Issued 2026-08-13 at $1058.87 · now $1058.87 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, PH has typically landed between $944.88 and $1202.85 — a range of −10.8% to +13.6% from the issuance price $1058.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($1058.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PH has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $1,059 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,059 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,087 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,028–$1,145
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $944.88–$1,203
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −54.7% | −54.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −52.4% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +35.9% | +0.0% | +48.8% |
| 2020-03-18 | +35.2% | −4.8% | +41.7% |
| 2020-10-28 | +34.8% | +0.0% | +38.3% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$546.99
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$830.70
- Analyst target · range $950.00–$1,269$1,044
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$1,059
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
15 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-20 | Bendali Rachid | officer | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Bracht Berend | officer | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Czaja Mark T | officer | Award / grant | 3,232 | 3,232 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Gentile Thomas C | officer | Award / grant | 2,222 | 2,222 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Hart Mark J | officer | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Ives Angela R | officer | Award / grant | 1,394 | 1,394 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Jacobson Matthew A. | officer | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Leombruno Todd M. | officer | Award / grant | 7,878 | 7,878 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Leonti Joseph R | officer | Award / grant | 4,848 | 4,848 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Malone Robert W | officer | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Parel Dinu J | officer | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Scott Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 4,848 | 4,848 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Reidy Jay | officer | Award / grant | 4,848 | 4,848 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Parmentier Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 28,483 | 28,483 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Ross Andrew D | officer | Award / grant | 9,292 | 9,292 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.