Issued 2026-09-25 at $31.20 · now $31.20 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PBLS has typically landed between $27.20 and $40.89 — a range of −12.8% to +31.1% from the issuance price $31.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
56 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-06-08 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($31.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PBLS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $31.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $31.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.91 (+15.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.29–$38.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.2–$40.89
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-26 | −20.5% | −20.5% | +6.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | −17.2% | −17.2% | +6.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | −13.3% | −13.3% | +8.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-09 | +52.8% | +0.0% | +58.0% |
| 2026-06-08 | +51.8% | +0.0% | +58.0% |
| 2026-07-20 | +44.1% | +0.0% | +44.1% |
56 overlapping windows · 2026-06-08 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-04-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: FOG-001 in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 47,250 @ $29.77 | $1.4M | +0.2% of holding | +26.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,529,686 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 37,723 @ $30.00 | $1.1M | +0.1% of holding | +34.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,482,436 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 21,696 @ $27.96 | $607K | +0.1% of holding | +34.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,438,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 6,504 @ $29.17 | $190K | +0.0% of holding | +34.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,444,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 98,433 @ $27.13 | $2.7M | +0.4% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,383,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 32,987 @ $27.72 | $914K | +0.1% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,416,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | SEBULSKY ALAN | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $26.00 | $130K | +23.9% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | SEBULSKY ALAN | director | Purchase | 4,065 @ $27.10 | $110K | +15.7% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | SEBULSKY ALAN | director | Purchase | 8,435 @ $27.67 | $233K | +67.5% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,935 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 19,728,353 @ $20.00 | $394.6M | +300.9% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,285,093 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,460,397 @ $20.00 | $29.2M | +122.9% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,648,278 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Levy Guy | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 375,000 @ $20.00 | $7.5M | +57.5% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,027,000 | Form 4 · filed 18 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Levy Guy | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 125,000 @ $20.00 | $2.5M | +23.7% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 652,000 | Form 4 · filed 18 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | SEBULSKY ALAN | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $20.00 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
175 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Tendler Craig | director | Award / grant | 20,294 | 20,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Levy Guy | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 527,070 | 527,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Levy Guy | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 527,070 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FITZGERALD EDWARD M | director | Conversion | 5,539 | 5,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FITZGERALD EDWARD M | director | Conversion | 3,878 | 9,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FITZGERALD EDWARD M | director | Conversion | 5,271 | 14,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FITZGERALD EDWARD M | director | Conversion | 5,332 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FITZGERALD EDWARD M | director | Conversion | 3,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FITZGERALD EDWARD M | director | Conversion | 8,111 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 6,556,740 | 6,556,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,187,881 | 1,187,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 642,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 160,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 9,445,363 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,666,829 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 6,556,740 | 6,556,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,187,881 | 1,187,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 642,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 160,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 9,445,363 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,666,829 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 6,556,740 | 6,556,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,187,881 | 1,187,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 642,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 160,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 9,445,363 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,666,829 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 6,556,740 | 6,556,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,187,881 | 1,187,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 642,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 160,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 9,445,363 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,666,829 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 6,556,740 | 6,556,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,187,881 | 1,187,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 642,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 160,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 9,445,363 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Conversion | 1,666,829 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Flynn James E | director | Conversion | 122,990 | 122,990 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.