PATKPatrick Industries, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliancesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.41 · now $70.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PATK has typically landed between $59.99 and $82.82 — a range of −14.8% to +17.6% from the issuance price $70.41.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PATK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$59.99worst · -14.8%$82.82best · +17.6%
  • now $70.41 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.16 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.61–$76.71
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.99–$82.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−75.1%−75.1%+6.2%
2008-11-05−74.0%−75.0%+0.2%
2008-09-15−71.7%−76.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-06-03+306.7%+0.0%+306.7%
2009-06-04+239.3%−1.8%+278.6%
2009-06-15+219.8%+0.0%+285.5%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+5.2%
n=20
Feb
55%
+3.6%
n=20
Mar
60%
+5.0%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.9%
n=20
May
45%
+1.5%
n=20
Jun
55%
+11.3%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.3%
n=20
Aug
50%
+3.2%
n=20
Sep
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Oct
55%
−5.1%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
65%
+3.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$144$702026-06-10: 1 insider purchase, $8K — WELCH M SCOTT2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $9K — WELCH M SCOTT2026-05-06: 1 insider purchase, $124K — Petkovich Jacob R2026-05-05: 6 insider purchases, $2.4M — WELCH M SCOTT, NEMETH ANDY L, Roeder Charles R, Filer Matthew S …2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Gonzalez Hugo E2026-03-12: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — WELCH M SCOTT2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $6K — WELCH M SCOTT2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $7K — WELCH M SCOTT2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $375K — Duthie Joel D2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $568K — Amundson Stacey L2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $381K — Forbes John A2026-02-06: 1 insider purchase, $140K — Filer Matthew S2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — NEMETH ANDY L2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $515K — Kitson Michael A2025-08-13: 4 insider sales, $7.6M — Rodino Jeff, Ellis Kip B, NEMETH ANDY L …2025-08: 5 open-market sales, $8.1M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $2.9M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $147K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $1.1M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.5M2026-05: 8 open-market purchases, $2.5M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $8K↑ buys↓ salesdirector WELCH M SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELCH M SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Petkovich Jacob R — Purchase on 2026-05-06, filed 49 days after the tradedirector WELCH M SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector NEMETH ANDY L — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Roeder Charles R — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeother Filer Matthew S — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Augsburger Blake — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELCH M SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gonzalez Hugo E — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WELCH M SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed same daydirector WELCH M SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WELCH M SCOTT — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same dayofficer Duthie Joel D — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Amundson Stacey L — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Forbes John A — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeother Filer Matthew S — Purchase on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector NEMETH ANDY L — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kitson Michael A — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Rodino Jeff — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellis Kip B — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NEMETH ANDY L — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector NEMETH ANDY L — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-10WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase100 @ $83.85$8K+3.0% of holding−3.8%not yet — horizon still open3,392Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase100 @ $89.44$9K+3.1% of holding−3.1%not yet — horizon still open3,292Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06Petkovich Jacob RofficerPurchase1,300 @ $95.57$124K+2.9% of holding−11.3%not yet — horizon still open46,290Form 4 · filed 49 days after the trade
2026-05-05WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $88.22$882K+6.8% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open156,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05NEMETH ANDY LdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $88.00$880K+3.6% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open287,745Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Roeder Charles RofficerPurchase5,750 @ $87.83$505K+15.8% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open42,147Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Filer Matthew SotherPurchase1,000 @ $85.50$86K+4.9% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open21,614Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Augsburger BlakedirectorPurchase400 @ $85.19$34K+23.2% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open2,125Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase50 @ $88.41$4K+1.6% of holding−8.6%not yet — horizon still open3,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Gonzalez Hugo EofficerSale13,514 @ $113.10$1.5M−28.5% of holding−4.3%−50.1%33,864Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $113.68$1.1M+7.4% of holding−4.3%−50.1%146,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase50 @ $116.40$6K+1.6% of holding−2.0%−43.2%3,142Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase60 @ $122.75$7K+2.0% of holding−7.0%−45.0%3,092Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Duthie Joel DofficerSale2,660 @ $141.03$375K−7.5% of holding−16.0%−52.5%33,018Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12Amundson Stacey LofficerSale3,903 @ $145.61$568K−23.3% of holding−16.7%−53.1%12,819Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Forbes John AdirectorSale2,704 @ $140.75$381K−5.2% of holding−15.6%−51.3%49,272Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-06Filer Matthew SotherPurchase1,000 @ $139.91$140K+5.1% of holding−15.6%−51.3%20,614Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-16NEMETH ANDY LdirectorSale25,000 @ $115.00$2.9M−7.7% of holding+10.4%−33.5%301,641Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19Kitson Michael AdirectorSale4,572 @ $112.67$515K−27.8% of holding−7.6%+14.2%11,850Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-13Rodino JeffofficerSale22,389 @ $110.32$2.5M−9.8% of holding−4.8%+18.6%206,492Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13Ellis Kip BofficerSale21,452 @ $110.01$2.4M−14.6% of holding−4.8%+18.6%125,379Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13NEMETH ANDY LdirectorSale20,000 @ $110.00$2.2M−5.7% of holding−4.8%+18.6%333,641Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13NEMETH ANDY LdirectorSale5,000 @ $113.39$567K−1.5% of holding−4.8%+18.6%328,641Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-13Forbes John AdirectorSale2,875 @ $91.62$263K−5.2% of holding+3.3%+14.0%52,591Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-03Cleveland Todd MdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $82.75$83K+0.8% of holding+9.2%+12.4%133,286Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Cleveland Todd MdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $82.55$165K+1.5% of holding+15.0%+14.9%132,286Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase71 @ $82.59$6K+2.4% of holding+15.0%+14.9%3,032Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Cleveland Todd MdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $87.49$437K+4.0% of holding+2.2%−1.1%130,286Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15Cleveland Todd MdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $85.80$515K+5.0% of holding+2.0%+2.9%125,286Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $84.63$212K+542.3% of holding−0.5%+13.7%2,961Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11WELCH M SCOTTdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $86.22$862K+7.9% of holding−3.3%+14.1%136,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Amundson Stacey LofficerSale2,885 @ $85.53$247K−13.8% of holding−3.3%+14.1%18,044Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-11Mayes Derrick BdirectorSale1,820 @ $93.27$170K−14.7% of holding−1.8%+15.7%10,549Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-07Duthie Joel DofficerSale7,300 @ $95.17$695K−15.6% of holding−2.3%+3.2%39,548Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-09Duthie Joel DofficerSale718 @ $137.11$98K−2.2% of holding−4.9%+2.5%31,459Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-28Rodino JeffofficerGift500194,404Form 4
2026-05-14Suggs Denis GdirectorAward / grant1,59420,338Form 4
2026-05-14Brown Natalie AdirectorAward / grant1,5943,319Form 4
2026-05-14Forbes John AdirectorAward / grant1,59450,866Form 4
2026-05-14Cerulli Joseph MdirectorAward / grant1,59474,722Form 4
2026-05-14Cleveland Todd MdirectorAward / grant1,594134,880Form 4
2026-05-14Kitson Michael AdirectorAward / grant1,59413,444Form 4
2026-05-14WELCH M SCOTTdirectorAward / grant1,59433,366Form 4
2026-05-14Augsburger BlakedirectorAward / grant1,5943,719Form 4
2026-01-27NEMETH ANDY LdirectorWithheld for tax16,630239,263Form 4
2026-01-27Rodino JeffofficerWithheld for tax7,377180,666Form 4
2026-01-27Duthie Joel DofficerWithheld for tax2,57729,521Form 4
2026-01-27Gonzalez Hugo EofficerWithheld for tax1,94738,142Form 4
2026-01-27Amundson Stacey LofficerWithheld for tax1,16212,681Form 4
2026-01-27Roeder Charles RofficerWithheld for tax1,04127,931Form 4
2026-01-27Filer Matthew SotherWithheld for tax88912,687Form 4
2026-01-27Gonzalez Hugo EofficerAward / grant1,84739,989Form 4
2026-01-27Duthie Joel DofficerOther acquisition6,39732,098Form 4
2026-01-27Duthie Joel DofficerAward / grant1,23130,752Form 4
2026-01-27Duthie Joel DofficerAward / grant4,92635,678Form 4
2026-01-27NEMETH ANDY LdirectorOther acquisition38,383255,893Form 4
2026-01-27NEMETH ANDY LdirectorAward / grant7,696246,959Form 4
2026-01-27NEMETH ANDY LdirectorAward / grant30,786277,745Form 4
2026-01-27Amundson Stacey LofficerOther acquisition3,83913,843Form 4
2026-01-27Amundson Stacey LofficerAward / grant80813,489Form 4
2026-01-27Rodino JeffofficerOther acquisition16,312188,043Form 4
2026-01-27Rodino JeffofficerAward / grant2,847183,513Form 4
2026-01-27Rodino JeffofficerAward / grant11,391194,904Form 4
2026-01-27Filer Matthew SotherAward / grant1,38514,072Form 4
2026-01-27Gonzalez Hugo EofficerOther acquisition1,35040,089Form 4
2026-01-27Gonzalez Hugo EofficerAward / grant7,38947,378Form 4
2026-01-27Roeder Charles RofficerOther acquisition81028,972Form 4
2026-01-27Roeder Charles RofficerAward / grant1,69329,624Form 4
2026-01-27Roeder Charles RofficerAward / grant6,77336,397Form 4
2026-01-27Amundson Stacey LofficerAward / grant3,23316,722Form 4
2026-01-27Petkovich Jacob RofficerAward / grant1,46239,140Form 4
2026-01-27Petkovich Jacob RofficerAward / grant5,85044,990Form 4
2026-01-27Filer Matthew SotherOther acquisition94513,576Form 4
2026-01-27Filer Matthew SotherAward / grant5,54219,614Form 4
2026-01-26NEMETH ANDY LdirectorWithheld for tax5,365294,276Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.