PFISPeoples Financial Services Corp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.91 · now $70.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PFIS has typically landed between $63.23 and $80.80 — a range of −10.8% to +13.9% from the issuance price $70.91.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PFIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$63.23worst · -10.8%$80.8best · +13.9%
  • now $70.91 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.61 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $67.55–$75.66
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $63.23–$80.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-17−31.1%−32.0%+0.0%
2020-03-05−27.4%−27.4%+6.7%
2020-03-04−25.7%−25.7%+1.2%
3 best
2010-04-05+35.0%+0.0%+35.0%
2010-04-01+35.0%+0.0%+35.0%
2024-06-13+29.1%+0.0%+29.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−2.1%
n=20
Feb
50%
+1.1%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
65%
+2.1%
n=20
May
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Jun
60%
+3.8%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.0%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Oct
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.9%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$72$432025-08-15: 1 insider purchase, $5K — LOCHEN RICHARD S JR2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $53K↑ buys↓ salesdirector LOCHEN RICHARD S JR — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-08-15LOCHEN RICHARD S JRdirectorPurchase100 @ $50.10$5K+0.5% of holding+0.8%+10.0%18,419Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-06LOCHEN RICHARD S JRdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $47.67$48K+5.8% of holding+10.6%+12.5%18,319Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05LOCHEN RICHARD S JRdirectorPurchase700 @ $47.11$33K+4.3% of holding−5.9%+4.5%16,829Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05LOCHEN RICHARD S JRdirectorPurchase300 @ $47.14$14K+1.8% of holding−5.9%+4.5%17,129Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

164 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-29Drobins Jeffrey AofficerWithheld for tax7886,063Form 4
2026-08-29Kirtley TimothyofficerWithheld for tax1906,694Form 4
2026-08-29Drobins Jeffrey AofficerOption exercise1,8879,876Form 4
2026-08-29Kirtley TimothyofficerOption exercise6682,664Form 4
2026-08-29Drobins Jeffrey AofficerOption exercise1,8876,851Form 4
2026-08-29Kirtley TimothyofficerOption exercise6686,884Form 4
2026-08-29Drobins Jeffrey AofficerOption exercise1,8876,851Form 4
2026-08-29Kirtley TimothyofficerOption exercise6686,884Form 4
2026-08-29Drobins Jeffrey AofficerOption exercise1,8876,851Form 4
2026-08-29Drobins Jeffrey AofficerOption exercise1,8876,851Form 4
2026-08-29Kirtley TimothyofficerOption exercise6686,884Form 4
2026-08-29Kirtley TimothyofficerOption exercise6686,884Form 4
2026-06-26BONE JAMES M JRofficerAward / grant793793Form 4
2026-06-26KOPLIN NEAL DofficerAward / grant773773Form 4
2026-06-26Cummings Mary GriffinofficerAward / grant661661Form 4
2026-06-26ANDERSON JOHN R IIIofficerAward / grant673673Form 4
2026-06-26Kirtley TimothyofficerAward / grant662662Form 4
2026-06-26Westington Stephanie A.officerAward / grant526526Form 4
2026-06-26VIENEY AMYofficerAward / grant610610Form 4
2026-06-26Drobins Jeffrey AofficerAward / grant715715Form 4
2026-06-26Hubble Susan LofficerAward / grant655655Form 4
2026-06-26Champi Gerard AofficerAward / grant1,7621,762Form 4
2026-05-15Cummings Mary GriffinofficerWithheld for tax606,780Form 4
2026-05-15Westington Stephanie A.officerWithheld for tax473,305Form 4
2026-04-03TULANEY THOMAS PofficerWithheld for tax31522,232Form 4
2026-04-03TULANEY THOMAS PofficerOption exercise7090Form 4
2026-04-03TULANEY THOMAS PofficerOption exercise70922,547Form 4
2026-04-03TULANEY THOMAS PofficerOption exercise70922,547Form 4
2026-03-11TULANEY THOMAS PofficerWithheld for tax26422,288Form 4
2026-03-11Drobins Jeffrey AofficerWithheld for tax2365,237Form 4
2026-03-11KOPLIN NEAL DofficerWithheld for tax23310,711Form 4
2026-03-11ANDERSON JOHN R IIIofficerWithheld for tax1896,791Form 4
2026-03-11Kirtley TimothyofficerWithheld for tax1686,600Form 4
2026-03-11Hubble Susan LofficerWithheld for tax1642,625Form 4
2026-03-11Cummings Mary GriffinofficerWithheld for tax836,840Form 4
2026-03-11VIENEY AMYofficerWithheld for tax66758Form 4
2026-03-11Westington Stephanie A.officerWithheld for tax303,352Form 4
2026-03-11VIENEY AMYofficerOption exercise95182Form 4
2026-03-11Cummings Mary GriffinofficerOption exercise246477Form 4
2026-03-11KOPLIN NEAL DofficerOption exercise32310,944Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.