PFEPfizer Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Generalas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $28.67 · now $28.67 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PFE has typically landed between $25.72 and $32.10 — a range of −10.3% to +12.0% from the issuance price $28.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($28.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PFE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $28.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$25.72worst · -10.3%$32.1best · +12.0%
  • now $28.67 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $28.52 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $27.19–$29.86
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.72–$32.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-11−21.2%−21.2%+0.0%
2009-01-22−21.2%−21.2%+1.4%
2009-01-29−21.1%−21.1%+0.6%
3 best
2020-03-23+27.2%+0.0%+29.5%
2021-10-27+26.8%+0.0%+26.8%
2021-07-19+26.7%+0.0%+26.7%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • 2026-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Vepdegestrant (ARV-471/PF-07850327) + Palbociclib vs Letrozole + Palbociclib in ER(+)/HER2(-) Advanced Breast Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2026-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: TACTIVE-U: A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine (Vepdegestrant) When Given With Other Medicines in People With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer (Sub-Study B) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2026-12-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: TACTIVE-U: A Study to Learn About the Study Medicine (Vepdegestrant) When Given With Other Medicines in People With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer. (Sub-Study C) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-12-06 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Symbiotic-GU-06: A Study to Learn About PF-08634404 Alone or In Combination With Enfortumab Vedotin in Urothelial Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$139.9B
market cap
$1.31
EPS (TTM)
18.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$62.6B
'20'25
Net income$7.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.78
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $28.67$23.97$38.86
  • DCF (intrinsic)$37.84
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$35.95
  • Analyst target · range $25.00–$30.00$27.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$28.67

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−1.8%
n=18
Feb
37%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Apr
37%
−0.1%
n=19
May
47%
+1.3%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.7%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$29$222026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — BOURLA ALBERT2026-08-05: 2 insider purchases, $2.0M — BLAYLOCK RONALD E, Buckley Mortimer J2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $83K — DAMICO JENNIFER B.2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $51K — DAMICO JENNIFER B.2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $51K2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $3.0M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $83K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BOURLA ALBERT — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed same daydirector BLAYLOCK RONALD E — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed same daydirector Buckley Mortimer J — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed same dayofficer DAMICO JENNIFER B. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DAMICO JENNIFER B. — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12BOURLA ALBERTdirectorPurchase38,000 @ $26.34$1.0M+9.7% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open429,173Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05BLAYLOCK RONALD EdirectorPurchase39,231 @ $25.46$999K+141.6% of holding+11.2%not yet — horizon still open66,938Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05Buckley Mortimer JdirectorPurchase37,632 @ $25.52$960Kownership Δ n/a+11.2%not yet — horizon still open37,632Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05DAMICO JENNIFER B.officerSale3,278 @ $25.40$83K−10.3% of holding+11.2%not yet — horizon still open28,611Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09DAMICO JENNIFER B.officerSale2,000 @ $25.70$51K−6.0% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open31,397Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04DAMICO JENNIFER B.officerSale2,500 @ $25.93$65K−17.4% of holding−2.2%−12.5%11,850Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-13BLAYLOCK RONALD EdirectorPurchase19,457 @ $25.65$499K+235.8% of holding+8.6%−4.5%27,707Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-10-30Gottlieb ScottdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $28.24$28K+11.1% of holding−10.6%−11.4%10,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant22783,985Form 4
2026-08-31BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant21784,012Form 4
2026-08-14BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant22785,060Form 4
2026-07-31BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant24786,154Form 4
2026-07-15BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant24772,901Form 4
2026-07-09BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant84772,938Form 4
2026-06-30BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant25772,979Form 4
2026-06-26NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorAward / grant2,058200,879Form 4
2026-06-26Echevarria JosephdirectorAward / grant1,904165,632Form 4
2026-06-26SMITH JAMES CdirectorAward / grant1,853182,886Form 4
2026-06-26Quincey JamesdirectorAward / grant1,59587,994Form 4
2026-06-26Taraporevala CyrusdirectorAward / grant1,54436,941Form 4
2026-06-26Buckley Mortimer JdirectorAward / grant1,54426,335Form 4
2026-06-15BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant23772,772Form 4
2026-05-29BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant23772,789Form 4
2026-05-15BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant24773,297Form 4
2026-04-30BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant22760,229Form 4
2026-04-23Gottlieb ScottdirectorAward / grant7,68757,002Form 4
2026-04-23NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorAward / grant7,687195,612Form 4
2026-04-23NORA JOHNSON SUZANNE MdirectorAward / grant7,687116,983Form 4
2026-04-23Taraporevala CyrusdirectorAward / grant7,68734,826Form 4
2026-04-23SMITH JAMES CdirectorAward / grant7,687178,111Form 4
2026-04-23Quincey JamesdirectorAward / grant7,68785,004Form 4
2026-04-23Echevarria JosephdirectorAward / grant7,687161,085Form 4
2026-04-23Desmond-Hellmann SusandirectorAward / grant7,68745,636Form 4
2026-04-23Buckley Mortimer JdirectorAward / grant7,68724,391Form 4
2026-04-23BLAYLOCK RONALD EdirectorAward / grant7,68784,013Form 4
2026-04-23LITTMAN DAN R.directorAward / grant7,68774,534Form 4
2026-04-15BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant22760,070Form 4
2026-04-14BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant911760,090Form 4
2026-03-31BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant21759,049Form 4
2026-03-27NARAYEN SHANTANUdirectorAward / grant1,849187,925Form 4
2026-03-27Echevarria JosephdirectorAward / grant1,710153,398Form 4
2026-03-27SMITH JAMES CdirectorAward / grant1,664170,425Form 4
2026-03-27Quincey JamesdirectorAward / grant1,43377,318Form 4
2026-03-27Buckley Mortimer JdirectorAward / grant1,38716,705Form 4
2026-03-27Taraporevala CyrusdirectorAward / grant1,38727,140Form 4
2026-03-13BOURLA ALBERTdirectorAward / grant1,630759,400Form 4
2026-03-04DAMICO JENNIFER B.officerWithheld for tax82632,934Form 4
2026-03-03de Germay AlexandreofficerAward / grant194,883194,883Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-24$50–100K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2026-07-162026-06-08$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
James French HillHousesale2026-01-232025-12-31$100–250K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-06-17$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.