Issued 2026-09-16 at $147.02 · now $147.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PG has typically landed between $135.99 and $158.35 — a range of −7.5% to +7.7% from the issuance price $147.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($147.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $147.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $147.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $147.37 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $142.66–$152.08
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $135.99–$158.35
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −22.9% | −22.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-29 | −19.5% | −19.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −19.1% | −19.5% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +22.2% | +0.0% | +27.6% |
| 2020-03-25 | +18.5% | +0.0% | +23.6% |
| 2018-10-12 | +18.3% | +0.0% | +18.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$343.3B
market cap
$6.84
EPS (TTM)
21.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$84.3B
'20'25
Net income$16.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$14.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr19.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr30.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.68
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$197.34
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$167.19
- Analyst target · range $142.00–$172.00$162.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$147.02
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.2%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.7%
n=19
May
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.0%
n=19
Aug
68%
+1.5%
n=19
Sep
58%
−0.0%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Janzaruk Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 359 @ $145.24 | $52K | −22.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,271 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Raman Sundar G. | officer | Sale | 3,435 @ $143.02 | $491K | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,745 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Jejurikar Shailesh | director | Sale | 6,176 @ $143.79 | $888K | −13.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,326 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Schulten Andre | director | Sale | 5,402 @ $143.79 | $777K | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,975 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Pritchard Marc S. | officer | Sale | 4,030 @ $143.79 | $579K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 187,001 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Gama Paul | officer | Sale | 3,396 @ $143.79 | $488K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,832 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Santos de Azevedo Juliana Monteiro | officer | Sale | 2,368 @ $143.79 | $340K | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,601 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Sale | 2,238 @ $143.79 | $322K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Purushothaman Balaji | officer | Sale | 2,019 @ $143.79 | $290K | −11.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Abd El Hak Hesham | officer | Sale | 1,936 @ $143.79 | $278K | −14.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,218 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Bharucha Freddy P. | officer | Sale | 246 @ $143.79 | $35K | −11.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,965 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Janzaruk Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 156 @ $143.79 | $22K | −8.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,630 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Aguilar Moses Victor Javier | officer | Sale | 3,053 @ $143.79 | $439K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 49,511 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Sale | 8,644 @ $144.00 | $1.2M | −28.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Francisco Ma. Fatima | director | Sale | 5,249 @ $165.29 | $868K | −79.8% of holding | −5.8% | −26.1% | 1,329 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Francisco Ma. Fatima | director | Sale | 130 @ $165.30 | $21K | −9.8% of holding | −5.8% | −26.1% | 1,199 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Francisco Ma. Fatima | director | Sale | 120 @ $165.31 | $20K | −10.0% of holding | −5.8% | −26.1% | 1,079 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Francisco Ma. Fatima | director | Sale | 50 @ $165.32 | $8K | −4.6% of holding | −5.8% | −26.1% | 1,029 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Sale | 1,809 @ $159.46 | $288K | −5.6% of holding | −4.0% | −21.2% | 30,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Aguilar Moses Victor Javier | officer | Sale | 15,169 @ $162.28 | $2.5M | −25.3% of holding | −3.8% | −23.9% | 44,735 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Moeller Jon R | director | Sale | 162,232 @ $162.45 | $26.4M | −33.7% of holding | −3.8% | −24.2% | 319,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Coombe Gary A | director | Sale | 36,093 @ $162.33 | $5.9M | −50.8% of holding | −3.8% | −24.2% | 34,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Purushothaman Balaji | officer | Sale | 12,827 @ $160.31 | $2.1M | −50.4% of holding | −1.6% | −22.2% | 12,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Moeller Jon R | director | Sale | 11,036 @ $160.00 | $1.8M | −3.3% of holding | −1.6% | −22.2% | 319,385 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Francisco Ma. Fatima | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $158.00 | $1.3M | −54.9% of holding | −0.1% | −18.2% | 6,571 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-23 | Pritchard Marc S. | officer | Sale | 95,903 @ $151.15 | $14.5M | −34.4% of holding | +10.3% | −8.1% | 182,607 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Schulten Andre | director | Sale | 1 @ $146.37 | $190 | −0.0% of holding | −4.8% | −10.4% | 6,869 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Janzaruk Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 725 @ $149.57 | $108K | −42.5% of holding | −1.5% | −8.9% | 979 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Moeller Jon R | director | Sale | 11,684 @ $152.23 | $1.8M | −3.5% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 319,932 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Schulten Andre | director | Sale | 4,252 @ $152.23 | $647K | −7.3% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 53,992 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Jejurikar Shailesh | director | Sale | 3,986 @ $152.23 | $607K | −7.8% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 46,899 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Coombe Gary A | director | Sale | 3,535 @ $152.23 | $538K | −9.2% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 34,816 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Davis Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 3,227 @ $152.23 | $491K | −5.0% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 61,764 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Sale | 2,408 @ $152.23 | $367K | −7.0% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 31,770 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Keith R. Alexandra | director | Sale | 1,855 @ $152.23 | $282K | −6.7% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 25,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Purushothaman Balaji | officer | Sale | 490 @ $152.23 | $75K | −3.7% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 12,616 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Keith R. Alexandra | director | Sale | 399 @ $152.23 | $61K | −8.1% of holding | −2.3% | −3.8% | 4,497 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $156.84 | $157K | −3.4% of holding | −5.7% | −2.9% | 28,436 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-21 | Keith R. Alexandra | director | Sale | 10,697 @ $158.16 | $1.7M | −28.0% of holding | −8.8% | −2.5% | 27,530 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Coombe Gary A | director | Sale | 10,194 @ $158.16 | $1.6M | −22.6% of holding | −8.8% | −2.5% | 34,978 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Raman Sundar G. | officer | Sale | 9,554 @ $158.16 | $1.5M | −18.6% of holding | −8.8% | −2.5% | 41,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Keith R. Alexandra | director | Sale | 766 @ $158.16 | $121K | −13.5% of holding | −8.8% | −2.5% | 4,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Moeller Jon R | director | Sale | 40,119 @ $157.27 | $6.3M | −11.2% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 319,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Jejurikar Shailesh | director | Sale | 13,039 @ $157.27 | $2.1M | −31.7% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 28,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Schulten Andre | director | Sale | 11,638 @ $157.27 | $1.8M | −18.1% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 52,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Pritchard Marc S. | officer | Sale | 9,849 @ $157.27 | $1.5M | −5.1% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 182,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Francisco Ma. Fatima | director | Sale | 9,100 @ $157.27 | $1.4M | −25.0% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 27,295 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Davis Jennifer L. | director | Sale | 8,596 @ $157.27 | $1.4M | −11.7% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 64,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Sale | 6,167 @ $157.27 | $970K | −17.3% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 29,436 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Purushothaman Balaji | officer | Sale | 606 @ $157.27 | $95K | −4.4% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 13,106 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Janzaruk Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 319 @ $157.27 | $50K | −15.8% of holding | −4.2% | −6.1% | 1,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
249 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | ARNOLD CRAIG | director | Award / grant | 207 | 3,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Portman Robert Jones | director | Award / grant | 52 | 5,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | McEvoy Ashley | director | Award / grant | 207 | 6,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | McCarthy Christine M | director | Award / grant | 258 | 17,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Kempczinski Christopher J | director | Award / grant | 250 | 11,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | JIMENEZ JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 327 | 37,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Schulten Andre | director | Award / grant | 14,460 | 68,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Santos de Azevedo Juliana Monteiro | officer | Award / grant | 6,497 | 25,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Gama Paul | officer | Award / grant | 7,727 | 44,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Purushothaman Balaji | officer | Award / grant | 4,787 | 17,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Raman Sundar G. | officer | Award / grant | 9,285 | 51,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Janzaruk Matthew W. | officer | Award / grant | 515 | 1,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Jejurikar Shailesh | director | Award / grant | 16,195 | 45,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Pritchard Marc S. | officer | Award / grant | 7,857 | 191,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Award / grant | 7,371 | 29,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Abd El Hak Hesham | officer | Award / grant | 5,129 | 13,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Aguilar Moses Victor Javier | officer | Award / grant | 6,839 | 52,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Bharucha Freddy P. | officer | Award / grant | 837 | 2,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Santos de Azevedo Juliana Monteiro | officer | Award / grant | 12 | 85 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Jejurikar Shailesh | director | Award / grant | 45 | 734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Gama Paul | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 73 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Aguilar Moses Victor Javier | officer | Award / grant | 21 | 189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Pritchard Marc S. | officer | Award / grant | 276 | 9,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Purushothaman Balaji | officer | Award / grant | 11 | 71 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Raman Sundar G. | officer | Award / grant | 34 | 342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Bharucha Freddy P. | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 37 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Schulten Andre | director | Award / grant | 35 | 318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Award / grant | 13 | 92 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Abd El Hak Hesham | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 43 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Gama Paul | officer | Award / grant | 272 | 272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Janzaruk Matthew W. | officer | Award / grant | 278 | 1,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Bharucha Freddy P. | officer | Award / grant | 789 | 789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Aguilar Moses Victor Javier | officer | Award / grant | 857 | 857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Abd El Hak Hesham | officer | Award / grant | 284 | 284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Santos de Azevedo Juliana Monteiro | officer | Award / grant | 481 | 481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Schulten Andre | director | Award / grant | 1,375 | 1,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Whaley Susan Street | officer | Award / grant | 895 | 895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Raman Sundar G. | officer | Award / grant | 1,222 | 1,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Purushothaman Balaji | officer | Award / grant | 800 | 800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Pritchard Marc S. | officer | Award / grant | 1,307 | 1,307 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-08 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Richard W. Allen | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-04-16 | $15–50K |
| Lloyd Doggett | House | purchase | 2026-06-04 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.