Issued 2026-08-13 at $59.65 · now $58.86 (2026-08-13, −1.3% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, PCVX has typically landed between $48.89 and $75.11 — a range of −18.0% to +25.9% from the issuance price $59.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,528 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($59.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PCVX has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $59.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $58.86 (-1.3%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $60.68 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.06–$66.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.89–$75.11
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −61.7% | −61.7% | +4.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | −61.0% | −62.5% | +1.9% |
| 2025-03-17 | −59.8% | −62.7% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-10-21 | +114.6% | +0.0% | +118.7% |
| 2022-10-20 | +100.8% | −7.4% | +102.4% |
| 2022-10-19 | +94.6% | −9.1% | +98.9% |
1,528 overlapping windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 in Adults ≥50 Years With Immunobridging to Adults 18-49 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 With Influenza Vaccine in Adults ≥ 50 Years of Age (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 in Adults ≥50 Years With Prior Pneumococcal Vaccination (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 in Healthy Infants (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.