Issued 2026-09-16 at $227.59 · now $227.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAYC has typically landed between $187.97 and $266.76 — a range of −17.4% to +17.2% from the issuance price $227.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,091 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-04-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($227.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PAYC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $227.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $227.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $224.01 (-1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $207.15–$240.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $187.97–$266.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,091 windows spanning 2014-04-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-10-03 | −42.4% | −42.4% | +6.3% |
| 2020-03-05 | −41.5% | −41.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | −40.5% | −44.2% | +2.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-26 | +73.1% | −2.7% | +73.1% |
| 2026-06-23 | +71.7% | +0.0% | +71.7% |
| 2026-06-29 | +71.5% | −1.2% | +75.8% |
3,091 overlapping windows · 2014-04-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−1.4%
n=12
Feb
58%
+3.9%
n=12
Mar
67%
+1.3%
n=12
Apr
67%
+3.0%
n=12
May
62%
+0.6%
n=13
Jun
54%
+1.9%
n=13
Jul
77%
+5.3%
n=13
Aug
77%
+15.9%
n=13
Sep
38%
−4.3%
n=13
Oct
75%
+4.1%
n=12
Nov
50%
+5.4%
n=12
Dec
25%
−3.2%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Hadlock Terrell Shane | officer | Sale | 241 @ $240.07 | $58K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,911 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hadlock Terrell Shane | officer | Sale | 1,639 @ $237.00 | $388K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 71,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hadlock Terrell Shane | officer | Sale | 938 @ $238.66 | $224K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,152 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Peck Randall | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $140.50 | $351K | −4.3% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Foster Robert D. | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $162.66 | $211K | −8.1% of holding | −4.4% | −25.9% | 14,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Peck Randall | officer | Sale | 1,442 @ $165.50 | $239K | −2.9% of holding | −6.2% | −25.5% | 47,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Peck Randall | officer | Sale | 744 @ $166.52 | $124K | −1.6% of holding | −6.2% | −25.5% | 47,202 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Peck Randall | officer | Sale | 6 @ $166.50 | $999 | −0.0% of holding | −6.2% | −25.5% | 47,946 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 752 @ $223.47 | $168K | −3.0% of holding | −10.7% | −46.6% | 24,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 586 @ $222.54 | $130K | −2.3% of holding | −10.7% | −46.6% | 25,447 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 138 @ $224.82 | $31K | −0.6% of holding | −10.7% | −46.6% | 24,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 24 @ $225.69 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −10.7% | −46.6% | 24,533 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 880 @ $250.16 | $220K | −3.1% of holding | −15.0% | −48.3% | 27,560 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 289 @ $250.75 | $72K | −1.0% of holding | −15.0% | −48.3% | 27,271 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 131 @ $249.03 | $33K | −0.5% of holding | −15.0% | −48.3% | 28,440 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 97 @ $247.88 | $24K | −0.3% of holding | −15.0% | −48.3% | 28,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 65 @ $246.92 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | −15.0% | −48.3% | 28,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 19 @ $253.61 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −15.0% | −48.3% | 27,233 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 19 @ $252.36 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −15.0% | −48.3% | 27,252 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 6,700 @ $265.31 | $1.8M | −0.2% of holding | −16.3% | −52.9% | 3,217,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 100 @ $266.15 | $27K | −0.0% of holding | −16.3% | −52.9% | 3,217,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 23,200 @ $265.20 | $6.2M | −0.7% of holding | −16.7% | −53.0% | 3,224,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Peck Randall | officer | Sale | 890 @ $263.21 | $234K | −1.8% of holding | −16.7% | −53.0% | 49,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 22,469 @ $260.30 | $5.8M | −0.7% of holding | −6.3% | −51.4% | 3,254,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 7,531 @ $261.18 | $2.0M | −0.2% of holding | −6.3% | −51.4% | 3,247,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 22,950 @ $255.26 | $5.9M | −0.7% of holding | −5.6% | −52.8% | 3,280,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 1,550 @ $256.21 | $397K | −0.0% of holding | −5.6% | −52.8% | 3,279,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 1,088 @ $257.49 | $280K | −0.0% of holding | −5.6% | −52.8% | 3,278,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 838 @ $258.92 | $217K | −0.0% of holding | −5.6% | −52.8% | 3,277,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 3,574 @ $255.01 | $911K | −0.1% of holding | −6.2% | −55.2% | 3,303,675 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $250.16 | $7.5M | −0.9% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,307,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 29,638 @ $245.21 | $7.3M | −0.9% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,337,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 16,809 @ $240.74 | $4.0M | −0.5% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,381,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 12,549 @ $241.82 | $3.0M | −0.4% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,368,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 8,664 @ $238.28 | $2.1M | −0.3% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,399,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 7,732 @ $237.52 | $1.8M | −0.2% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,408,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 6,844 @ $236.23 | $1.6M | −0.2% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,416,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 4,392 @ $235.51 | $1.0M | −0.1% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,422,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 1,587 @ $239.37 | $380K | −0.0% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,398,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 782 @ $243.90 | $191K | −0.0% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,367,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 562 @ $246.44 | $138K | −0.0% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,337,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Richison Chad R. | director | Sale | 441 @ $243.08 | $107K | −0.0% of holding | −2.3% | −53.3% | 3,368,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 1,799 @ $200.46 | $361K | −5.7% of holding | +9.2% | −9.8% | 29,934 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 847 @ $201.52 | $171K | −2.8% of holding | +9.2% | −9.8% | 29,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 254 @ $202.24 | $51K | −0.9% of holding | +9.2% | −9.8% | 28,833 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Sale | 100 @ $203.40 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | +9.2% | −9.8% | 28,733 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | WATTS J C JR | director | Sale | 500 @ $218.22 | $109K | −6.1% of holding | +5.5% | −2.4% | 7,730 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Peck Randall | officer | Sale | 3,600 @ $212.19 | $764K | −6.6% of holding | +9.2% | +1.9% | 50,665 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | PETERS FREDERICK C II | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $210.57 | $316K | −9.2% of holding | +9.3% | +1.8% | 14,783 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Boelte Craig E. | director | Gift | 1,000 | 175,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Boelte Craig E. | director | Award / grant | 1,353 | 176,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | KERBER WILLIAM XAVIER III | director | Award / grant | 1,353 | 6,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Richison Chad R. | director | Gift | 12,500 | 2,774,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Richison Chad R. | director | Gift | 12,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hadlock Terrell Shane | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,728 | 72,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Peck Randall | officer | Withheld for tax | 336 | 57,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | DUQUES HENRY C | director | Award / grant | 1,890 | 5,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | WATTS J C JR | director | Award / grant | 1,890 | 10,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PETERS FREDERICK C II | director | Award / grant | 1,890 | 17,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | BINZ JOSEPH LEO | director | Award / grant | 1,890 | 7,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | TURNEY SHAREN J | director | Award / grant | 1,890 | 5,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Hadlock Terrell Shane | officer | Award / grant | 20,950 | 75,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Foster Robert D. | officer | Award / grant | 17,957 | 37,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Richison Chad R. | director | Award / grant | 71,827 | 2,762,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | York Jeffrey D. | officer | Award / grant | 13,967 | 13,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Peck Randall | officer | Award / grant | 9,976 | 58,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Richison Chad R. | director | Withheld for tax | 18,921 | 2,690,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Peck Randall | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,680 | 48,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Foster Robert D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,515 | 19,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Peck Randall | officer | Award / grant | 8,390 | 51,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Richison Chad R. | director | Award / grant | 43,148 | 2,709,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Foster Robert D. | officer | Award / grant | 9,589 | 23,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Richison Chad R. | director | Withheld for tax | 5,199 | 2,666,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Peck Randall | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,697 | 43,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Foster Robert D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 969 | 13,778 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Richison Chad R. | director | Gift | 112 | 1,199 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Richison Chad R. | director | Gift | 112 | 440 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Richison Chad R. | director | Gift | 1,792 | 2,671,566 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Foster Robert D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,092 | 16,047 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Gannon Rachael | officer | Withheld for tax | 56 | 11,638 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Smith Bradley Scott | officer | Gift | 1,200 | 26,033 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | Peck Randall | officer | Withheld for tax | 43 | 50,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-10 | Vickroy Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 342 | 31,913 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-10 | Peck Randall | officer | Withheld for tax | 338 | 50,327 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | TURNEY SHAREN J | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 4,102 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | DUQUES HENRY C | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 4,084 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Vemulapalli Archana | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 1,809 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | WATTS J C JR | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 8,829 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Williams Felicia | director | Award / grant | 1,099 | 3,706 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-10-07 | 2025-09-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2024-06-13 | 2024-05-06 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2024-06-13 | 2024-05-06 | $15–50K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2024-05-15 | 2024-04-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.