PEPPepsiCo, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholicas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $134.34 · now $134.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PEP has typically landed between $124.44 and $144.22 — a range of −7.4% to +7.4% from the issuance price $134.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($134.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PEP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $134.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$124.44worst · -7.4%$144.22best · +7.4%
  • now $134.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $134.71 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $130.1–$139.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $124.44–$144.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-16−29.8%−29.8%+0.3%
2008-09-26−28.2%−28.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−27.9%−27.9%+0.5%
3 best
2020-03-23+26.1%+0.0%+31.6%
2020-03-20+26.0%+0.0%+33.2%
2026-01-07+24.4%+0.0%+24.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$186.7B
market cap
$7.63
EPS (TTM)
17.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-08
next earnings
Revenue$93.9B
'20'25
Net income$8.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr8.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr40.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.45
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $134.34$128.29$211.12
  • DCF (intrinsic)$205.41
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$186.50
  • Analyst target · range $134.00–$183.00$155.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$134.34

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
28%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Mar
79%
+2.8%
n=19
Apr
63%
+0.7%
n=19
May
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
84%
+2.5%
n=19
Aug
37%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.6%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$167$1342026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $405K — Flavell David2026-03-04: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Willemsen Eugene …2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $4.7M — Laguarta Ramon2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $5.7M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $405K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Flavell David — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Willemsen Eugene — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Willemsen Eugene — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Laguarta Ramon — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-27Flavell DavidofficerSale2,900 @ $139.54$405K−3.7% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open74,825Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Willemsen EugeneofficerSale3,798 @ $164.46$625K−5.7% of holding+0.7%−25.8%63,407Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Willemsen EugeneofficerSale2,702 @ $164.44$444K−11.7% of holding+0.7%−25.8%20,342Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Laguarta RamondirectorSale27,945 @ $167.39$4.7M−5.1% of holding−1.3%−27.7%521,645Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04Gallagher Marie T.directorSale25,000 @ $159.55$4.0M−52.8% of holding−0.6%−13.9%22,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Laguarta RamondirectorSale50,000 @ $154.90$7.7M−9.6% of holding+0.4%−12.1%469,210Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Williams Steven CofficerSale17,978 @ $150.89$2.7M−12.8% of holding+0.4%−12.1%122,249Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Willemsen EugeneofficerSale10,000 @ $154.33$1.5M−39.2% of holding+0.4%−12.1%15,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorSale9,700 @ $150.91$1.5M−15.7% of holding+0.4%−12.1%52,073Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Flavell DavidofficerSale6,906 @ $150.90$1.0M−13.9% of holding+0.4%−12.1%42,660Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorSale225 @ $153.51$35K−0.4% of holding+0.4%−12.1%51,848Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Santilli PauladirectorSale7,777 @ $151.90$1.2M−8.2% of holding+3.8%−13.0%87,234Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorOther acquisition79,73179,731Form 4
2026-08-06POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorOther acquisition900,0000Form 4
2026-08-05POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorAward / grant398189,758Form 4
2026-08-05POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorAward / grant398189,758Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition5,68820,012Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition1,3200Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition5,6880Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition1,32021,332Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorAward / grant772,777Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition1,32021,332Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition5,6880Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition1,3200Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorOther acquisition5,68820,012Form 4
2026-08-03Krishnan RamkumardirectorAward / grant772,777Form 4
2026-07-01Willemsen EugeneofficerAward / grant54064,756Form 4
2026-07-01Willemsen EugeneofficerAward / grant80964,216Form 4
2026-06-01Diamond Susan MdirectorAward / grant5658,267Form 4
2026-06-01VASELLA DANIELdirectorAward / grant42491,896Form 4
2026-06-01Bailey JenniferdirectorAward / grant4247,962Form 4
2026-06-01Gibbs David WdirectorAward / grant711,605Form 4
2026-05-31Diamond Susan MdirectorAward / grant1287,701Form 4
2026-05-31VASELLA DANIELdirectorAward / grant1,48191,472Form 4
2026-05-31Bailey JenniferdirectorAward / grant1257,538Form 4
2026-05-31Diamond Susan MdirectorAward / grant1287,701Form 4
2026-05-31Bailey JenniferdirectorAward / grant1257,538Form 4
2026-05-31VASELLA DANIELdirectorAward / grant1,48191,472Form 4
2026-05-06Gibbs David WdirectorAward / grant1,0001,000Form 4
2026-05-06Gibbs David WdirectorAward / grant5341,534Form 4
2026-03-02POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorAward / grant200189,360Form 4
2026-03-02POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorOther acquisition900,0000Form 4
2026-03-02POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorOther acquisition900,000900,000Form 4
2026-03-02POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorOther acquisition900,0000Form 4
2026-03-02POHLAD ROBERT CdirectorOther acquisition900,000900,000Form 4
2026-03-01Laguarta RamondirectorWithheld for tax24,940549,590Form 4
2026-03-01Krishnan RamkumardirectorWithheld for tax4,13694,994Form 4
2026-03-01Popovici SilviuofficerWithheld for tax4,040170,890Form 4
2026-03-01Willemsen EugeneofficerWithheld for tax3,87967,205Form 4
2026-03-01Schmitt BeckyofficerWithheld for tax3,74964,358Form 4
2026-03-01Kanioura AthinaofficerWithheld for tax2,507115,546Form 4
2026-03-01Flavell DavidofficerWithheld for tax2,14377,725Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$15–50K
Keith SelfHousepurchase2026-06-302025-01-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2026-04-132026-03-26$15–50K
Sheldon WhitehouseSenatesale2026-04-082026-03-30$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-03-122026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Sheldon WhitehouseSenatesale2026-03-062026-02-23$1–15K
Sheldon WhitehouseSenatesale2026-03-062026-02-23$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2026-01-162025-12-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.