Issued 2026-09-16 at $318.40 · now $318.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PEN has typically landed between $265.05 and $375.63 — a range of −16.8% to +18.0% from the issuance price $318.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,743 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-09-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($318.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PEN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $318.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $318.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $318.23 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $295.72–$340.74
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $265.05–$375.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,743 windows spanning 2015-09-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −37.8% | −37.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −35.3% | −35.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-08 | −35.2% | −37.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-12-28 | +49.9% | −0.5% | +54.2% |
| 2020-12-29 | +48.5% | −0.4% | +54.3% |
| 2020-03-23 | +45.4% | +0.0% | +45.6% |
2,743 overlapping windows · 2015-09-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
82%
+8.3%
n=11
Feb
55%
+1.7%
n=11
Mar
45%
+0.7%
n=11
Apr
64%
+1.8%
n=11
May
27%
−1.2%
n=11
Jun
55%
+1.6%
n=11
Jul
55%
+2.7%
n=11
Aug
64%
+2.3%
n=11
Sep
36%
−0.3%
n=11
Oct
45%
+1.1%
n=11
Nov
73%
+8.9%
n=11
Dec
55%
−0.1%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Grewal Harpreet | director | Sale | 100 @ $328.22 | $33K | −1.1% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,719 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Yuen Maggie | director | Sale | 2,432 @ $342.30 | $832K | −11.7% of holding | +0.9% | −18.0% | 18,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Grewal Harpreet | director | Sale | 186 @ $312.64 | $58K | −2.2% of holding | +10.0% | −8.9% | 8,230 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Wilder Thomas | director | Sale | 186 @ $310.72 | $58K | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | −7.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 4,946 @ $306.60 | $1.5M | −1.8% of holding | −4.3% | −8.0% | 266,486 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 3,523 @ $311.47 | $1.1M | −1.3% of holding | −4.3% | −8.0% | 260,357 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 2,082 @ $310.50 | $646K | −0.8% of holding | −4.3% | −8.0% | 263,880 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 2,030 @ $305.19 | $620K | −0.7% of holding | −4.3% | −8.0% | 271,432 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 1,895 @ $312.20 | $592K | −0.7% of holding | −4.3% | −8.0% | 258,462 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 520 @ $307.10 | $160K | −0.2% of holding | −4.3% | −8.0% | 265,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 4 @ $308.00 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −4.3% | −8.0% | 265,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 300 @ $300.13 | $90K | −0.5% of holding | +4.3% | −1.3% | 63,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Grewal Harpreet | director | Sale | 100 @ $292.98 | $29K | −1.2% of holding | +7.0% | −0.3% | 8,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 155 @ $294.52 | $46K | −0.2% of holding | +6.1% | −2.0% | 64,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 144 @ $295.38 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | +6.1% | −2.0% | 64,304 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 94 @ $292.09 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | −2.0% | 64,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 80 @ $296.27 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | −2.0% | 64,224 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 78 @ $297.50 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | −2.0% | 64,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 39 @ $293.27 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | −2.0% | 64,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 10 @ $298.02 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +6.1% | −2.0% | 64,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $300.19 | $2.3M | −2.7% of holding | +3.5% | −6.1% | 275,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $300.06 | $540K | −2.7% of holding | +3.5% | −6.1% | 64,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 7,338 @ $290.55 | $2.1M | −2.5% of holding | +4.8% | −3.5% | 282,923 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Bose Arani | director | Sale | 162 @ $291.09 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | +4.8% | −3.5% | 282,761 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 211 @ $266.72 | $56K | −0.3% of holding | +11.1% | +9.7% | 63,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 168 @ $265.93 | $45K | −0.3% of holding | +11.1% | +9.7% | 64,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 85 @ $267.56 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +11.1% | +9.7% | 63,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 76 @ $269.01 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | +11.1% | +9.7% | 63,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 36 @ $269.56 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +11.1% | +9.7% | 63,657 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 13 @ $264.89 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +11.1% | +9.7% | 64,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 11 @ $263.58 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +11.1% | +9.7% | 64,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Grewal Harpreet | director | Sale | 186 @ $227.58 | $42K | −2.1% of holding | +24.0% | +29.1% | 8,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Grewal Harpreet | director | Sale | 186 @ $248.61 | $46K | −2.1% of holding | −12.2% | +31.1% | 8,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Wilder Thomas | director | Sale | 186 @ $253.93 | $47K | −50.0% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 144 @ $251.81 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,359 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 125 @ $247.79 | $31K | −0.2% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,606 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 66 @ $250.84 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 41 @ $252.36 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 36 @ $254.96 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,262 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 35 @ $246.93 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 35 @ $245.68 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 32 @ $244.93 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,801 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 24 @ $243.61 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 23 @ $248.67 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 20 @ $254.05 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 14 @ $249.71 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,569 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 5 @ $256.63 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −8.9% | +33.7% | 64,257 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | director | Sale | 7,575 @ $270.09 | $2.0M | −4.0% of holding | −10.3% | +19.8% | 183,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | director | Sale | 4,674 @ $269.26 | $1.3M | −2.4% of holding | −10.3% | +19.8% | 191,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | director | Sale | 2,351 @ $268.41 | $631K | −1.2% of holding | −10.3% | +19.8% | 195,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Elsesser Adam | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $270.81 | $325K | −0.7% of holding | −10.3% | +19.8% | 182,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 222 @ $269.20 | $60K | −0.3% of holding | −12.1% | +18.4% | 65,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Grewal Harpreet | director | Sale | 186 @ $272.19 | $51K | −2.0% of holding | −12.1% | +18.4% | 8,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 152 @ $270.19 | $41K | −0.2% of holding | −12.1% | +18.4% | 65,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 105 @ $272.23 | $29K | −0.2% of holding | −12.1% | +18.4% | 64,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 61 @ $271.22 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | −12.1% | +18.4% | 65,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Sale | 60 @ $273.12 | $16K | −0.1% of holding | −12.1% | +18.4% | 64,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Elsesser Adam | director | Sale | 9,114 @ $254.27 | $2.3M | −4.9% of holding | −4.3% | +24.0% | 176,607 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Elsesser Adam | director | Sale | 6,227 @ $254.99 | $1.6M | −3.5% of holding | −4.3% | +24.0% | 170,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Elsesser Adam | director | Sale | 459 @ $252.86 | $116K | −0.2% of holding | −4.3% | +24.0% | 185,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
84 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Award / grant | 3,060 | 33,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Elsesser Adam | director | Gift | 77,000 | 683,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Yuen Maggie | director | Withheld for tax | 186 | 18,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Withheld for tax | 186 | 67,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Withheld for tax | 150 | 39,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Withheld for tax | 117 | 30,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Award / grant | 2,300 | 39,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Award / grant | 2,630 | 67,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Award / grant | 2,630 | 30,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Yuen Maggie | director | Award / grant | 2,630 | 20,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Withheld for tax | 705 | 28,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Withheld for tax | 482 | 64,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Yuen Maggie | director | Withheld for tax | 481 | 18,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Withheld for tax | 412 | 37,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Award / grant | 2,630 | 28,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Sarna Surbhi | director | Award / grant | 589 | 4,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Yuen Maggie | director | Award / grant | 2,630 | 18,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Bose Arani | director | Award / grant | 589 | 1,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Grewal Harpreet | director | Award / grant | 589 | 8,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | O'Rourke Bridget | director | Award / grant | 589 | 5,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Award / grant | 2,630 | 65,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Award / grant | 2,300 | 37,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Wilder Thomas | director | Award / grant | 589 | 589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Leeds Janet | director | Award / grant | 589 | 6,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Withheld for tax | 286 | 26,317 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,130 | 62,706 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Yuen Maggie | director | Withheld for tax | 565 | 16,006 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Withheld for tax | 300 | 35,285 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Bose Arani | director | Gift | 1,799 | 273,462 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Award / grant | 3,580 | 66,536 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Award / grant | 3,580 | 35,565 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Yuen Maggie | director | Award / grant | 3,580 | 16,556 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Withheld for tax | 545 | 62,956 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Withheld for tax | 506 | 31,985 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Yuen Maggie | director | Withheld for tax | 364 | 13,303 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Withheld for tax | 358 | 26,603 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Shiu Lambert | officer | Withheld for tax | 346 | 32,491 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Yuen Maggie | director | Withheld for tax | 327 | 12,976 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Roberts Johanna | officer | Withheld for tax | 156 | 63,501 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Narayan Shruthi | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,294 | 26,961 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.