PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $116.64 · now $116.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PFG has typically landed between $104.60 and $129.71 — a range of −10.3% to +11.2% from the issuance price $116.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($116.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PFG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $116.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$104.6worst · -10.3%$129.71best · +11.2%
  • now $116.64 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $119.06 (+2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $113.54–$124.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $104.6–$129.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-10−65.8%−65.8%+12.6%
2009-02-05−64.6%−64.6%+2.4%
2009-02-04−62.5%−62.5%+5.2%
3 best
2009-04-06+118.9%−4.6%+118.9%
2009-04-07+111.5%+0.0%+129.5%
2008-11-20+104.3%+0.0%+118.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$23.6B
market cap
$6.98
EPS (TTM)
15.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-27
next earnings
Revenue$15.6B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.33
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $116.64$81.64$231.84
  • DCF (intrinsic)$221.48
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$114.35
  • Analyst target · range $92.00–$125.00$107.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$116.64

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.0%
n=18
Feb
63%
−1.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.4%
n=19
Apr
63%
+7.0%
n=19
May
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.6%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
−1.8%
n=18
Nov
83%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+3.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$119$752026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $777K — Cheong Wee Yee2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $331K — Cheong Wee Yee2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $930K — Cheong Wee Yee2026-04-30: 2 insider sales, $479K — Cheong Wee Yee, Djurasovic George2026-04-29: 1 insider sale, $109K — Cheong Wee Yee2026-04-28: 1 insider sale, $259K — Djurasovic George2026-02-09: 1 insider purchase, $485 — Muruzabal Claudio2026-01-30: 1 insider sale, $697K — STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D2026-01-29: 1 insider sale, $885K — STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D2026-01-22: 1 insider sale, $743K — STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D2026-01-08: 1 insider sale, $28K — STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $160K — Cheong Wee Yee2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $160K2026-01: 4 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $4852026-04: 4 open-market sales, $847K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $2.0M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Cheong Wee Yee — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cheong Wee Yee — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cheong Wee Yee — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Cheong Wee Yee — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Djurasovic George — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed same dayofficer Cheong Wee Yee — Sale on 2026-04-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Djurasovic George — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Muruzabal Claudio — Purchase on 2026-02-09, filed 44 days after the tradedirector STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA D — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Cheong Wee Yee — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-21Cheong Wee YeeofficerSale7,534 @ $103.16$777K−10.2% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open66,443Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20Cheong Wee YeeofficerSale3,211 @ $103.06$331K−4.2% of holding+8.4%not yet — horizon still open73,977Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Cheong Wee YeeofficerSale9,183 @ $101.26$930K−10.6% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open77,188Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-30Cheong Wee YeeofficerSale4,737 @ $101.01$478K−5.2% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open86,371Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30Djurasovic GeorgeofficerSale1 @ $99.63$99−0.0% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open21,905Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-29Cheong Wee YeeofficerSale1,080 @ $101.00$109K−1.2% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open91,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-28Djurasovic GeorgeofficerSale2,571 @ $100.83$259K−10.5% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open21,906Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09Muruzabal ClaudiodirectorPurchase5 @ $97.09$485+0.0% of holding−4.7%+8.2%11,203Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade
2026-01-30STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorSale7,340 @ $95.00$697K−5.1% of holding+0.6%+13.5%136,828Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-29STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorSale9,300 @ $95.12$885K−6.1% of holding+2.2%+13.8%144,168Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-22STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorSale8,025 @ $92.56$743K−12.9% of holding+1.5%+12.9%54,227Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-08STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorSale300 @ $92.50$28K−0.5% of holding+3.9%+16.7%62,252Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-12Cheong Wee YeeofficerSale1,887 @ $85.04$160K−2.3% of holding+6.7%+11.3%81,421Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-21Muruzabal ClaudiodirectorSale5 @ $70.05$350−0.0% of holding−0.7%−16.8%11,198Form 4 · filed 338 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorDisposition55,140173,867Form 4
2026-09-03STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorOption exercise18,3800Form 4
2026-09-03STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant18,380229,007Form 4
2026-09-03STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant18,380192,247Form 4
2026-09-03STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant18,380210,627Form 4
2026-08-07Friedrich Amy ChristineofficerDisposition35,680108,863Form 4
2026-08-07Friedrich Amy ChristineofficerAward / grant35,680144,543Form 4
2026-08-07Friedrich Amy ChristineofficerOption exercise11,8940Form 4
2026-08-07Friedrich Amy ChristineofficerOption exercise11,8930Form 4
2026-06-26HOCHSCHILD ROGER CdirectorAward / grant21929,674Form 4
2026-06-26Mills ScottdirectorAward / grant15220,493Form 4
2026-06-26RIVERA ALFREDOdirectorAward / grant253,279Form 4
2026-06-26Mitchell H ElizabethdirectorAward / grant8013,200Form 4
2026-06-26Muruzabal ClaudiodirectorAward / grant10013,602Form 4
2026-06-26STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant612173,867Form 4
2026-06-26STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant4453,542Form 4
2026-06-26Pitz JoelofficerAward / grant23443,998Form 4
2026-06-26Pitz JoelofficerAward / grant22,928Form 4
2026-06-26Pickerell BlairdirectorAward / grant28139,827Form 4
2026-06-26Richer Clare StackdirectorAward / grant14221,412Form 4
2026-06-26RIVERA ALFREDOdirectorAward / grant11716,511Form 4
2026-06-26Auerbach JonathandirectorAward / grant16622,952Form 4
2026-06-26Nordin Diane CdirectorAward / grant21731,337Form 4
2026-06-26Beams Mary E.directorAward / grant10916,961Form 4
2026-06-26Agrawal VivekofficerAward / grant23446,536Form 4
2026-06-26Bhatia KamalofficerAward / grant43065,454Form 4
2026-06-26Carter Miller JocelyndirectorAward / grant66991,331Form 4
2026-06-26Cheong Wee YeeofficerAward / grant36866,819Form 4
2026-06-26Friedrich Amy ChristineofficerAward / grant599108,863Form 4
2026-06-26HOCHSCHILD ROGER CdirectorAward / grant29441,477Form 4
2026-06-26Kay Kathleen BdirectorAward / grant39844,300Form 4
2026-06-26LITTLEFIELD CHRISTOPHER JofficerAward / grant55976,741Form 4
2026-06-26McCullum Kenneth A.officerAward / grant7341,070Form 4
2026-06-26Mills ScottdirectorAward / grant25336,140Form 4
2026-06-12STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorDisposition26,445177,518Form 4
2026-06-12STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant16,825203,963Form 4
2026-06-12STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorOption exercise16,8250Form 4
2026-06-12STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorOption exercise13,8830Form 4
2026-06-12STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorAward / grant13,883187,138Form 4
2026-06-12STRABLE-SOETHOUT DEANNA DdirectorDisposition4,263173,255Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.