Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.82 · now $11.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAYS has typically landed between $9.02 and $17.07 — a range of −23.7% to +44.4% from the issuance price $11.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,725 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-10-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PAYS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.8 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.1–$13.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.02–$17.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,725 windows spanning 2007-10-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-03-18 | −82.1% | −82.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-12-29 | −81.8% | −81.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-12-30 | −81.8% | −81.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-08-16 | +700.0% | +0.0% | +700.0% |
| 2010-08-13 | +700.0% | +0.0% | +700.0% |
| 2010-08-17 | +680.0% | +0.0% | +700.0% |
4,725 overlapping windows · 2007-10-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
47%
+12.8%
n=19
Feb
47%
+4.8%
n=19
Mar
42%
+11.5%
n=19
Apr
47%
+2.2%
n=19
May
42%
+10.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+7.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+11.6%
n=19
Aug
32%
+21.5%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
+18.5%
n=18
Nov
42%
+4.4%
n=19
Dec
11%
−10.9%
n=19
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Ngo Michael C | officer | Sale | 79,925 @ $12.74 | $1.0M | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,350,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Ngo Michael C | officer | Sale | 70,075 @ $12.85 | $900K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,429,925 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $12.62 | $442K | −6.1% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 542,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $11.88 | $1.8M | −1.6% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,163,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $9.38 | $469K | −0.5% of holding | +36.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,222,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Herman Joan M | director | Sale | 28,000 @ $8.69 | $243K | −4.1% of holding | +47.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 647,105 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Herman Joan M | director | Sale | 31,904 @ $8.60 | $274K | −4.5% of holding | +50.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 675,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Herman Joan M | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $8.01 | $801K | −12.4% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 707,009 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Mina Bruce A | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $7.09 | $71K | −3.7% of holding | +27.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 258,500 | Form 4 · filed 50 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Herman Joan M | director | Sale | 29,202 @ $8.00 | $234K | −3.5% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 807,009 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Mina Bruce A | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $7.10 | $71K | −3.6% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 268,500 | Form 4 · filed 60 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Cunningham Bradley Kramer | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $7.80 | $23K | −0.9% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 348,631 | Form 4 · filed 95 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Cunningham Bradley Kramer | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $7.30 | $73K | −2.8% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 351,631 | Form 4 · filed 98 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Herman Joan M | director | Sale | 22,534 @ $7.01 | $158K | −2.7% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 813,989 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Herman Joan M | director | Sale | 6,667 @ $7.01 | $47K | −0.8% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 831,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Turner Matthew Baker | officer | Sale | 15,057 @ $4.16 | $63K | −3.2% of holding | +2.8% | +140.8% | 454,943 | Form 4 · filed 213 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Strobo Robert | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $5.47 | $109K | −5.8% of holding | −14.1% | +19.2% | 327,290 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 62,158 @ $7.09 | $440K | −0.7% of holding | −28.1% | −56.9% | 8,750,728 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Sale | 30,396 @ $7.09 | $215K | −10.8% of holding | −28.1% | −56.9% | 252,273 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | Strobo Robert | officer | Sale | 26,521 @ $7.09 | $188K | −9.7% of holding | −28.1% | −56.9% | 247,290 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | Lanford Matthew Louis | director | Sale | 26,367 @ $7.09 | $187K | −15.2% of holding | −28.1% | −56.9% | 147,364 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | Herman Joan M | director | Sale | 14,160 @ $7.09 | $100K | −1.7% of holding | −28.1% | −56.9% | 821,583 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | HENRY DANIEL R | director | Purchase | 10,084 @ $4.96 | $50K | +8.4% of holding | +46.6% | −9.1% | 129,884 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $5.00 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | +53.7% | −3.4% | 8,662,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 31,500 @ $5.00 | $158K | −0.4% of holding | +53.6% | −9.9% | 8,670,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 46,500 @ $5.00 | $233K | −0.5% of holding | +52.8% | −11.2% | 8,702,386 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-05 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 19,693 @ $4.51 | $89K | −0.2% of holding | +65.2% | −2.9% | 8,748,886 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 307 @ $4.50 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +71.0% | −1.8% | 8,768,579 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-29 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 168,000 @ $4.51 | $758K | −1.9% of holding | +57.5% | +2.2% | 8,768,886 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | HENRY DANIEL R | director | Purchase | 19,800 @ $3.42 | $68K | +24.8% of holding | +44.3% | +47.3% | 99,800 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Sale | 28,396 @ $2.44 | $69K | −11.5% of holding | −8.0% | +102.6% | 218,669 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.73 | $273K | −1.1% of holding | −5.1% | +92.9% | 8,936,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $2.85 | $34K | −0.1% of holding | −4.5% | +175.9% | 9,036,886 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-22 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 27,000 @ $2.88 | $78K | −0.3% of holding | +3.9% | +194.1% | 9,048,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 61,000 @ $2.89 | $176K | −0.7% of holding | +6.7% | +186.3% | 9,075,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-14 | Topline Capital Management, LLC | other | Sale | 120,000 @ $3.24 | $389K | −2.2% of holding | −21.0% | +129.9% | 5,336,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-14 | Topline Capital Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 120,000 @ $3.24 | $389K | −2.2% of holding | −21.0% | +129.9% | 5,336,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Topline Capital Management, LLC | other | Sale | 154,982 @ $3.06 | $474K | −2.8% of holding | −18.8% | +149.0% | 5,456,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Topline Capital Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 154,982 @ $3.06 | $474K | −2.8% of holding | −18.8% | +149.0% | 5,456,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-31 | Topline Capital Management, LLC | other | Sale | 20,834 @ $3.03 | $63K | −0.4% of holding | −17.9% | +167.0% | 5,611,128 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-31 | Topline Capital Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,834 @ $3.03 | $63K | −0.4% of holding | −17.9% | +167.0% | 5,611,128 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-30 | Topline Capital Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 227,084 @ $3.07 | $697K | −3.9% of holding | −15.7% | +156.9% | 5,631,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Topline Capital Management, LLC | other | Sale | 227,084 @ $3.07 | $697K | −3.9% of holding | −15.7% | +156.9% | 5,631,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | Topline Capital Management, LLC | other | Sale | 231,187 @ $3.31 | $765K | −3.8% of holding | −17.6% | +132.4% | 5,859,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | Topline Capital Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 231,187 @ $3.31 | $765K | −3.8% of holding | −17.6% | +132.4% | 5,859,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 31,000 @ $3.16 | $98K | −0.3% of holding | −0.5% | +52.7% | 9,136,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 28,000 @ $3.22 | $90K | −0.3% of holding | −0.5% | +52.7% | 9,167,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Newcomer Mark | director | Sale | 41,000 @ $3.31 | $136K | −0.4% of holding | −9.2% | +53.9% | 9,195,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-30 | Spence Daniel | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $3.76 | $376K | −1.1% of holding | −0.3% | −39.3% | 8,990,000 | Form 4 · filed 176 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | NEWMAN JEFFREY B | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | NEWMAN JEFFREY B | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Triplett Dennis L | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 290,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Triplett Dennis L | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | HENRY DANIEL R | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | HENRY DANIEL R | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 169,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mina Bruce A | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 278,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mina Bruce A | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcomer Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 59,025 | 9,313,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,506 | 577,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lanford Matthew Louis | director | Withheld for tax | 25,185 | 273,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Strobo Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,184 | 526,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cunningham Bradley Kramer | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,430 | 314,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Herman Joan M | director | Withheld for tax | 13,780 | 669,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Option exercise | 64,000 | 605,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Option exercise | 64,000 | 64,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Herman Joan M | director | Option exercise | 36,000 | 683,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Herman Joan M | director | Option exercise | 36,000 | 36,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lanford Matthew Louis | director | Option exercise | 64,000 | 298,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lanford Matthew Louis | director | Option exercise | 64,000 | 64,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcomer Mark | director | Option exercise | 150,000 | 9,372,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcomer Mark | director | Option exercise | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Strobo Robert | officer | Option exercise | 64,000 | 552,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Strobo Robert | officer | Option exercise | 64,000 | 64,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cunningham Bradley Kramer | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,579 | 337,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Withheld for tax | 44,541 | 541,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strobo Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 39,235 | 354,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strobo Robert | officer | Award / grant | 66,667 | 393,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Turner Matthew Baker | officer | Withheld for tax | 50,681 | 404,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Newcomer Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 78,701 | 9,005,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Newcomer Mark | director | Award / grant | 133,334 | 9,084,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lanford Matthew Louis | director | Withheld for tax | 12,755 | 190,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Cunningham Bradley Kramer | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,369 | 361,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lanford Matthew Louis | director | Award / grant | 22,222 | 202,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Triplett Dennis L | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 270,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | NEWMAN JEFFREY B | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mina Bruce A | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 278,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | HENRY DANIEL R | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 149,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ngo Michael C | officer | Withheld for tax | 38,664 | 461,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Baker Jeffery Bradford | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,055 | 386,218 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.