Issued 2026-09-25 at $56.21 · now $56.21 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PCVX has typically landed between $46.19 and $70.76 — a range of −17.8% to +25.9% from the issuance price $56.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,558 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($56.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PCVX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $56.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $56.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $57.36 (+2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $52.07–$62.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $46.19–$70.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,558 windows spanning 2020-06-12 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −61.7% | −61.7% | +4.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | −61.0% | −62.5% | +1.9% |
| 2025-03-17 | −59.8% | −62.7% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-10-21 | +114.6% | +0.0% | +118.7% |
| 2022-10-20 | +100.8% | −7.4% | +102.4% |
| 2022-10-19 | +94.6% | −9.1% | +98.9% |
1,558 overlapping windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 in Adults ≥50 Years With Immunobridging to Adults 18-49 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 With Influenza Vaccine in Adults ≥ 50 Years of Age (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 in Adults ≥50 Years With Prior Pneumococcal Vaccination (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of VAX-31 in Healthy Infants (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.8%
n=6
Feb
50%
+1.6%
n=6
Mar
17%
−13.7%
n=6
Apr
33%
−1.6%
n=6
May
50%
+4.1%
n=6
Jun
83%
+3.2%
n=6
Jul
43%
−0.0%
n=7
Aug
86%
+13.1%
n=7
Sep
43%
+6.7%
n=7
Oct
33%
+10.5%
n=6
Nov
50%
−2.6%
n=6
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 1,334 @ $59.52 | $79K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 145,435 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 1,381 @ $61.16 | $84K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 152,228 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 1,537 @ $60.89 | $94K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 156,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 924 @ $60.95 | $56K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 155,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 713 @ $61.48 | $44K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 156,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 303 @ $61.42 | $19K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 155,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Dhaliwal Harpreet S. | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $55.00 | $935K | −18.1% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,756 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Sale | 6,956 @ $53.76 | $374K | −6.0% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Sale | 3,044 @ $54.18 | $165K | −2.8% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 1,389 @ $54.09 | $75K | −0.9% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,541 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 861 @ $53.50 | $46K | −0.5% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 11,783 @ $55.52 | $654K | −2.5% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 4,415 @ $55.93 | $247K | −1.0% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 756 @ $55.52 | $42K | −0.6% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 622 @ $55.54 | $35K | −0.5% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 378 @ $55.91 | $21K | −0.3% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 244 @ $55.96 | $14K | −0.2% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Sale | 7,913 @ $57.16 | $452K | −6.9% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,482 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Sale | 2,087 @ $57.76 | $121K | −2.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,395 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 1,788 @ $56.03 | $100K | −1.1% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,222 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 456 @ $57.47 | $26K | −0.3% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,766 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 6 @ $57.82 | $347 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,760 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 9,137 @ $55.27 | $505K | −2.0% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 458,883 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 6,683 @ $54.27 | $363K | −1.4% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 468,020 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 6,417 @ $56.12 | $360K | −1.4% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,466 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 602 @ $55.30 | $33K | −0.4% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,406 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 356 @ $55.23 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,547 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 332 @ $55.99 | $19K | −0.2% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,215 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 312 @ $54.34 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,903 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 207 @ $54.22 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,008 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 191 @ $56.27 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,215 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 22,236 @ $52.50 | $1.2M | −4.5% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 474,703 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $53.00 | $530K | −8.7% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,395 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $52.50 | $53K | −0.7% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,215 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Sale | 225 @ $52.51 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 496,939 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 1,949 @ $49.40 | $96K | −1.2% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 301 @ $50.26 | $15K | −0.2% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 2,250 @ $56.83 | $128K | −1.4% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,744 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-07 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $60.00 | $180K | −9.4% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 1,412 @ $58.14 | $82K | −0.8% of holding | −12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 165,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 838 @ $58.93 | $49K | −0.5% of holding | −12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Sale | 1,487 @ $55.39 | $82K | −4.8% of holding | +7.2% | −6.8% | 29,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Sale | 405 @ $56.26 | $23K | −1.4% of holding | +7.2% | −6.8% | 28,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $58.59 | $146K | −7.5% of holding | +5.1% | −10.3% | 30,867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 4,968 @ $59.16 | $294K | −2.9% of holding | +5.2% | −11.0% | 166,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 2,427 @ $58.32 | $142K | −1.4% of holding | +5.2% | −11.0% | 171,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Dhaliwal Harpreet S. | officer | Sale | 9,743 @ $46.69 | $455K | −28.9% of holding | +22.4% | +12.7% | 23,928 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Sale | 6,716 @ $47.94 | $322K | −31.6% of holding | +11.0% | +11.7% | 14,534 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Sale | 4,907 @ $47.90 | $235K | −18.8% of holding | +11.0% | +11.7% | 21,250 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Eydelman Mikhail | officer | Sale | 2,621 @ $70.39 | $184K | −5.6% of holding | −51.0% | −68.5% | 43,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Eydelman Mikhail | officer | Sale | 2,267 @ $71.07 | $161K | −5.2% of holding | −51.0% | −68.5% | 41,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Eydelman Mikhail | officer | Sale | 112 @ $72.37 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −51.0% | −68.5% | 41,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 5,915 @ $73.07 | $432K | −3.6% of holding | −51.7% | −66.6% | 157,016 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | Wassil Jim | officer | Sale | 2,085 @ $73.84 | $154K | −1.3% of holding | −51.7% | −66.6% | 154,931 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-18 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Sale | 6,182 @ $83.64 | $517K | −5.3% of holding | −0.4% | −66.8% | 111,309 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Sale | 1,818 @ $84.58 | $154K | −1.6% of holding | −0.4% | −66.8% | 109,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Eydelman Mikhail | officer | Sale | 1,784 @ $91.05 | $162K | −5.9% of holding | −15.6% | −71.7% | 28,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Eydelman Mikhail | officer | Sale | 1,755 @ $89.95 | $158K | −5.5% of holding | −15.6% | −71.7% | 30,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Eydelman Mikhail | officer | Sale | 635 @ $89.09 | $57K | −1.9% of holding | −15.6% | −71.7% | 32,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Eydelman Mikhail | officer | Sale | 571 @ $87.77 | $50K | −1.7% of holding | −15.6% | −71.7% | 32,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
199 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Withheld for tax | 17,056 | 429,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Dhaliwal Harpreet S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,651 | 68,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Withheld for tax | 7,155 | 95,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Wassil Jim | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,459 | 146,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,327 | 27,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Jodar Luis | officer | Award / grant | 88,254 | 88,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Jodar Luis | officer | Award / grant | 52,632 | 52,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Withheld for tax | 3,427 | 446,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Withheld for tax | 1,432 | 102,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wassil Jim | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,432 | 153,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Dhaliwal Harpreet S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 659 | 75,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Withheld for tax | 326 | 29,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Option exercise | 2,250 | 158,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Option exercise | 2,250 | 66,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Withheld for tax | 2,862 | 450,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Withheld for tax | 1,273 | 103,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Wassil Jim | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,273 | 156,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Dhaliwal Harpreet S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 361 | 76,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cowan Elvia | officer | Withheld for tax | 243 | 29,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Dhaliwal Harpreet S. | officer | Option exercise | 17,000 | 93,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Dhaliwal Harpreet S. | officer | Option exercise | 17,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 115,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Wassil Jim | officer | Option exercise | 2,250 | 159,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 216,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Wassil Jim | officer | Option exercise | 2,250 | 68,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Option exercise | 16,198 | 469,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Option exercise | 16,198 | 137,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Markels John | director | Award / grant | 23,029 | 23,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 114,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 226,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Option exercise | 516 | 159,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wassil Jim | officer | Option exercise | 516 | 71,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Slaoui Moncef | director | Award / grant | 26,061 | 26,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 114,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Option exercise | 225 | 497,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 236,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | PICKERING GRANT | director | Option exercise | 225 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Paya Carlos V | director | Award / grant | 11,389 | 11,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Paya Carlos V | director | Award / grant | 2,265 | 6,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lukatch Heath | director | Award / grant | 2,265 | 19,481 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.