PDYNPalladyne AI Corp.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.61 · now $5.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PDYN has typically landed between $3.56 and $8.65 — a range of −36.5% to +54.2% from the issuance price $5.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,222 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PDYN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.56worst · -36.5%$8.65best · +54.2%
  • now $5.61 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.36 (-4.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.34–$6.39
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.56–$8.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,222 windows spanning 2021-09-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-11-16−56.2%−56.2%+0.0%
2022-11-15−55.3%−55.3%+0.0%
2022-11-11−54.2%−54.2%+0.0%
3 best
2024-02-15+338.0%+0.0%+338.0%
2024-02-02+296.8%−8.5%+298.8%
2024-02-20+286.9%−3.5%+299.6%

1,222 overlapping windows · 2021-09-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−7.6%
n=5
Feb
80%
+30.6%
n=5
Mar
40%
−1.5%
n=5
Apr
40%
−13.4%
n=5
May
60%
+20.2%
n=5
Jun
20%
−18.3%
n=5
Jul
40%
+4.9%
n=5
Aug
20%
−10.8%
n=5
Sep
40%
−7.6%
n=5
Oct
20%
−9.2%
n=5
Nov
60%
+35.4%
n=5
Dec
60%
+10.7%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$10$42026-09-08: 1 insider purchase, $99K — Wolff Benjamin G2026-08-21: 3 insider sales, $168K — GARAGIC DENIS, SONNE STEPHEN, THATCHER TREVOR2026-05-21: 3 insider sales, $166K — GARAGIC DENIS, SONNE STEPHEN, THATCHER TREVOR2026-03-30: 3 insider sales, $120K — GARAGIC DENIS, SONNE STEPHEN, THATCHER TREVOR2026-03-27: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Wolff Benjamin G2026-03-12: 3 insider sales, $207K — GARAGIC DENIS, THATCHER TREVOR, SONNE STEPHEN2025-11-21: 4 insider sales, $145K — GARAGIC DENIS, Martindale Kristi, SONNE STEPHEN, THATCHER TREVOR2025-11-21: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Young Michael T.2025-11-20: 1 insider purchase, $16K — Wolff Benjamin G2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $43K — Wolff Benjamin G2025-11-18: 2 insider purchases, $68K — Wolff Benjamin G, Young Michael T.2025-08-21: 4 insider sales, $200K — GARAGIC DENIS, Martindale Kristi, SONNE STEPHEN, THATCHER TREVOR2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $200K2025-11: 5 open-market purchases, $143K2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $145K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $6K2026-03: 6 open-market sales, $327K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $166K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $168K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $99K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Wolff Benjamin G — Purchase on 2026-09-08, filed same dayofficer GARAGIC DENIS — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same dayofficer SONNE STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same dayofficer THATCHER TREVOR — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same dayofficer GARAGIC DENIS — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer SONNE STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer THATCHER TREVOR — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer GARAGIC DENIS — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SONNE STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer THATCHER TREVOR — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wolff Benjamin G — Purchase on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer GARAGIC DENIS — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same dayofficer THATCHER TREVOR — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same dayofficer SONNE STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same dayofficer GARAGIC DENIS — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same dayofficer Martindale Kristi — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same dayofficer SONNE STEPHEN — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same daydirector Young Michael T. — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer THATCHER TREVOR — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed same daydirector Wolff Benjamin G — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Wolff Benjamin G — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wolff Benjamin G — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed same daydirector Young Michael T. — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer GARAGIC DENIS — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed same dayofficer Martindale Kristi — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed same dayofficer SONNE STEPHEN — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed same dayofficer THATCHER TREVOR — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase17,121 @ $5.79$99K+4.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open400,240Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-21GARAGIC DENISofficerSale17,255 @ $6.16$106K−1.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open990,798Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-21SONNE STEPHENofficerSale5,341 @ $6.16$33K−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open340,690Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-21THATCHER TREVORofficerSale4,636 @ $6.16$29K−1.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open319,602Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21GARAGIC DENISofficerSale17,176 @ $6.14$106K−3.0% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open559,959Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21SONNE STEPHENofficerSale5,245 @ $6.14$32K−2.6% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open197,490Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21THATCHER TREVORofficerSale4,561 @ $6.14$28K−2.5% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open175,697Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-30GARAGIC DENISofficerSale15,149 @ $5.55$84K−2.6% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open577,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30SONNE STEPHENofficerSale3,471 @ $5.55$19K−1.7% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open202,735Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30THATCHER TREVORofficerSale3,030 @ $5.55$17K−1.7% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open180,258Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-27Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $5.85$6K+0.0% of holding−5.7%not yet — horizon still open2,837,401Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12GARAGIC DENISofficerSale12,945 @ $7.55$98K−2.1% of holding−10.9%−33.6%592,284Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12THATCHER TREVORofficerSale7,649 @ $7.55$58K−4.0% of holding−10.9%−33.6%183,288Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12SONNE STEPHENofficerSale6,802 @ $7.55$51K−3.2% of holding−10.9%−33.6%206,206Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21GARAGIC DENISofficerSale15,611 @ $5.11$80K−2.7% of holding−13.8%+31.2%569,248Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21Martindale KristiofficerSale6,753 @ $5.11$35K−2.2% of holding−13.8%+31.2%305,483Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21SONNE STEPHENofficerSale3,411 @ $5.11$17K−1.8% of holding−13.8%+31.2%187,008Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21Young Michael T.directorPurchase3,000 @ $5.19$16K+14.9% of holding−13.8%+31.2%23,119Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21THATCHER TREVORofficerSale2,648 @ $5.11$14K−1.6% of holding−13.8%+31.2%164,937Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-20Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $5.29$16K+0.1% of holding−13.8%+19.1%2,836,401Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-19Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $5.40$43K+0.3% of holding−20.4%+6.5%2,833,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $5.49$38K+0.2% of holding−26.5%−2.9%2,825,401Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-18Young Michael T.directorPurchase5,300 @ $5.61$30K+35.8% of holding−26.5%−2.9%20,119Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21GARAGIC DENISofficerSale14,809 @ $7.42$110K−2.5% of holding+12.7%−17.8%584,859Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21Martindale KristiofficerSale6,406 @ $7.42$48K−2.0% of holding+12.7%−17.8%312,236Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21SONNE STEPHENofficerSale3,236 @ $7.42$24K−1.7% of holding+12.7%−17.8%190,419Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21THATCHER TREVORofficerSale2,512 @ $7.42$19K−1.5% of holding+12.7%−17.8%167,585Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-20GARAGIC DENISofficerSale15,653 @ $7.24$113K−2.5% of holding+15.7%−36.4%598,668Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20Martindale KristiofficerSale6,772 @ $7.24$49K−2.1% of holding+15.7%−36.4%318,307Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20SONNE STEPHENofficerSale3,422 @ $7.24$25K−1.7% of holding+15.7%−36.4%192,655Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20THATCHER TREVORofficerSale2,623 @ $7.24$19K−1.5% of holding+15.7%−36.4%169,097Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Martindale KristiofficerSale51,141 @ $5.82$297K−13.6% of holding+4.3%+26.3%325,079Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31THATCHER TREVORofficerSale10,919 @ $5.82$64K−6.0% of holding+4.3%+26.3%171,720Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase1,775 @ $5.82$10K+0.1% of holding+4.3%+26.3%1,318,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-31GARAGIC DENISofficerSale1,657 @ $5.82$10K−0.3% of holding+4.3%+26.3%614,321Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31SONNE STEPHENofficerSale1,141 @ $5.82$7K−0.6% of holding+4.3%+26.3%196,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31VOGT MATTHEWofficerSale538 @ $5.82$3K−0.3% of holding+4.3%+26.3%166,385Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-28Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $5.66$14K+0.2% of holding−4.2%+12.0%1,316,626Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-11Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase2,923 @ $5.90$17K+0.2% of holding+1.2%−6.5%1,314,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07Wolff Benjamin GdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $6.40$32K+0.4% of holding−5.6%−9.6%1,311,203Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-24GARAGIC DENISofficerSale55,827 @ $7.03$392K−10.1% of holding+14.3%+10.1%495,978Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24VOGT MATTHEWofficerSale14,938 @ $7.03$105K−13.4% of holding+14.3%+10.1%96,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24SONNE STEPHENofficerSale10,529 @ $7.03$74K−7.6% of holding+14.3%+10.1%127,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08Young Michael T.directorAward / grant15,08338,202Form 4
2026-06-08SONNE STEPHENofficerAward / grant147,541346,031Form 4
2026-06-08THATCHER TREVORofficerAward / grant147,541324,238Form 4
2026-06-08Twitty StephendirectorAward / grant15,08324,848Form 4
2026-06-08FINN BRIAN DdirectorAward / grant15,08374,079Form 4
2026-06-08GARAGIC DENISofficerAward / grant447,0941,008,053Form 4
2026-06-08Olson Eric TdirectorAward / grant15,08374,079Form 4
2026-06-08WEIBLING DENNIS MdirectorAward / grant15,083344,786Form 4
2026-06-08Wolff Benjamin GdirectorAward / grant4,470,9427,308,343Form 4
2026-06-01SONNE STEPHENofficerAward / grant1,000198,490Form 4
2026-06-01THATCHER TREVORofficerAward / grant1,000176,697Form 4
2026-06-01GARAGIC DENISofficerAward / grant1,000560,959Form 4
2026-03-10GARAGIC DENISofficerAward / grant35,000605,229Form 4
2026-03-10SONNE STEPHENofficerAward / grant25,000213,008Form 4
2026-03-10THATCHER TREVORofficerAward / grant25,000190,937Form 4
2025-12-01SONNE STEPHENofficerAward / grant1,000188,008Form 4
2025-12-01THATCHER TREVORofficerAward / grant1,000165,937Form 4
2025-12-01GARAGIC DENISofficerAward / grant981570,229Form 4
2025-12-01Martindale KristiofficerAward / grant346305,829Form 4
2025-09-22Twitty StephendirectorAward / grant9,0789,765Form 4
2025-09-19WEIBLING DENNIS MdirectorGift25,000329,703Form 4
2025-07-02Wolff Benjamin GdirectorAward / grant1,500,0002,818,401Form 4
2025-06-26WEIBLING DENNIS MdirectorGift50,000354,703Form 4
2025-06-11Muta Matthew ShigenobudirectorAward / grant14,81958,996Form 4
2025-06-11Olson Eric TdirectorAward / grant14,81958,996Form 4
2025-06-11FINN BRIAN DdirectorAward / grant14,81958,996Form 4
2025-06-11Young Michael T.directorAward / grant14,81914,819Form 4
2025-06-11WEIBLING DENNIS MdirectorAward / grant14,819404,703Form 4
2025-06-01SONNE STEPHENofficerAward / grant1,000193,655Form 4
2025-06-01GARAGIC DENISofficerAward / grant1,000599,668Form 4
2025-06-01THATCHER TREVORofficerAward / grant1,000170,097Form 4
2025-06-01Martindale KristiofficerAward / grant335318,642Form 4
2025-03-10Martindale KristiofficerAward / grant80,000376,220Form 4
2025-03-10SONNE STEPHENofficerAward / grant70,000197,218Form 4
2025-03-10VOGT MATTHEWofficerAward / grant70,000166,923Form 4
2025-03-10THATCHER TREVORofficerAward / grant70,000182,639Form 4
2025-03-10GARAGIC DENISofficerAward / grant120,000615,978Form 4
2025-02-24Young Michael T.directorAward / grant16,66716,667Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.