PECO · TickerCove

PECOPhillips Edison & Co.Real Estate · REIT - Retailas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.80 · now $37.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PECO has typically landed between $34.84 and $41.25 — a range of −7.8% to +9.1% from the issuance price $37.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,375 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$37.8 · 47% of range

$32.38 low$44.01 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 7.1%

−7.8%worst (p90)+9.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PECO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $37.8 (+0.0%)
typical $38.1 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $36.76–$39.43
90% range $34.84–$41.25

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,375 windows spanning 2021-02-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-08-30	−16.5%	−16.5%	+5.4%
2022-09-12	−16.2%	−20.8%	+0.0%
2022-09-07	−15.9%	−18.7%	+2.7%
3 best
2021-06-18	+59.8%	+0.0%	+59.8%
2021-06-23	+59.8%	+0.0%	+59.8%
2021-06-24	+59.6%	+0.0%	+59.8%

1,375 overlapping windows · 2021-02-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.8%

n=5

Feb

100%

+3.9%

n=5

Mar

33%

−0.5%

n=6

Apr

33%

−0.5%

n=6

May

50%

+0.3%

n=6

Jun

67%

+5.1%

n=6

Jul

83%

+7.0%

n=6

Aug

50%

+0.2%

n=6

Sep

33%

−2.4%

n=6

Oct

60%

+2.3%

n=5

Nov

100%

+4.3%

n=5

Dec

60%

+0.8%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

188 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-12	CHAO LESLIE T	director	Award / grant	2,901	54,981	Form 4
2026-05-12	Fischer Elizabeth	director	Award / grant	2,901	24,758	Form 4
2026-05-12	Silfen Jane	director	Award / grant	2,901	24,758	Form 4
2026-05-12	Wang Parilee Edison	director	Award / grant	2,901	2,901	Form 4
2026-05-12	Strong John A.	director	Award / grant	2,901	27,151	Form 4
2026-05-12	Wood Gregory S.	director	Award / grant	2,901	30,222	Form 4
2026-05-12	Murphy Devin Ignatius	director	Award / grant	2,901	2,901	Form 4
2026-05-12	QUAZZO STEPHEN R	director	Award / grant	2,901	50,336	Form 4
2026-05-12	Terry Anthony E	director	Award / grant	2,901	11,238	Form 4
2026-05-01	Murphy Devin Ignatius	director	Option exercise	3,290	0	Form 4
2026-05-01	Murphy Devin Ignatius	director	Option exercise	3,290	346,280	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wang Parilee Edison	director	Option exercise	3,290	0	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wang Parilee Edison	director	Option exercise	3,290	6,654	Form 4
2026-03-01	Robison Jennifer L	officer	Withheld for tax	891	36,010	Form 4
2026-03-01	Schlosser Joseph	officer	Withheld for tax	633	25,218	Form 4
2026-03-01	Edison Jeffrey	director	Option exercise	9,003	9,003	Form 4
2026-03-01	Edison Jeffrey	director	Option exercise	10,782	21,564	Form 4
2026-03-01	Edison Jeffrey	director	Option exercise	10,752	32,259	Form 4
2026-03-01	Edison Jeffrey	director	Option exercise	39,672	129,227	Form 4
2026-03-01	Edison Jeffrey	director	Option exercise	4,481	133,707	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Option exercise	1,239	2,478	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Option exercise	8,588	92,252	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Option exercise	839	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Option exercise	839	93,091	Form 4
2026-03-01	Schlosser Joseph	officer	Award / grant	6,110	6,110	Form 4
2026-03-01	Schlosser Joseph	officer	Option exercise	1,344	4,032	Form 4
2026-03-01	Schlosser Joseph	officer	Option exercise	1,344	1,344	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Award / grant	5,397	5,397	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Option exercise	625	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Option exercise	1,184	1,184	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Option exercise	1,258	3,774	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Option exercise	4,306	67,075	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Option exercise	502	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Brady Tanya	officer	Option exercise	502	67,577	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Award / grant	12,016	12,016	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Option exercise	1,134	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Option exercise	1,962	1,963	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Option exercise	2,535	5,069	Form 4
2026-03-01	Caulfield John P	officer	Option exercise	2,957	8,871	Form 4
2026-03-01	Murphy Devin Ignatius	director	Option exercise	1,151	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i