Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.24 · now $48.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PENG has typically landed between $37.01 and $69.68 — a range of −23.3% to +44.4% from the issuance price $48.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
481 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PENG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $48.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.43–$54.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.01–$69.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 481 windows spanning 2024-09-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −35.7% | −35.7% | +19.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | −32.3% | −42.5% | +7.1% |
| 2026-07-10 | −29.6% | −44.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-01 | +126.2% | +0.0% | +126.2% |
| 2026-05-04 | +120.4% | +0.0% | +120.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | +96.3% | +0.0% | +96.3% |
481 overlapping windows · 2024-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.9%
n=2
Feb
50%
+3.2%
n=2
Mar
0%
−14.1%
n=2
Apr
50%
+35.5%
n=2
May
100%
+43.8%
n=2
Jun
100%
+23.8%
n=2
Jul
50%
−5.9%
n=2
Aug
50%
−2.2%
n=2
Sep
50%
+3.6%
n=2
Oct
0%
−21.7%
n=2
Nov
50%
+5.7%
n=2
Dec
50%
+1.2%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $50.73 | $167K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 600 @ $49.62 | $30K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 100 @ $51.34 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 1,327 @ $57.47 | $76K | −2.1% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,056 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 739 @ $56.12 | $41K | −0.6% of holding | −15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 2,104 @ $64.16 | $135K | −1.7% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 1,596 @ $64.82 | $103K | −1.3% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,894 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 200 @ $62.51 | $13K | −0.2% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,594 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 100 @ $65.63 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 4,612 @ $59.97 | $277K | −6.4% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 1,439 @ $58.50 | $84K | −2.0% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $60.76 | $79K | −1.9% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,425 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $56.54 | $62K | −1.5% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $55.53 | $56K | −1.3% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,776 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 900 @ $57.73 | $52K | −1.2% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,776 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $54.98 | $115K | −1.7% of holding | +23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $54.10 | $87K | −1.2% of holding | +23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 300 @ $52.58 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | +23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Straub Maximiliane C | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $49.00 | $147K | −5.5% of holding | +28.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,975 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | NAYYAR SANDEEP | director | Sale | 7,107 @ $43.48 | $309K | −21.9% of holding | +45.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Straub Maximiliane C | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $44.34 | $177K | −6.8% of holding | +45.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | NAYYAR SANDEEP | director | Sale | 12,893 @ $45.09 | $581K | −28.4% of holding | +36.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Straub Maximiliane C | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $45.00 | $360K | −11.9% of holding | +36.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,975 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $39.99 | $200K | −6.1% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,776 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $34.75 | $174K | −5.8% of holding | +90.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $29.75 | $149K | −5.4% of holding | +73.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,776 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 1,485 @ $27.62 | $41K | −1.6% of holding | +87.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,776 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 738 @ $27.92 | $21K | −0.6% of holding | +72.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $26.82 | $134K | −5.0% of holding | +74.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,549 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 12,546 @ $22.55 | $283K | −11.2% of holding | +85.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $17.75 | $71K | −3.0% of holding | +46.2% | +157.0% | 131,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $20.80 | $83K | −2.9% of holding | −7.9% | +139.7% | 135,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 10,046 @ $20.07 | $202K | −8.2% of holding | −4.7% | +137.0% | 112,272 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 1,346 @ $19.03 | $26K | −1.1% of holding | −1.2% | +202.0% | 122,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $24.83 | $1.5M | −20.9% of holding | −3.7% | −28.1% | 227,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Sale | 3,447 @ $24.84 | $86K | −1.5% of holding | −3.7% | −28.1% | 227,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | HERSCHER PENNY | director | Sale | 682 @ $25.00 | $17K | −3.7% of holding | −6.9% | −30.4% | 17,540 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-15 | HERSCHER PENNY | director | Sale | 2,046 @ $25.42 | $52K | −10.1% of holding | −6.5% | −31.0% | 18,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 2,278 @ $17.50 | $40K | −2.6% of holding | +5.1% | +6.6% | 84,359 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Sale | 3,219 @ $20.00 | $64K | −1.4% of holding | −10.0% | +24.3% | 231,548 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Sale | 6,667 @ $22.14 | $148K | −2.8% of holding | −6.1% | +2.2% | 231,548 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Sale | 2,131 @ $20.94 | $45K | −2.3% of holding | +1.9% | +15.2% | 89,469 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Sale | 6,667 @ $20.55 | $137K | −2.8% of holding | +6.7% | +15.7% | 231,548 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Sale | 6,666 @ $20.00 | $133K | −2.7% of holding | −3.5% | −2.4% | 235,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Sale | 13,334 @ $20.05 | $267K | −5.3% of holding | +2.9% | −4.2% | 235,960 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
79 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,061 | 117,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,042 | 64,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Johnson Aaron Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 896 | 31,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Frey Anthony George | officer | Withheld for tax | 532 | 75,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | HEARD DAVID W | director | Award / grant | 4,485 | 4,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,062 | 129,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,605 | 101,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,288 | 93,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Frey Anthony George | officer | Withheld for tax | 532 | 76,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Award / grant | 10,034 | 34,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | NAYYAR SANDEEP | director | Award / grant | 10,034 | 45,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Straub Maximiliane C | director | Award / grant | 10,034 | 66,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | PUMA MARY G | director | Award / grant | 10,034 | 25,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | HERSCHER PENNY | director | Award / grant | 10,034 | 27,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Shaikh Kashif | director | Award / grant | 137,898 | 376,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Shaikh Kashif | director | Award / grant | 238,188 | 238,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Adams Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 12,513 | 963,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,379 | 139,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,988 | 103,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,564 | 123,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Frey Anthony George | officer | Withheld for tax | 610 | 74,954 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Award / grant | 9,684 | 106,826 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,778 | 239,364 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Adams Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 11,419 | 975,696 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,639 | 142,731 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,937 | 97,142 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,890 | 126,228 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Adams Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 54,822 | 987,115 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,669 | 251,142 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,535 | 127,729 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,928 | 145,370 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Adams Mark | director | Award / grant | 107,958 | 1,041,937 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Award / grant | 53,978 | 151,264 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Award / grant | 43,182 | 167,298 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-14 | Pacheco Jack A | officer | Award / grant | 48,580 | 275,811 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Clark Joseph Gates | officer | Award / grant | 14,816 | 97,286 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Frey Anthony George | officer | Award / grant | 23,706 | 75,564 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Kuykendall Anne | officer | Award / grant | 23,706 | 124,116 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Award / grant | 19,755 | 99,079 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Adams Mark | director | Award / grant | 108,656 | 933,979 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.