PAYXPaychex, Inc.Industrials · Staffing & Employment Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $116.72 · now $116.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAYX has typically landed between $105.09 and $129.32 — a range of −10.0% to +10.8% from the issuance price $116.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($116.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PAYX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $116.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$105.09worst · -10.0%$129.32best · +10.8%
  • now $116.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $117.09 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $112.07–$122.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $105.09–$129.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−43.4%−43.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−42.4%−42.4%+0.0%
2020-02-19−35.6%−36.1%+0.1%
3 best
2020-03-23+32.6%+0.0%+33.9%
2009-03-05+29.9%−3.0%+29.9%
2009-03-06+28.5%−2.5%+30.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$40.4B
market cap
$4.88
EPS (TTM)
23.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-29
next earnings
Revenue$6.5B
'21'26
Net income$1.8B
'21'26
Free cash flow$2.3B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr27.0%
'21'26
ROE · by yr47.1%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr1.23
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $116.72$97.55$176.58
  • DCF (intrinsic)$171.13
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$149.59
  • Analyst target · range $103.00–$115.00$109.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$116.72

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
47%
+0.5%
n=19
May
63%
+1.6%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.2%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.1%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.1%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$136$842026-07-20: 1 insider sale, $299K — Schrader Robert L.2026-07-17: 1 insider sale, $303K — Simmons Christopher C2026-07-14: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — MUCCI MARTIN2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $384K — TUCCI JOSEPH M2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $41K — Roaldsen Elizabeth2026-02-04: 2 insider purchases, $197K — DOODY JOSEPH, BONADIO TOM2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $197K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $41K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $384K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $3.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Schrader Robert L. — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Simmons Christopher C — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed same daydirector MUCCI MARTIN — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TUCCI JOSEPH M — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Roaldsen Elizabeth — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DOODY JOSEPH — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BONADIO TOM — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-20Schrader Robert L.directorSale2,600 @ $115.09$299K−12.3% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open18,547Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-17Simmons Christopher CofficerSale2,615 @ $115.92$303K−43.3% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open3,420Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-14MUCCI MARTINdirectorSale25,000 @ $109.93$2.7M−5.3% of holding+7.2%not yet — horizon still open444,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-26TUCCI JOSEPH MdirectorSale3,907 @ $98.25$384K−5.5% of holding+17.4%not yet — horizon still open67,364Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13Roaldsen ElizabethofficerSale459 @ $90.00$41K−4.7% of holding+12.0%not yet — horizon still open9,335Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04DOODY JOSEPHdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $98.76$99Kownership Δ n/a+4.4%+11.0%1,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04BONADIO TOMdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $98.50$98K+4.9% of holding+4.4%+11.0%21,504Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16Gibson John BdirectorSale12,370 @ $141.92$1.8M−13.1% of holding−5.9%−32.4%81,755Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16Schrader Robert L.directorSale3,160 @ $140.63$444K−14.1% of holding−5.9%−32.4%19,281Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16Simmons Christopher CofficerSale1,843 @ $140.98$260K−24.4% of holding−5.9%−32.4%5,723Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-10MUCCI MARTINdirectorSale97,526 @ $145.17$14.2M−17.9% of holding−3.9%−30.8%446,917Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-15VELLI JOSEPH MdirectorSale3,650 @ $149.25$545K−4.4% of holding−4.5%−36.8%78,455Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-03Gioja Michael EofficerSale31,000 @ $154.58$4.8M−67.9% of holding−7.7%−43.0%14,688Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03Gioja Michael EofficerSale653 @ $154.91$101K−4.4% of holding−7.7%−43.0%14,035Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

168 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01GOLISANO B THOMASdirectorGift33437,884Form 4
2026-08-14Simmons Christopher CofficerWithheld for tax1303,290Form 4
2026-07-20DOODY JOSEPHdirectorOther acquisition164725Form 4
2026-07-20DOODY JOSEPHdirectorOther acquisition16423,922Form 4
2026-07-17MUCCI MARTINdirectorGift9,309434,891Form 4
2026-07-15Gibson John BdirectorAward / grant96,97196,971Form 4
2026-07-15Schrader Robert L.directorAward / grant29,55329,553Form 4
2026-07-15BERGSTROM RYAN NORMANofficerAward / grant23,08823,088Form 4
2026-07-15ANTE ADAM BROOKSofficerAward / grant23,08823,088Form 4
2026-07-15Parodi Chad CofficerAward / grant18,47118,471Form 4
2026-07-15Argiropoulos MasonofficerAward / grant14,77714,777Form 4
2026-07-15Gibson John BdirectorWithheld for tax14,08367,048Form 4
2026-07-15Simmons Christopher CofficerAward / grant11,08211,082Form 4
2026-07-15Roaldsen ElizabethofficerWithheld for tax2,3836,952Form 4
2026-07-15Schrader Robert L.directorWithheld for tax2,38216,783Form 4
2026-07-15Simmons Christopher CofficerWithheld for tax1,1724,217Form 4
2026-07-15Argiropoulos MasonofficerWithheld for tax3863,037Form 4
2026-07-15BERGSTROM RYAN NORMANofficerWithheld for tax30341,279Form 4
2026-07-15Parodi Chad CofficerWithheld for tax3006,036Form 4
2026-07-15ANTE ADAM BROOKSofficerWithheld for tax29952,566Form 4
2026-07-15Bhandari Prabha SofficerWithheld for tax2821,664Form 4
2026-07-15Argiropoulos MasonofficerAward / grant2,1825,219Form 4
2026-07-15ANTE ADAM BROOKSofficerAward / grant3,40955,975Form 4
2026-07-15BERGSTROM RYAN NORMANofficerAward / grant3,40944,688Form 4
2026-07-15Gibson John BdirectorAward / grant14,31881,366Form 4
2026-07-15Schrader Robert L.directorAward / grant4,36421,147Form 4
2026-07-15Simmons Christopher CofficerAward / grant1,8186,035Form 4
2026-07-15Parodi Chad CofficerAward / grant2,7278,763Form 4
2026-07-14MUCCI MARTINdirectorWithheld for tax163,329469,200Form 4
2026-07-14MUCCI MARTINdirectorOption exercise214,482632,529Form 4
2026-07-14MUCCI MARTINdirectorOption exercise214,4820Form 4
2026-07-01ANTE ADAM BROOKSofficerWithheld for tax2,67852,865Form 4
2026-07-01BERGSTROM RYAN NORMANofficerWithheld for tax2,09041,582Form 4
2026-06-26TUCCI JOSEPH MdirectorWithheld for tax6,31371,271Form 4
2026-06-26TUCCI JOSEPH MdirectorOption exercise10,22077,584Form 4
2026-06-26TUCCI JOSEPH MdirectorOption exercise10,2200Form 4
2026-06-01GOLISANO B THOMASdirectorGift1,03238,218Form 4
2026-05-08VELLI JOSEPH MdirectorOption exercise10,22089,564Form 4
2026-05-08VELLI JOSEPH MdirectorOption exercise10,2200Form 4
2026-05-06GOLISANO B THOMASdirectorGift109,30035,653,923Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-20$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-12$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-05-062026-04-16$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-05-062026-04-21$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousesale2026-04-152026-04-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-03-102026-02-24$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-03-102026-02-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.