Issued 2026-09-16 at $91.06 · now $91.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PFGC has typically landed between $80.43 and $103.14 — a range of −11.7% to +13.3% from the issuance price $91.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,735 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-09-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($91.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PFGC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $91.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $91.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $92.47 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $87.23–$97.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $80.43–$103.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,735 windows spanning 2015-09-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −78.5% | −78.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −78.4% | −78.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −72.4% | −72.4% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +104.4% | +0.0% | +156.4% |
| 2020-03-17 | +89.0% | −1.2% | +153.3% |
| 2020-03-16 | +63.0% | −22.4% | +98.9% |
2,735 overlapping windows · 2015-09-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
73%
+1.6%
n=11
Feb
64%
+3.5%
n=11
Mar
36%
−5.9%
n=11
Apr
82%
+4.4%
n=11
May
45%
−0.9%
n=11
Jun
64%
+3.4%
n=11
Jul
64%
+3.1%
n=11
Aug
64%
+2.7%
n=11
Sep
36%
−3.2%
n=11
Oct
36%
+0.7%
n=11
Nov
82%
+7.2%
n=11
Dec
64%
+3.9%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $99.16 | $288K | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Sale | 100 @ $99.75 | $10K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Sale | 1,353 @ $105.29 | $142K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,938 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $105.29 | $139K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,216 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 1,320 @ $105.29 | $139K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,402 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Sale | 5,635 @ $105.53 | $595K | −8.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 59,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Sale | 4,900 @ $106.33 | $521K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 1,178 @ $104.43 | $123K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,622 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 1,178 @ $104.42 | $123K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,808 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Grosh Chasity D | officer | Sale | 643 @ $104.42 | $67K | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,222 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 5,589 @ $104.01 | $581K | −10.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,234 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 5,329 @ $103.99 | $554K | −10.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,665 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 2,679 @ $104.66 | $280K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,986 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 2,434 @ $104.68 | $255K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 1,529 @ $104.64 | $160K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,963 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 1,529 @ $104.64 | $160K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Grosh Chasity D | officer | Sale | 838 @ $104.64 | $88K | −9.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 27,441 @ $114.50 | $3.1M | −1.7% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,623,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 1,690 @ $115.20 | $195K | −0.1% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 31,297 @ $112.83 | $3.5M | −1.9% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 1,403 @ $111.94 | $157K | −0.1% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,653,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 300 @ $113.20 | $34K | −0.0% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 19,008 @ $112.62 | $2.1M | −1.2% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 12,192 @ $112.02 | $1.4M | −0.7% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,640,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $110.89 | $200K | −0.1% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,652,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 2,595 @ $110.00 | $285K | −6.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,446 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 17,473 @ $104.59 | $1.8M | −1.1% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,623,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 13,090 @ $103.46 | $1.4M | −0.8% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,641,462 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 2,437 @ $105.13 | $256K | −0.2% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,552 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 6,111 @ $105.00 | $642K | −12.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,260 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 1,750 @ $105.00 | $184K | −3.9% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,041 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 3,518 @ $100.00 | $352K | −6.5% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,371 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 3,322 @ $100.00 | $332K | −5.8% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 19,290 @ $94.10 | $1.8M | −1.2% of holding | +23.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,635,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 7,924 @ $95.13 | $754K | −0.5% of holding | +23.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,627,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 5,386 @ $96.18 | $518K | −0.3% of holding | +23.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 400 @ $97.22 | $39K | −0.0% of holding | +23.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 3,641 @ $96.58 | $352K | −5.8% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,211 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $96.73 | $193K | −3.4% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,211 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 1,750 @ $95.00 | $166K | −3.8% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 14,941 @ $95.42 | $1.4M | −0.9% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,623,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 9,805 @ $94.28 | $924K | −0.6% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,637,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 5,654 @ $93.62 | $529K | −0.3% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,647,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $96.07 | $144K | −0.1% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,621,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $92.20 | $101K | −0.1% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,653,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Grant Kimberly | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $95.00 | $238K | −17.3% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $93.81 | $141K | −3.1% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $95.16 | $124K | −2.8% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,855 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Sale | 200 @ $95.97 | $19K | −0.4% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Grosh Chasity D | officer | Sale | 1,843 @ $92.03 | $170K | −21.8% of holding | +0.7% | +7.1% | 6,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 29,106 @ $104.47 | $3.0M | −1.8% of holding | −7.4% | −21.3% | 1,626,021 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | KING A BRENT | officer | Sale | 6,334 @ $105.10 | $666K | −9.2% of holding | −7.4% | −21.3% | 62,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $105.07 | $525K | −9.5% of holding | −7.4% | −21.3% | 47,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 4,469 @ $105.10 | $470K | −0.3% of holding | −7.4% | −21.3% | 1,621,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $105.06 | $431K | −8.1% of holding | −7.4% | −21.3% | 46,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Sale | 1,861 @ $103.58 | $193K | −0.1% of holding | −7.4% | −21.3% | 1,655,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Sale | 708 @ $101.21 | $72K | −1.3% of holding | +0.2% | −11.0% | 54,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 677 @ $101.23 | $69K | −1.3% of holding | +0.2% | −11.0% | 51,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $101.98 | $61K | −1.1% of holding | +0.2% | −11.0% | 53,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Sale | 600 @ $101.92 | $61K | −1.2% of holding | +0.2% | −11.0% | 50,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
142 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Withheld for tax | 5,958 | 1,673,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,531 | 61,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | KING A BRENT | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,086 | 45,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Withheld for tax | 1,086 | 41,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,053 | 64,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | McPherson Scott E | director | Withheld for tax | 1,033 | 208,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Withheld for tax | 5,648 | 1,679,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Withheld for tax | 4,152 | 1,684,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | McPherson Scott E | director | Withheld for tax | 1,321 | 209,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,175 | 62,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Withheld for tax | 969 | 51,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | KING A BRENT | officer | Withheld for tax | 969 | 55,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 705 | 65,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Grosh Chasity D | officer | Withheld for tax | 277 | 7,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Withheld for tax | 31,251 | 1,669,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,097 | 55,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | McPherson Scott E | director | Withheld for tax | 4,692 | 187,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Withheld for tax | 4,611 | 47,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | KING A BRENT | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,596 | 51,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,418 | 61,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | KING A BRENT | officer | Award / grant | 6,697 | 56,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Award / grant | 12,619 | 65,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Award / grant | 5,166 | 66,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 18,353 | 62,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Award / grant | 12,619 | 52,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Award / grant | 6,697 | 54,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 8,801 | 63,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Award / grant | 79,417 | 1,700,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Award / grant | 19,132 | 1,688,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | KING A BRENT | officer | Award / grant | 12,619 | 56,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | McPherson Scott E | director | Award / grant | 13,766 | 192,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | McPherson Scott E | director | Award / grant | 22,958 | 210,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Grosh Chasity D | officer | Award / grant | 2,741 | 8,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hatcher Hugh Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 839 | 43,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | McPherson Scott E | director | Withheld for tax | 711 | 178,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | KING A BRENT | officer | Withheld for tax | 659 | 43,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | DAVIS ERIKA T | director | Withheld for tax | 659 | 39,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bulmer Donald S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 577 | 53,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Grosh Chasity D | officer | Withheld for tax | 362 | 6,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | HOLM GEORGE L | director | Option exercise | 29,131 | 1,650,683 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.