Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.31 · now $17.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PBI has typically landed between $14.24 and $21.85 — a range of −17.7% to +26.2% from the issuance price $17.31.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.31 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.6 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.13–$19.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.24–$21.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −51.2% | −51.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −44.6% | −48.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-10 | +176.7% | −2.0% | +176.7% |
| 2020-07-09 | +161.3% | +0.0% | +161.3% |
| 2020-07-13 | +158.1% | +0.0% | +182.3% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+7.6%
n=18
Feb
37%
−2.3%
n=19
Mar
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Apr
47%
+4.3%
n=19
May
42%
−3.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
58%
+3.1%
n=19
Aug
37%
−0.3%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
44%
+1.1%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
44%
−1.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Everett Todd A. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $16.89 | $169K | −10.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 86,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Pfeiffer Deborah | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $17.11 | $342K | −20.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 361 @ $17.42 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,201,016 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 36 @ $17.42 | $627 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 122,754 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 1,747 @ $17.42 | $30K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,201,377 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 173 @ $17.42 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 122,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Everett Todd A. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.07 | $452K | −20.7% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 376,072 @ $18.11 | $6.8M | −18.1% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,703,124 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 37,194 @ $18.11 | $673K | −23.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,963 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 192,450 @ $17.53 | $3.4M | −8.5% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,079,196 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 19,033 @ $17.53 | $334K | −10.6% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,157 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 386,480 @ $18.22 | $7.0M | −14.5% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,276,869 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 38,223 @ $18.22 | $696K | −17.5% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 5,223 @ $18.96 | $99K | −0.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,271,646 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 517 @ $18.96 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 287,815 @ $17.10 | $4.9M | −9.8% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,663,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 28,465 @ $17.10 | $487K | −11.6% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,930 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 50,834 @ $16.91 | $860K | −1.7% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,951,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 5,027 @ $16.91 | $85K | −2.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 246,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 136,500 @ $16.83 | $2.3M | −4.3% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,001,998 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 13,500 @ $16.83 | $227K | −5.1% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,422 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 293,774 @ $17.40 | $5.1M | −8.6% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,138,498 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 29,055 @ $17.40 | $505K | −9.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,922 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 191,893 @ $17.02 | $3.3M | −5.3% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,432,272 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 18,978 @ $17.02 | $323K | −6.1% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 255,816 @ $16.93 | $4.3M | −6.6% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,624,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 25,301 @ $16.93 | $428K | −7.5% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 312,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Pfeiffer Deborah | officer | Sale | 18,750 @ $16.06 | $301K | −16.1% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,828 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 221,984 @ $15.67 | $3.5M | −4.0% of holding | +18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,379,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 21,954 @ $15.67 | $344K | −6.1% of holding | +18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 338,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 36,833 @ $15.62 | $575K | −0.7% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,601,965 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Pfeiffer Deborah | officer | Sale | 23,075 @ $15.48 | $357K | −16.5% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,578 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 3,643 @ $15.62 | $57K | −1.0% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,210 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 354,136 @ $15.69 | $5.6M | −5.9% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,638,798 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 35,025 @ $15.69 | $549K | −8.8% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 363,853 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 543,474 @ $15.59 | $8.5M | −8.3% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,992,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 53,750 @ $15.59 | $838K | −11.9% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 398,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 706,681 @ $14.47 | $10.2M | −9.5% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,709,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 172,890 @ $15.01 | $2.6M | −2.6% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,536,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 69,891 @ $14.47 | $1.0M | −13.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 469,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 17,099 @ $15.01 | $257K | −3.6% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 169 @ $14.25 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 575 @ $12.50 | $7K | −2.0% of holding | +25.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,735 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-17 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 575 @ $12.46 | $7K | −1.9% of holding | +25.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,310 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-17 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 237 @ $12.75 | $3K | −0.8% of holding | +25.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,498 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 651 @ $12.00 | $8K | −2.1% of holding | +24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 693 @ $11.50 | $8K | −2.2% of holding | +30.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,536 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 36,326 @ $11.14 | $405K | −0.5% of holding | +28.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,415,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 3,593 @ $11.14 | $40K | −0.7% of holding | +28.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 539,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 145,863 @ $11.06 | $1.6M | −1.9% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,452,305 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 14,426 @ $11.06 | $160K | −2.6% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 543,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Rosenthal Brent D | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $10.22 | $41K | +80.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 136,500 @ $10.38 | $1.4M | −1.8% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,598,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Sale | 13,500 @ $10.38 | $140K | −2.4% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 557,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 271 @ $10.60 | $3K | −0.9% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Sale | 28,253 @ $10.70 | $302K | −47.5% of holding | +8.8% | +51.9% | 31,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Brimm Peter C | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $10.79 | $43K | +32.0% of holding | +8.8% | +51.9% | 16,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Brimm Peter C | director | Purchase | 100 @ $228.70 | $23K | ownership Δ n/a | +8.8% | +51.9% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Brimm Peter C | director | Sale | 100 @ $217.00 | $22K | −100.0% of holding | +8.8% | +51.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Brimm Peter C | director | Sale | 100 @ $215.00 | $22K | −100.0% of holding | +8.8% | +51.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
164 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | EVANS PAUL J. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,306 | 51,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | EVANS PAUL J. | director | Option exercise | 7,355 | 53,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | EVANS PAUL J. | director | Option exercise | 7,355 | 14,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brimm Peter C | director | Option exercise | 6,922 | 23,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brimm Peter C | director | Option exercise | 6,922 | 24,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Other acquisition | 500,000 | 1,203,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Other acquisition | 478,475 | 1,611,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Williams La Vonda | director | Award / grant | 4,469 | 4,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Williams La Vonda | director | Award / grant | 12,422 | 16,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Rosenthal Brent D | director | Option exercise | 8,755 | 17,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Rosenthal Brent D | director | Option exercise | 8,755 | 24,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Other acquisition | 1,500,000 | 3,879,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Other acquisition | 1,067,507 | 1,132,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | WALKER WAYNE REMELL | director | Award / grant | 18,159 | 30,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Rosenthal Brent D | director | Award / grant | 6,532 | 15,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Rosenthal Brent D | director | Award / grant | 18,159 | 33,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Levene Catherine | director | Award / grant | 6,532 | 6,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Levene Catherine | director | Award / grant | 18,159 | 24,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Brimm Peter C | director | Award / grant | 18,159 | 31,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Brimm Peter C | director | Award / grant | 6,532 | 13,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | WALKER WAYNE REMELL | director | Award / grant | 6,532 | 12,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Option exercise | 10,461 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wolf Kurt James | director | Option exercise | 10,461 | 64,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Levene Catherine | director | Option exercise | 10,461 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Levene Catherine | director | Option exercise | 10,461 | 17,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Everett Todd A. | director | Award / grant | 56,180 | 56,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Pfeiffer Deborah | officer | Award / grant | 27,004 | 27,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | EVANS PAUL J. | director | Award / grant | 56,180 | 56,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Award / grant | 19,663 | 19,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | DEFINA LAUREN THOMAS | officer | Award / grant | 11,470 | 11,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Option exercise | 28,000 | 59,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Option exercise | 28,000 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Pfeiffer Deborah | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,725 | 138,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,929 | 31,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | DEFINA LAUREN THOMAS | officer | Withheld for tax | 520 | 1,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Pfeiffer Deborah | officer | Option exercise | 8,847 | 17,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Option exercise | 6,319 | 34,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Freemen-Bosworth Lauren | officer | Option exercise | 6,319 | 12,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | DEFINA LAUREN THOMAS | officer | Option exercise | 1,659 | 2,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | DEFINA LAUREN THOMAS | officer | Option exercise | 1,659 | 3,317 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2018-07-11 | 2018-06-13 | $1–15K |
| Virginia Foxx | House | sale | 2015-03-09 | 2015-02-02 | $15–50K |
| Virginia Foxx | House | purchase | 2015-01-08 | 2014-12-10 | $15–50K |
| Ms. Virginia Foxx | House | sale | 2014-10-08 | 2014-09-15 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.