PFS · TickerCove

PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.16 · now $23.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PFS has typically landed between $20.31 and $26.59 — a range of −12.3% to +14.8% from the issuance price $23.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$23.16 · 73% of range

$17.28 low$25.28 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.1%

typical move · IQR 12.0%

−12.3%worst (p90)+14.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PFS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $23.16 (+0.0%)
typical $23.14 (-0.1%)
middle 50% $21.75–$24.53
90% range $20.31–$26.59

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−57.7%	−57.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−54.3%	−57.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−54.0%	−57.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-06-26	+42.2%	+0.0%	+42.2%
2024-06-25	+40.5%	+0.0%	+40.5%
2009-03-05	+38.3%	−3.0%	+41.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−2.1%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.1%

n=20

Mar

50%

−0.0%

n=20

Apr

50%

+0.9%

n=20

May

40%

−1.2%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.4%

n=20

Jul

60%

+4.5%

n=20

Aug

40%

−0.3%

n=20

Sep

40%

−1.5%

n=20

Oct

65%

+3.4%

n=20

Nov

65%

+4.1%

n=20

Dec

60%

+1.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Christy James A.	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $23.36	$70K	−6.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	43,083	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	SHARA THOMAS	director	Sale	40,266 @ $23.06	$929K	−9.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	382,911	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-31	SHARA THOMAS	director	Sale	15,900 @ $23.30	$370K	−3.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	423,177	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	Giannola Vito	officer	Sale	20,000 @ $24.36	$487K	−26.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	56,424	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12	LISTA GEORGE	officer	Sale	3,528 @ $23.41	$83K	−3.2% of holding	−1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	105,734	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-08	LISTA GEORGE	officer	Sale	2,556 @ $22.40	$57K	−2.3% of holding	+3.7%	not yet — horizon still open	109,262	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26	MCCRACKEN ROBERT E	director	Sale	6,177 @ $22.13	$137K	−8.3% of holding	+0.7%	−4.9%	68,518	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05	MARTIN CHRISTOPHER P	director	Sale	1,050 @ $23.45	$25K	−0.2% of holding	−10.9%	−8.6%	600,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06	LISTA GEORGE	officer	Sale	8,262 @ $18.35	$152K	−7.1% of holding	+8.7%	+12.6%	108,656	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-12	Christy James A.	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $19.90	$60K	−7.0% of holding	−5.8%	+2.9%	39,633	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-11	Pugliese John	director	Sale	25,000 @ $19.91	$498K	−22.1% of holding	−7.2%	+2.9%	87,907	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11	MARTIN CHRISTOPHER P	director	Sale	55,668 @ $17.07	$950K	−8.5% of holding	+5.7%	+9.2%	601,050	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13	LISTA GEORGE	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $16.73	$17K	+11.2% of holding	−9.0%	+2.1%	9,956	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11	Christy James A.	officer	Sale	3,500 @ $20.88	$73K	−9.3% of holding	−3.3%	−18.8%	34,254	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

159 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	Regan Michael Edward	director	Award / grant	3,066	3,066	Form 4
2026-05-26	LEPPERT EDWARD J	director	Award / grant	4,012	87,649	Form 4
2026-05-26	MCCRACKEN ROBERT E	director	Award / grant	4,012	72,530	Form 4
2026-05-26	SHARA THOMAS	director	Award / grant	4,012	91,653	Form 4
2026-05-26	Pugliese John	director	Award / grant	4,012	91,919	Form 4
2026-05-26	Harding Matthew K.	director	Award / grant	4,012	73,623	Form 4
2026-05-26	Duchemin-Leslie Nadine	director	Award / grant	4,012	28,720	Form 4
2026-05-26	Flynn Brian	director	Award / grant	4,012	54,026	Form 4
2026-05-26	Foley Ursuline F	director	Award / grant	4,012	46,636	Form 4
2026-05-26	Gragnolati Brian	director	Award / grant	4,012	39,042	Form 4
2026-05-26	Hanson James E. II	director	Award / grant	4,012	41,725	Form 4
2026-05-20	LABOZZETTA ANTHONY J	director	Withheld for tax	10,416	578,958	Form 4
2026-05-20	Vakacherla Ravi	officer	Withheld for tax	2,760	22,407	Form 4
2026-05-20	MacDougall Bennett	officer	Withheld for tax	2,712	24,189	Form 4
2026-05-20	Powell Carolyn	officer	Withheld for tax	2,178	43,565	Form 4
2026-05-20	Duarte Adriano M.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,071	32,852	Form 4
2026-05-20	Giannola Vito	officer	Withheld for tax	1,626	76,424	Form 4
2026-05-20	Vakacherla Ravi	officer	Award / grant	8,803	25,167	Form 4
2026-05-20	LABOZZETTA ANTHONY J	director	Award / grant	30,410	589,374	Form 4
2026-05-20	Duarte Adriano M.	officer	Award / grant	6,082	34,923	Form 4
2026-05-20	Giannola Vito	officer	Award / grant	4,520	78,050	Form 4
2026-05-20	MacDougall Bennett	officer	Award / grant	7,522	26,901	Form 4
2026-05-20	Powell Carolyn	officer	Award / grant	6,946	45,743	Form 4
2026-05-20	LYONS THOMAS M	officer	Award / grant	10,883	240,438	Form 4
2026-03-04	LABOZZETTA ANTHONY J	director	Withheld for tax	1,858	558,964	Form 4
2026-03-04	Vakacherla Ravi	officer	Withheld for tax	590	16,364	Form 4
2026-03-04	Murray Valerie O	officer	Withheld for tax	562	75,022	Form 4
2026-03-04	Giannola Vito	officer	Withheld for tax	484	73,530	Form 4
2026-03-04	MacDougall Bennett	officer	Withheld for tax	472	19,379	Form 4
2026-03-04	Christy James A.	officer	Withheld for tax	410	43,578	Form 4
2026-03-04	Powell Carolyn	officer	Withheld for tax	389	38,797	Form 4
2026-03-04	Duarte Adriano M.	officer	Withheld for tax	239	28,841	Form 4
2026-03-03	LABOZZETTA ANTHONY J	director	Withheld for tax	2,889	539,989	Form 4
2026-03-03	LABOZZETTA ANTHONY J	director	Withheld for tax	2,873	545,503	Form 4
2026-03-03	Murray Valerie O	officer	Withheld for tax	1,133	75,584	Form 4
2026-03-03	SHARA THOMAS	director	Withheld for tax	1,091	78,505	Form 4
2026-03-03	Vakacherla Ravi	officer	Withheld for tax	1,020	12,763	Form 4
2026-03-03	Vakacherla Ravi	officer	Withheld for tax	849	11,069	Form 4
2026-03-03	Giannola Vito	officer	Withheld for tax	817	70,525	Form 4
2026-03-03	Murray Valerie O	officer	Withheld for tax	774	73,337	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i