PDPagerDuty, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.48 · now $14.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PD has typically landed between $11.34 and $17.36 — a range of −21.7% to +19.9% from the issuance price $14.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,835 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-04-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.34worst · -21.7%$17.36best · +19.9%
  • now $14.48 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.32 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.16–$15.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.34–$17.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,835 windows spanning 2019-04-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-22−44.2%−44.2%+0.7%
2026-01-13−42.9%−42.9%+0.6%
2026-01-23−42.8%−44.0%+1.1%
3 best
2026-04-30+60.8%+0.0%+60.8%
2020-11-16+55.6%−0.8%+55.6%
2020-11-18+53.7%+0.0%+56.9%

1,835 overlapping windows · 2019-04-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
57%
+1.2%
n=7
Feb
43%
−7.6%
n=7
Mar
43%
−3.3%
n=7
Apr
43%
−3.3%
n=7
May
38%
+5.6%
n=8
Jun
63%
+1.5%
n=8
Jul
50%
+0.5%
n=8
Aug
63%
+7.5%
n=8
Sep
13%
−9.7%
n=8
Oct
29%
−3.6%
n=7
Nov
57%
+2.1%
n=7
Dec
57%
+4.3%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$62026-07-17: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Tejada Jennifer2026-07-16: 1 insider sale, $3.2M — Tejada Jennifer2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $727K — Tejada Jennifer2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Tejada Jennifer2025-12-30: 1 insider sale, $3.6M — Solomon Dan Alexandru2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $3.6M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $3.2M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $4.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Tejada Jennifer — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Tejada Jennifer — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Tejada Jennifer — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tejada Jennifer — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Solomon Dan Alexandru — Sale on 2025-12-30, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-17Tejada JenniferdirectorSale96,847 @ $10.41$1.0M−5.5% of holding+30.7%not yet — horizon still open1,678,251Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-16Tejada JenniferdirectorSale302,100 @ $10.70$3.2M−15.3% of holding+30.4%not yet — horizon still open1,678,251Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-19Tejada JenniferdirectorSale105,101 @ $6.92$727K−5.7% of holding+21.0%not yet — horizon still open1,749,461Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Tejada JenniferdirectorSale358,400 @ $6.98$2.5M−16.2% of holding+23.7%not yet — horizon still open1,854,562Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-30Solomon Dan AlexandrudirectorSale266,667 @ $13.35$3.6M−10.0% of holding−21.3%−34.2%2,389,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25Solomon Dan AlexandrudirectorSale48 @ $18.00$864−0.0% of holding+3.0%−37.5%2,656,975Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-28Tejada JenniferdirectorSale1,569 @ $20.00$31K−0.2% of holding−7.7%−22.7%868,311Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28Wilson HowardofficerSale600 @ $20.00$12K−0.1% of holding−7.7%−22.7%602,726Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06WEBB SHELLEYofficerSale7,879 @ $18.19$143K−3.8% of holding+4.8%−17.1%199,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-12Tejada JenniferdirectorSale12,500 @ $20.12$252K−1.4% of holding−7.7%−27.8%907,631Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-10Solomon Dan AlexandrudirectorSale137,700 @ $20.49$2.8M−4.9% of holding−9.4%−29.0%2,646,945Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26DiLullo John DdirectorWithheld for tax28,8471,090,116Form 4
2026-08-26DiLullo John DdirectorAward / grant294,4641,118,963Form 4
2026-07-17Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise96,8471,775,098Form 4
2026-07-17Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise96,8470Form 4
2026-07-16Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise302,1001,980,351Form 4
2026-07-16Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise302,10096,847Form 4
2026-07-14Shootman AlexdirectorAward / grant40,94640,946Form 4
2026-07-02Tejada JenniferdirectorWithheld for tax71,2101,678,251Form 4
2026-07-02Wilson HowardofficerWithheld for tax15,062697,169Form 4
2026-07-02Underwood Paul D.otherWithheld for tax4,264143,093Form 4
2026-07-02Prengel Eric TheodoreofficerAward / grant600,000600,000Form 4
2026-06-18CARTY DONALD JdirectorAward / grant21,81650,478Form 4
2026-06-18Carlson TeresadirectorAward / grant21,81653,470Form 4
2026-06-18FRANKLIN SARAH JOYCEdirectorAward / grant21,81655,103Form 4
2026-06-18Gomez ElenadirectorAward / grant21,81666,424Form 4
2026-06-18Losch William EdirectorAward / grant21,81667,274Form 4
2026-06-18Murthy RathidirectorAward / grant21,81666,424Form 4
2026-06-18NELSON ZACHARYdirectorAward / grant21,816364,883Form 4
2026-06-18Stewart Bonita C.directorAward / grant21,81669,120Form 4
2026-05-19Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise105,1012,212,962Form 4
2026-05-19Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise105,101398,947Form 4
2026-05-18Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise358,4002,107,861Form 4
2026-05-18Tejada JenniferdirectorOption exercise358,400504,048Form 4
2026-05-11DiLullo John DdirectorAward / grant824,499824,499Form 4
2026-04-02Tejada JenniferdirectorWithheld for tax69,0621,219,426Form 4
2026-04-02Wilson HowardofficerWithheld for tax17,816712,231Form 4
2026-04-02Underwood Paul D.otherWithheld for tax3,323120,415Form 4
2026-04-02Tejada JenniferdirectorAward / grant530,0351,749,461Form 4
2026-04-02Underwood Paul D.otherAward / grant25,000145,415Form 4
2026-02-09Aronson Scott MatthewdirectorAward / grant57,54457,544Form 4
2026-01-02Tejada JenniferdirectorWithheld for tax57,7301,288,488Form 4
2026-01-02Wilson HowardofficerWithheld for tax18,594730,047Form 4
2026-01-02Underwood Paul D.otherWithheld for tax2,16580,036Form 4
2025-10-10Tejada JenniferdirectorGift62,736171,870Form 4
2025-10-10Tejada JenniferdirectorGift31,36831,368Form 4
2025-10-09Tejada JenniferdirectorGift17,940207,660Form 4
2025-10-09Tejada JenniferdirectorGift8,9250Form 4
2025-10-09Tejada JenniferdirectorGift17,850189,720Form 4
2025-10-09Tejada JenniferdirectorGift8,9704,456Form 4
2025-10-09Tejada JenniferdirectorGift13,47311,527Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.