Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.85 · now $34.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PBT has typically landed between $29.33 and $44.25 — a range of −15.8% to +27.0% from the issuance price $34.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PBT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.55 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.75–$38.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.33–$44.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-22 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +1.6% |
| 2009-01-21 | −42.0% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-23 | −42.0% | −45.6% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-05-10 | +67.6% | −1.3% | +67.6% |
| 2022-05-11 | +63.3% | −2.3% | +66.0% |
| 2022-05-13 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +65.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-03 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $12.80 | $26K | +0.0% of holding | +7.1% | +28.0% | 6,217,107 | Form 4 · filed 19 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 6,483 @ $12.78 | $83K | +0.1% of holding | +4.3% | +24.4% | 6,215,107 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $12.40 | $25K | +0.0% of holding | +4.0% | +24.3% | 6,208,624 | Form 4 · filed 21 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $12.46 | $50K | +0.1% of holding | +5.9% | +27.1% | 6,206,624 | Form 4 · filed 22 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 6,898 @ $12.51 | $86K | +0.1% of holding | +5.9% | +24.9% | 6,202,624 | Form 4 · filed 25 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $12.31 | $25K | +0.0% of holding | +5.9% | +27.7% | 6,195,726 | Form 4 · filed 26 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $12.05 | $48K | +0.1% of holding | +3.3% | +30.1% | 6,193,726 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 7,138 @ $12.10 | $86K | +0.1% of holding | +2.7% | +30.6% | 6,189,726 | Form 4 · filed 28 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 20,165 @ $12.12 | $244K | +0.3% of holding | +0.6% | +26.3% | 6,182,588 | Form 4 · filed 29 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 4,582 @ $11.96 | $55K | +0.1% of holding | +0.1% | +28.8% | 6,139,123 | Form 4 · filed 32 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 11,241 @ $12.11 | $136K | +0.2% of holding | −0.5% | +29.7% | 6,134,541 | Form 4 · filed 34 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $12.08 | $181K | +0.2% of holding | +0.2% | +24.4% | 6,123,300 | Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 22,000 @ $11.62 | $256K | +0.4% of holding | +6.8% | +39.9% | 6,088,000 | Form 4 · filed 40 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Sale | 50 @ $1.05 | $53 | −0.1% of holding | +6.8% | +39.9% | 43,600 | Form 4 · filed 40 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.49 | $57K | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +42.8% | 6,065,000 | Form 4 · filed 41 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Sale | 200 @ $1.02 | $204 | −0.5% of holding | +6.6% | +42.8% | 39,600 | Form 4 · filed 41 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Sale | 20 @ $1.30 | $26 | −0.1% of holding | +9.7% | +53.8% | 19,600 | Form 4 · filed 46 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Sale | 51 @ $1.50 | $77 | −0.3% of holding | +17.7% | +53.9% | 17,600 | Form 4 · filed 47 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.30 | $130 | −0.8% of holding | +17.8% | +52.9% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 48 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Code E | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Code E | 3,965 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Code E | 864 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Code E | 7,723 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Exercise | 23,300 | 6,162,423 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Code E | 2,711 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Exercise | 23 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Exercise | 20,300 | 6,108,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Exercise | 20 | 23,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Exercise | 1,000 | 6,066,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | OLIVER ERIC L | director | Exercise | 10 | 38,600 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.