PAY · TickerCove

PAYPaymentus Holdings, Inc.Technology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.64 · now $36.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAY has typically landed between $29.06 and $48.65 — a range of −20.7% to +32.8% from the issuance price $36.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,312 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$36.64 · 67% of range

$20.21 low$44.6 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.6%

typical move · IQR 21.6%

−20.7%worst (p90)+32.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $36.64 (+0.0%)
typical $36.42 (-0.6%)
middle 50% $32.47–$40.36
90% range $29.06–$48.65

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,312 windows spanning 2021-05-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-02-10	−40.3%	−40.3%	+2.0%
2022-04-11	−38.9%	−38.9%	+0.0%
2022-04-08	−36.2%	−36.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-02-22	+58.7%	+0.0%	+66.9%
2026-07-06	+58.4%	−0.5%	+58.4%
2024-02-21	+58.0%	−1.5%	+64.4%

1,312 overlapping windows · 2021-05-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

20%

−9.0%

n=5

Feb

20%

−6.8%

n=5

Mar

40%

+7.2%

n=5

Apr

40%

−0.8%

n=5

May

40%

−0.2%

n=5

Jun

67%

+1.2%

n=6

Jul

67%

+5.8%

n=6

Aug

67%

+9.2%

n=6

Sep

33%

−7.1%

n=6

Oct

60%

+3.0%

n=5

Nov

80%

+21.3%

n=5

Dec

40%

−4.4%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-05	Kalra Sanjay	officer	Sale	2,809 @ $40.16	$113K	−0.6% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	505,697	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05	Kalra Sanjay	officer	Sale	100 @ $43.02	$4K	−0.0% of holding	−8.5%	not yet — horizon still open	505,597	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	40,332 @ $39.91	$1.6M	−6.9% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	541,688	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	17,515 @ $43.06	$754K	−3.3% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	509,888	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	9,785 @ $41.99	$411K	−1.8% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	527,403	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Kalra Sanjay	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $40.22	$402K	−1.9% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	523,506	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Kalra Sanjay	officer	Sale	8,800 @ $41.53	$365K	−1.7% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	514,706	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	7,868 @ $38.74	$305K	−1.3% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	582,020	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Kalra Sanjay	officer	Sale	6,200 @ $42.36	$263K	−1.2% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	508,506	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	4,500 @ $40.88	$184K	−0.8% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	537,188	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-29	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	40,000 @ $35.12	$1.4M	−6.4% of holding	−8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	589,888	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	39,000 @ $33.11	$1.3M	−5.8% of holding	+12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	630,888	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28	Trainor Gary	director	Sale	1,000 @ $33.50	$34K	−0.2% of holding	+12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	629,888	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16	Kalra Sanjay	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $40.02	$1.0M	−5.0% of holding	−14.7%	−16.9%	479,532	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-15	OBEROI ARUN	director	Sale	4,415 @ $38.06	$168K	−13.2% of holding	−15.3%	−17.2%	28,907	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12	INGRAM WILLIAM	director	Sale	11,409 @ $38.01	$434K	−13.4% of holding	−10.9%	−18.6%	73,963	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-14	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Purchase	1,415,984 @ $19.00	$26.9M	+133.8% of holding	−1.7%	−9.7%	2,474,417	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1,415,984 @ $19.00	$26.9M	+133.8% of holding	−1.7%	−9.7%	2,474,417	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Palumbo Robert	director	Purchase	1,415,984 @ $19.00	$26.9M	+133.8% of holding	−1.7%	−9.7%	2,474,417	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-12	DAVIDS JODY R	director	Sale	8,400 @ $28.67	$241K	−18.4% of holding	−2.7%	−4.7%	37,352	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12	DAVIDS JODY R	director	Sale	4,584 @ $29.89	$137K	−12.3% of holding	−2.7%	−4.7%	32,768	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

279 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	Klein Jason	director	Other acquisition	546	1,496	Form 4
2026-08-26	Williams Gregory Hyde	director	Other acquisition	22,558	188,384	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	600,000	2,489,787	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	607,024	100	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	416,038	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	9,736,723	146,020	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	94,546	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	416,038	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	600,000	2,489,787	Form 4
2026-08-26	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	607,024	100	Form 4
2026-08-26	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	9,736,723	146,020	Form 4
2026-08-26	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	94,546	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	607,024	100	Form 4
2026-08-26	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	9,736,723	146,020	Form 4
2026-08-26	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	94,546	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	600,000	2,489,787	Form 4
2026-08-26	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	416,038	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Klein Jason	director	Other acquisition	400,022	2,899,940	Form 4
2026-08-17	Klein Jason	director	Other acquisition	328,915	2,499,918	Form 4
2026-08-17	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	3,168	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	7,909,574	9,882,743	Form 4
2026-08-17	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	395,930	607,124	Form 4
2026-08-17	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	332,973	416,038	Form 4
2026-08-17	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	25,100	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	295,905	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Palumbo Robert	director	Other acquisition	3,000,000	1,206,671	Form 4
2026-08-17	Williams Gregory Hyde	director	Other acquisition	33,145	165,826	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	37,350	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	3,168	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	7,909,574	9,882,743	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	395,930	607,124	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	332,973	416,038	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	25,100	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	295,905	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Accel-KKR Holdings GP, LLC	director	Other acquisition	3,000,000	1,206,671	Form 4
2026-08-17	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	37,350	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	3,168	0	Form 4
2026-08-17	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	7,909,574	9,882,743	Form 4
2026-08-17	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	395,930	607,124	Form 4
2026-08-17	Barnds Thomas	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	332,973	416,038	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i