PEGA · TickerCove

PEGAPegasystems Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.84 · now $36.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PEGA has typically landed between $29.90 and $44.39 — a range of −18.8% to +20.5% from the issuance price $36.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$36.84 · 27% of range

$25.99 low$66.49 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 17.2%

−18.8%worst (p90)+20.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PEGA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $36.84 (+0.0%)
typical $36.39 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $33.23–$39.55
90% range $29.9–$44.39

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-04-19	−38.0%	−38.0%	+1.1%
2020-02-18	−37.3%	−37.3%	+1.7%
2022-04-25	−36.5%	−36.5%	+4.5%
3 best
2009-05-01	+68.3%	+0.0%	+68.3%
2009-05-04	+57.9%	+0.0%	+60.1%
2025-04-21	+55.6%	+0.0%	+55.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.9%

n=20

Feb

70%

+4.7%

n=20

Mar

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Apr

45%

+1.1%

n=20

May

60%

+6.1%

n=20

Jun

65%

+3.4%

n=20

Jul

70%

+2.4%

n=20

Aug

50%

−0.1%

n=20

Sep

55%

+0.2%

n=20

Oct

55%

+1.5%

n=20

Nov

60%

+2.8%

n=20

Dec

40%

+1.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Sale	39,627 @ $35.77	$1.4M	−29.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	95,225	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-11	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Sale	7,000 @ $36.03	$252K	−6.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	104,804	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-03	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	1,063 @ $38.75	$41K	−47.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,164	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-31	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	1,012 @ $36.50	$37K	−50.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,009	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-25	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Sale	1,700 @ $33.98	$58K	−1.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	109,349	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Sale	1,300 @ $34.00	$44K	−1.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	108,049	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	860 @ $33.10	$28K	−46.0% of holding	+7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,009	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	860 @ $32.30	$28K	−31.5% of holding	+10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,869	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-16	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	650 @ $32.31	$21K	−20.8% of holding	+0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	2,476	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-16	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	100 @ $32.31	$3K	−4.0% of holding	+0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	2,376	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	750 @ $36.99	$28K	−25.9% of holding	−16.5%	not yet — horizon still open	2,144	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	750 @ $34.75	$26K	−20.6% of holding	−15.1%	not yet — horizon still open	2,894	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-19	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Sale	4,545 @ $33.35	$152K	−4.1% of holding	−12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	107,070	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Sale	8,383 @ $36.45	$306K	−7.2% of holding	−8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	108,532	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $43.17	$43K	−0.9% of holding	−24.4%	not yet — horizon still open	108,532	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $42.88	$43K	−22.9% of holding	−2.9%	−26.1%	3,365	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Sale	7,594 @ $43.39	$330K	−6.4% of holding	−5.1%	−25.8%	111,429	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Sale	8,088 @ $43.56	$352K	−6.8% of holding	−10.4%	−30.6%	111,429	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Sale	44,000 @ $44.81	$2.0M	−28.7% of holding	−11.4%	−34.7%	109,123	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Trefler Leon	officer	Sale	6,700 @ $44.76	$300K	−5.4% of holding	−11.4%	−34.7%	118,372	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Sale	7,000 @ $43.84	$307K	−6.5% of holding	+0.4%	−29.7%	99,962	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $43.37	$43K	−0.7% of holding	+0.4%	−29.7%	134,516	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

278 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	TREFLER ALAN	director	Gift	2,999,613	0	Form 4
2026-09-14	TREFLER ALAN	director	Gift	5,399,303	16,275,828	Form 4
2026-09-14	TREFLER ALAN	director	Gift	2,399,690	0	Form 4
2026-09-07	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Withheld for tax	2,055	134,852	Form 4
2026-09-07	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Withheld for tax	1,273	60,110	Form 4
2026-09-07	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Withheld for tax	1,103	111,804	Form 4
2026-09-07	Trefler Leon	officer	Withheld for tax	1,046	131,651	Form 4
2026-09-07	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Withheld for tax	82	1,991	Form 4
2026-09-07	Trefler Leon	officer	Option exercise	2,658	132,697	Form 4
2026-09-07	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Option exercise	2,280	4,556	Form 4
2026-09-07	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Option exercise	2,280	61,383	Form 4
2026-09-07	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Option exercise	2,280	112,907	Form 4
2026-09-07	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Option exercise	5,220	10,442	Form 4
2026-09-07	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Option exercise	5,220	136,907	Form 4
2026-09-07	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Option exercise	334	2,073	Form 4
2026-09-07	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Option exercise	2,280	4,556	Form 4
2026-09-07	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Option exercise	334	664	Form 4
2026-09-07	Trefler Leon	officer	Option exercise	2,658	5,316	Form 4
2026-09-05	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Withheld for tax	1,733	131,687	Form 4
2026-09-05	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Withheld for tax	1,229	59,103	Form 4
2026-09-05	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Withheld for tax	1,065	110,627	Form 4
2026-09-05	Trefler Leon	officer	Withheld for tax	867	130,039	Form 4
2026-09-05	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Withheld for tax	108	1,739	Form 4
2026-09-05	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Option exercise	4,402	26,414	Form 4
2026-09-05	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Option exercise	440	2,642	Form 4
2026-09-05	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Option exercise	2,202	111,692	Form 4
2026-09-05	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Option exercise	2,202	13,206	Form 4
2026-09-05	Trefler Leon	officer	Option exercise	2,202	13,206	Form 4
2026-09-05	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Option exercise	4,402	133,420	Form 4
2026-09-05	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Option exercise	2,202	60,332	Form 4
2026-09-05	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Option exercise	2,202	13,206	Form 4
2026-09-05	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Option exercise	440	1,847	Form 4
2026-09-05	Trefler Leon	officer	Option exercise	2,202	130,906	Form 4
2026-09-04	STILLWELL KENNETH	officer	Withheld for tax	1,272	129,018	Form 4
2026-09-04	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Withheld for tax	902	58,130	Form 4
2026-09-04	Akgonul Rifat Kerim	officer	Withheld for tax	782	109,490	Form 4
2026-09-04	Trefler Leon	officer	Withheld for tax	636	128,704	Form 4
2026-09-04	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Withheld for tax	79	1,407	Form 4
2026-09-04	KOUNINIS EFSTATHIOS A	officer	Option exercise	322	1,486	Form 4
2026-09-04	Higgins John Gerard	officer	Option exercise	1,616	59,032	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i