cook Anne Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,535 | 88,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Cook Anne Marie | officer | Award / grant | 3,461 | 90,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Basta Steven L | director | Award / grant | 12,362 | 379,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Parikh Asit | director | Gift | 80,500 | 50,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Parikh Asit | director | Gift | 80,500 | 80,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 776 | 47,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Parikh Asit | director | Option exercise | 8,750 | 131,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Parikh Asit | director | Option exercise | 8,750 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Cook Anne Marie | officer | Award / grant | 75,345 | 85,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Cook Anne Marie | officer | Award / grant | 67,878 | 67,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Basta Steven L | director | Award / grant | 251,034 | 364,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Basta Steven L | director | Award / grant | 226,156 | 221,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Narula Sanjeev | officer | Award / grant | 42,848 | 42,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Narula Sanjeev | officer | Award / grant | 82,715 | 226,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Parikh Asit | director | Option exercise | 8,750 | 122,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Parikh Asit | director | Option exercise | 8,750 | 8,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Breedlove Robert Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 230 | 47,844 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Basta Steven L | director | Withheld for tax | 31,502 | 113,786 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Cook Anne Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,703 | 9,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Cook Anne Marie | officer | Award / grant | 17,370 | 17,370 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Basta Steven L | director | Award / grant | 62,038 | 145,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Basta Steven L | director | Withheld for tax | 48,375 | 83,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Basta Steven L | director | Option exercise | 90,000 | 131,625 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.