Issued 2026-09-16 at $147.32 · now $147.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PCTY has typically landed between $123.46 and $172.90 — a range of −16.2% to +17.4% from the issuance price $147.32.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,122 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-03-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($147.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PCTY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $147.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $147.32 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $145.39 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $135.29–$155.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $123.46–$172.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,122 windows spanning 2014-03-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −46.8% | −46.8% | +1.5% |
| 2020-02-19 | −45.3% | −47.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-14 | +54.6% | +0.0% | +58.2% |
| 2022-07-12 | +53.9% | −2.9% | +53.9% |
| 2022-07-18 | +52.8% | +0.0% | +53.1% |
3,122 overlapping windows · 2014-03-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−1.0%
n=12
Feb
50%
+2.0%
n=12
Mar
58%
−1.3%
n=12
Apr
54%
+2.1%
n=13
May
54%
+2.5%
n=13
Jun
46%
+2.6%
n=13
Jul
77%
+7.0%
n=13
Aug
77%
+9.8%
n=13
Sep
38%
−3.6%
n=13
Oct
58%
+4.2%
n=12
Nov
58%
+1.7%
n=12
Dec
33%
−3.7%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 8,460 @ $147.01 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,263,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 4,799 @ $147.86 | $710K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,258,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 1,641 @ $145.96 | $240K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,271,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 100 @ $148.56 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,258,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Sale | 69 @ $152.37 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,202 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 3,885 @ $158.69 | $617K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,448,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 1,210 @ $158.12 | $191K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,452,285 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 5 @ $159.36 | $797 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,448,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 9,965 @ $158.31 | $1.6M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,453,495 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 6,688 @ $157.64 | $1.1M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,463,460 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Conway Craig | director | Sale | 3,145 @ $156.80 | $493K | −58.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,207 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 1,981 @ $156.57 | $310K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,470,148 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 825 @ $155.53 | $128K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,472,129 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Robinson Kenneth B. | director | Sale | 800 @ $158.41 | $127K | −10.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,745 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 441 @ $155.00 | $68K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,472,954 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 2,513 @ $152.81 | $384K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,475,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 2,092 @ $153.42 | $321K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,473,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 1,399 @ $150.63 | $211K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,478,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 635 @ $151.44 | $96K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,478,021 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 21 @ $154.13 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,473,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 8,531 @ $150.20 | $1.3M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,480,063 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Glenn Ryan | officer | Sale | 3,345 @ $149.75 | $501K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 122,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Sale | 2,803 @ $150.02 | $421K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,358 @ $149.58 | $203K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,327 @ $149.22 | $198K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,032 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Sale | 802 @ $150.30 | $121K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Sale | 500 @ $150.71 | $75K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 75,729 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Sale | 245 @ $150.99 | $37K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Sale | 145 @ $147.60 | $21K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Sale | 100 @ $147.60 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 8 @ $151.06 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,480,055 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Rost Nicholas | officer | Sale | 520 @ $148.03 | $77K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 10,569 @ $148.46 | $1.6M | −0.8% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,280,708 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Sale | 9,699 @ $148.53 | $1.4M | −2.7% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 349,172 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 3,031 @ $149.11 | $452K | −0.2% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,277,677 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Sale | 1,301 @ $149.24 | $194K | −0.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 347,871 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $147.23 | $177K | −0.1% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,291,277 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Sale | 900 @ $147.08 | $132K | −0.3% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 358,871 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 301 @ $150.01 | $45K | −0.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,488,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 285 @ $152.29 | $43K | −0.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,488,594 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 156 @ $150.58 | $23K | −0.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,277,521 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Sale | 100 @ $150.76 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 347,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Sale | 44 @ $151.34 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,277,477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 5,659 @ $151.54 | $858K | −0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,492,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 5,299 @ $152.53 | $808K | −0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,487,056 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 4,066 @ $150.63 | $612K | −0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,498,014 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Sale | 118 @ $144.64 | $17K | −100.0% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 83 @ $153.06 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,486,973 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 13,450 @ $150.73 | $2.0M | −0.3% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,521,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 10,219 @ $153.77 | $1.6M | −0.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,505,237 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 5,192 @ $152.91 | $794K | −0.1% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,515,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 2,128 @ $154.92 | $330K | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,503,109 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 1,029 @ $155.81 | $160K | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,502,080 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 954 @ $151.90 | $145K | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,520,648 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 5,824 @ $150.35 | $876K | −0.1% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,540,364 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Sale | 5,312 @ $151.32 | $804K | −0.1% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,535,052 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Sale | 70 @ $116.35 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Glenn Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,034 @ $117.55 | $122K | −1.5% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Rost Nicholas | officer | Sale | 521 @ $115.05 | $60K | −7.2% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Sale | 70 @ $112.48 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | −3.3% | +22.8% | 19,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
150 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 58 | 44,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Williams Toby J. | director | Withheld for tax | 20,462 | 327,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Glenn Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,007 | 125,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Withheld for tax | 4,088 | 1,273,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,780 | 80,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,063 | 46,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | King Melissa Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,537 | 61,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Rost Nicholas | officer | Withheld for tax | 314 | 14,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 3,193 | 3,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Robinson Kenneth B. | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 7,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Award / grant | 25,260 | 25,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Award / grant | 43,036 | 359,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Award / grant | 44,383 | 316,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Williams Toby J. | director | Award / grant | 74,293 | 272,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 4,179 | 4,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 6,943 | 84,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 4,695 | 77,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Scutt Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 29,247 | 72,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Rost Nicholas | officer | Award / grant | 7,981 | 14,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | WATERS RONALD V | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 11,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Reiner Andres | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 30,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Award / grant | 3,469 | 3,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Breard Linda M. | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 5,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Breen Virginia G | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 12,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 22,346 | 39,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 4,695 | 44,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cappotelli Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 4,351 | 48,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Pederson Robin Le | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 9,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Conway Craig | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 5,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Glenn Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 45,586 | 112,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Glenn Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 7,042 | 120,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Glenn Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 11,893 | 131,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Glenn Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 6,513 | 6,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | King Melissa Ann | officer | Award / grant | 24,421 | 52,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | King Melissa Ann | officer | Award / grant | 4,695 | 57,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | King Melissa Ann | officer | Award / grant | 5,372 | 62,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | King Melissa Ann | officer | Award / grant | 3,489 | 3,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sarowitz Steven I | director | Award / grant | 2,207 | 4,489,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Award / grant | 10,201 | 1,279,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Beauchamp Steven R | director | Award / grant | 6,094 | 1,285,248 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.