Issued 2026-09-25 at $978.33 · now $978.33 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PH has typically landed between $871.04 and $1111.36 — a range of −11.0% to +13.6% from the issuance price $978.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($978.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $978.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $978.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,004 (+2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $949.2–$1,060
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $871.04–$1,111
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −54.7% | −54.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −52.4% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +35.9% | +0.0% | +48.8% |
| 2020-03-18 | +35.2% | −4.8% | +41.7% |
| 2020-10-28 | +34.8% | +0.0% | +38.3% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$546.99
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$830.70
- Analyst target · range $950.00–$1,269$1,044
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$978.33
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thompson Laura K | director | Sale | 160 @ $958.95 | $153K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Bracht Berend | officer | Sale | 602 @ $1040.47 | $626K | −12.0% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Scott Patrick | officer | Sale | 1,225 @ $1056.98 | $1.3M | −24.7% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,728 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Scott Patrick | officer | Sale | 10 @ $1058.94 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 5,498 @ $1057.57 | $5.8M | −29.5% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,120 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hart Mark J | officer | Sale | 2,497 @ $1057.00 | $2.6M | −26.1% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 1,972 @ $1057.42 | $2.1M | −21.8% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,059 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Verrier James | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $1058.00 | $1.6M | −31.5% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,269 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 976 @ $1057.93 | $1.0M | −16.4% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Bracht Berend | officer | Sale | 700 @ $1055.03 | $739K | −13.7% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,399 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Scott Patrick | officer | Sale | 631 @ $1053.20 | $665K | −11.3% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,953 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 470 @ $1055.97 | $496K | −6.9% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,376 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 438 @ $1057.12 | $463K | −6.9% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,938 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 320 @ $1059.61 | $339K | −6.4% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Reidy Jay | officer | Sale | 300 @ $1055.77 | $317K | −7.0% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,013 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 213 @ $1054.65 | $225K | −3.0% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,846 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1060.00 | $85K | −1.7% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,562 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Bracht Berend | officer | Sale | 1,127 @ $1002.13 | $1.1M | −30.4% of holding | −9.2% | −8.5% | 2,580 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Bendali Rachid | officer | Sale | 412 @ $1006.74 | $415K | −13.2% of holding | −9.2% | −8.5% | 2,714 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Hart Mark J | officer | Sale | 2,804 @ $1009.12 | $2.8M | −28.4% of holding | −7.1% | −6.8% | 7,063 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 1,326 @ $1001.51 | $1.3M | −19.5% of holding | −7.1% | −6.8% | 5,465 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Scott Patrick | officer | Sale | 833 @ $983.06 | $819K | −19.4% of holding | −7.1% | −6.8% | 3,455 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 1,460 @ $993.06 | $1.4M | −2.8% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 50,624 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Sale | 1,302 @ $1001.60 | $1.3M | −5.8% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 21,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 1,008 @ $999.17 | $1.0M | −6.3% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 14,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 808 @ $999.30 | $807K | −1.6% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 48,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 745 @ $993.32 | $740K | −4.2% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 17,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 642 @ $995.20 | $639K | −3.8% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 16,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 641 @ $995.12 | $638K | −1.3% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 49,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 560 @ $1001.49 | $561K | −3.9% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 13,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 500 @ $1000.15 | $500K | −1.0% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 47,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 445 @ $1001.90 | $446K | −0.9% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 47,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 440 @ $997.59 | $439K | −2.7% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 15,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 425 @ $997.63 | $424K | −0.9% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 49,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 419 @ $999.80 | $419K | −2.8% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 14,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 385 @ $1006.80 | $388K | −2.8% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 13,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Sale | 320 @ $1000.37 | $320K | −1.4% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 22,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 246 @ $993.88 | $244K | −0.5% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 50,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 202 @ $1004.45 | $203K | −1.5% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 13,575 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Sale | 200 @ $1007.99 | $202K | −1.0% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 20,610 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 193 @ $1002.40 | $193K | −1.4% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 13,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 114 @ $995.82 | $114K | −0.2% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 49,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Sale | 80 @ $1006.49 | $81K | −0.4% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 20,810 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Sale | 80 @ $1003.88 | $80K | −0.4% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 20,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Sale | 80 @ $1002.32 | $80K | −0.4% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 20,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Ross Andrew D | director | Sale | 70 @ $1008.05 | $71K | −0.5% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 13,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Sale | 67 @ $1002.73 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | −6.4% | −6.4% | 47,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Bracht Berend | officer | Sale | 1,457 @ $946.48 | $1.4M | −36.1% of holding | +5.4% | −6.8% | 2,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 1,209 @ $950.01 | $1.1M | −15.4% of holding | +5.4% | −6.8% | 6,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Jacobson Matthew A. | officer | Sale | 564 @ $949.94 | $536K | −36.1% of holding | +5.4% | −6.8% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Sale | 107 @ $950.48 | $102K | −1.6% of holding | +5.4% | −6.8% | 6,534 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Ives Angela R | officer | Sale | 1,066 @ $952.30 | $1.0M | −27.7% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 2,778 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 400 @ $947.08 | $379K | −6.8% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 5,465 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 360 @ $941.54 | $339K | −5.4% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 6,272 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 320 @ $937.35 | $300K | −4.2% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 7,241 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 280 @ $936.10 | $262K | −3.6% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 7,561 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 249 @ $940.63 | $234K | −3.6% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 6,632 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 200 @ $942.95 | $189K | −3.2% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 6,072 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 200 @ $939.92 | $188K | −2.8% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 6,881 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Sale | 160 @ $938.83 | $150K | −2.2% of holding | +7.5% | −3.0% | 7,081 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
191 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Czaja Mark T | officer | Gift | 1,056 | 5,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bracht Berend | officer | Withheld for tax | 898 | 5,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bracht Berend | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 5,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bracht Berend | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Leonti Joseph R | officer | Award / grant | 3,536 | 3,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Scott Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 3,536 | 3,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Award / grant | 3,241 | 3,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Ives Angela R | officer | Award / grant | 1,016 | 1,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Jacobson Matthew A. | officer | Award / grant | 3,241 | 3,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Award / grant | 5,745 | 5,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 22,098 | 22,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Reidy Jay | officer | Award / grant | 3,536 | 3,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Ross Andrew D | director | Award / grant | 6,777 | 6,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Bendali Rachid | officer | Award / grant | 3,241 | 3,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Bracht Berend | officer | Award / grant | 3,241 | 3,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Czaja Mark T | officer | Award / grant | 2,357 | 2,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Award / grant | 1,621 | 1,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Hart Mark J | officer | Award / grant | 3,241 | 3,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Scott Patrick | officer | Gift | 95 | 3,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Czaja Mark T | officer | Gift | 951 | 6,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Withheld for tax | 12,997 | 64,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Ross Andrew D | director | Withheld for tax | 4,339 | 18,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leombruno Todd M. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,638 | 25,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,970 | 9,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Hart Mark J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,970 | 9,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Bracht Berend | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,948 | 5,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Bendali Rachid | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,913 | 5,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leonti Joseph R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,834 | 16,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Scott Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,682 | 5,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Reidy Jay | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,495 | 4,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Czaja Mark T | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,421 | 7,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Withheld for tax | 989 | 6,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Ives Angela R | officer | Withheld for tax | 682 | 3,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Jacobson Matthew A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 585 | 1,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Hart Mark J | officer | Award / grant | 4,467 | 11,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Bendali Rachid | officer | Award / grant | 4,467 | 7,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Bracht Berend | officer | Award / grant | 4,467 | 7,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 29,808 | 77,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Award / grant | 2,241 | 7,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Ives Angela R | officer | Award / grant | 1,563 | 4,341 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.