Issued 2026-09-16 at $75.93 · now $75.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PBF has typically landed between $59.94 and $102.75 — a range of −21.1% to +35.3% from the issuance price $75.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,438 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-12-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($75.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PBF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $75.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $75.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $78.34 (+3.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $69.4–$87.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.94–$102.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,438 windows spanning 2012-12-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −78.3% | −78.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −75.6% | −76.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −73.9% | −73.9% | +3.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-02-10 | +92.9% | +0.0% | +92.9% |
| 2021-02-01 | +89.6% | +0.0% | +89.6% |
| 2021-02-09 | +89.6% | +0.0% | +89.6% |
3,438 overlapping windows · 2012-12-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
64%
+4.6%
n=14
Feb
50%
+3.0%
n=14
Mar
57%
+2.9%
n=14
Apr
50%
+2.7%
n=14
May
43%
−0.5%
n=14
Jun
43%
+0.4%
n=14
Jul
57%
+1.8%
n=14
Aug
50%
+1.6%
n=14
Sep
64%
+1.8%
n=14
Oct
62%
+5.0%
n=13
Nov
62%
+7.3%
n=13
Dec
46%
−2.3%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 150,000 @ $80.60 | $12.1M | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,716,127 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 175,776 @ $78.16 | $13.7M | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,866,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 140,000 @ $77.30 | $10.8M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,041,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 3,494 @ $77.23 | $270K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,181,903 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 54,484 @ $77.09 | $4.2M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,185,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 45,516 @ $76.94 | $3.5M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,239,881 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Sale | 116,008 @ $73.73 | $8.6M | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 793,737 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Sale | 125,000 @ $74.55 | $9.3M | −13.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 793,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 120,000 @ $74.79 | $9.0M | −0.8% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,285,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $75.05 | $7.5M | −11.2% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 793,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Sale | 169,925 @ $72.65 | $12.3M | −17.6% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 793,737 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Sale | 142,364 @ $73.50 | $10.5M | −22.3% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 495,771 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Canty Trecia M | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $74.10 | $5.6M | −28.1% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,779 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Ho Tai Wendy | officer | Sale | 12,094 @ $73.95 | $894K | −8.6% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,209 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 6,356 @ $74.28 | $472K | −0.0% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,405,397 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 170,000 @ $71.98 | $12.2M | −1.2% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,451,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 40,000 @ $73.00 | $2.9M | −0.3% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,411,753 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 150,000 @ $70.13 | $10.5M | −1.0% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,621,753 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Canty Trecia M | director | Sale | 139,374 @ $71.00 | $9.9M | −42.1% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Davis Paul T | officer | Sale | 63,295 @ $70.40 | $4.5M | −25.7% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Canty Trecia M | director | Sale | 946 @ $71.00 | $67K | −0.5% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Sale | 260,063 @ $67.84 | $17.6M | −24.7% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 793,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 110,375 @ $69.14 | $7.6M | −0.7% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,771,753 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 110,000 @ $68.22 | $7.5M | −0.7% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,822,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Marino Joseph Daniel | officer | Sale | 4,033 @ $69.15 | $279K | −7.6% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,851 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Davis Paul T | officer | Sale | 75,997 @ $65.71 | $5.0M | −29.3% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Sale | 368,139 @ $69.71 | $25.7M | −31.7% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 793,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Sale | 120,000 @ $71.62 | $8.6M | −19.5% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 495,771 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Sale | 105,473 @ $72.25 | $7.6M | −17.5% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 495,771 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $68.94 | $6.9M | −11.2% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 793,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Fedena James E. | officer | Sale | 24,756 @ $71.83 | $1.8M | −17.8% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Ho Tai Wendy | officer | Sale | 16,459 @ $71.94 | $1.2M | −11.3% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Ho Tai Wendy | officer | Sale | 12,500 @ $72.09 | $901K | −8.8% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 131,912 @ $70.06 | $9.2M | −0.9% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,298,216 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 126,088 @ $70.82 | $8.9M | −0.8% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,172,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 70,000 @ $73.34 | $5.1M | −0.5% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,032,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 70,000 @ $72.34 | $5.1M | −0.5% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,102,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 51,000 @ $68.99 | $3.5M | −0.3% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,430,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 40,000 @ $74.01 | $3.0M | −0.3% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,992,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $67.42 | $67K | −0.0% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,481,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 10,000 @ $67.02 | $670K | −0.1% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,482,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 120,000 @ $64.35 | $7.7M | −0.8% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,492,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 100,000 @ $63.50 | $6.4M | −0.6% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,612,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 100,000 @ $54.52 | $5.5M | −0.6% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,712,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 270,000 @ $53.18 | $14.4M | −1.7% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,812,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 380,000 @ $52.29 | $19.9M | −2.3% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,082,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 150,000 @ $49.52 | $7.4M | −0.9% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,462,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 50,000 @ $48.00 | $2.4M | −0.3% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,612,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 200,000 @ $46.94 | $9.4M | −1.2% of holding | +50.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,662,128 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 280,000 @ $46.65 | $13.1M | −1.6% of holding | +61.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,862,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 370,000 @ $46.01 | $17.0M | −2.1% of holding | +38.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,342,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 200,000 @ $47.01 | $9.4M | −1.2% of holding | +38.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,142,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 200,000 @ $42.79 | $8.6M | −1.1% of holding | +39.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,712,128 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 205,570 @ $42.01 | $8.6M | −1.1% of holding | +47.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,912,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 100,000 @ $43.17 | $4.3M | −0.5% of holding | +23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,117,698 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 220,000 @ $43.58 | $9.6M | −1.2% of holding | +15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,217,698 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 31,000 @ $43.56 | $1.4M | −0.2% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,437,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 220,000 @ $45.91 | $10.1M | −1.2% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,468,698 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 170,000 @ $44.75 | $7.6M | −0.9% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,718,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. | other | Sale | 30,000 @ $45.51 | $1.4M | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,688,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
154 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 116,008 | 909,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 116,008 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 125,000 | 918,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 125,000 | 116,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 893,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 241,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Withheld for tax | 42,584 | 526,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 169,925 | 963,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 266,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Option exercise | 72,851 | 568,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Option exercise | 142,364 | 638,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Ho Tai Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 12,094 | 141,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Option exercise | 72,851 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Ho Tai Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 12,094 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 169,925 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Option exercise | 142,364 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 83,147 | 191,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 83,147 | 274,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 83,147 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 139,374 | 331,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Davis Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 63,295 | 246,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 946 | 192,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 139,374 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Canty Trecia M | director | Option exercise | 946 | 83,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Davis Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 63,295 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 260,063 | 1,053,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Marino Joseph Daniel | officer | Option exercise | 4,033 | 52,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Marino Joseph Daniel | officer | Option exercise | 4,033 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 260,063 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Davis Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 75,997 | 259,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Davis Paul T | officer | Option exercise | 75,997 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 368,139 | 1,161,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Option exercise | 105,473 | 601,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lucey Matthew C. | director | Option exercise | 120,000 | 615,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 893,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ho Tai Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 16,459 | 145,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ho Tai Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 141,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 368,139 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nimbley Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.