Issued 2026-08-13 at $9.17 · now $9.18 (2026-08-13, +0.1% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, PHAT has typically landed between $6.09 and $12.91 — a range of −33.6% to +40.8% from the issuance price $9.17.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,686 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($9.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PHAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $9.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.18 (+0.1%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.05 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.73–$10.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.09–$12.91
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-05 | −53.7% | −53.7% | +0.7% |
| 2024-11-04 | −52.7% | −54.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-12 | −51.7% | −51.7% | +3.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-08 | +291.7% | +0.0% | +291.7% |
| 2025-05-07 | +267.9% | −4.6% | +267.9% |
| 2025-05-14 | +227.4% | +0.0% | +227.4% |
1,686 overlapping windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study in Adult Participants With EoE to Evaluate Vonoprazan 20 mg Compared to Placebo After 12 Weeks and to Evaluate Vonoprazan 20 mg Up to 24 Weeks (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.