Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.63 · now $13.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PATH has typically landed between $10.37 and $17.54 — a range of −23.9% to +28.7% from the issuance price $13.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,337 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PATH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.39 (-1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.99–$14.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.37–$17.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,337 windows spanning 2021-04-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-17 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | −44.4% | −44.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-20 | −44.0% | −44.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-01 | +61.3% | +0.0% | +61.3% |
| 2026-07-23 | +60.7% | +0.0% | +63.5% |
| 2025-09-10 | +59.4% | −1.8% | +59.4% |
1,337 overlapping windows · 2021-04-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Feb
20%
−6.7%
n=5
Mar
40%
−7.4%
n=5
Apr
20%
−9.0%
n=5
May
67%
+3.9%
n=6
Jun
33%
−3.9%
n=6
Jul
50%
+1.2%
n=6
Aug
50%
+4.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−6.5%
n=6
Oct
40%
+0.3%
n=5
Nov
40%
+4.8%
n=5
Dec
60%
+4.9%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Sale | 117,339 @ $13.85 | $1.6M | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,037,377 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 1,402,347 @ $16.07 | $22.5M | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,491,238 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $16.75 | $419K | −9.6% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,052 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $16.50 | $413K | −8.8% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.01 | $676K | −0.2% of holding | −33.4% | −25.8% | 27,893,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-23 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.23 | $686K | −0.2% of holding | −31.5% | −29.3% | 27,938,585 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.02 | $676K | −0.2% of holding | −31.9% | −36.3% | 27,983,585 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.38 | $692K | −0.2% of holding | −24.7% | −25.6% | 28,028,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.68 | $706K | −0.2% of holding | −25.1% | −29.2% | 28,073,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-13 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $17.18 | $773K | −0.2% of holding | −28.2% | −33.5% | 28,118,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-12 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.61 | $747K | −0.2% of holding | −31.7% | −39.8% | 28,163,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-09 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $17.17 | $773K | −0.2% of holding | −20.4% | −35.7% | 28,208,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $17.49 | $787K | −0.2% of holding | −23.6% | −39.0% | 28,253,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $17.32 | $779K | −0.2% of holding | −27.9% | −44.6% | 28,298,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.99 | $720K | −0.2% of holding | −28.2% | −41.1% | 28,343,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Sale | 67,468 @ $16.10 | $1.1M | −10.8% of holding | −22.9% | −37.7% | 557,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.73 | $708K | −0.2% of holding | −22.9% | −37.7% | 28,388,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.38 | $737K | −0.2% of holding | −24.4% | −36.7% | 28,433,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-31 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.55 | $745K | −0.2% of holding | −25.5% | −38.6% | 28,478,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-30 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.82 | $757K | −0.2% of holding | −25.2% | −38.8% | 28,523,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.44 | $740K | −0.2% of holding | −22.3% | −40.4% | 28,568,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-26 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.90 | $761K | −0.2% of holding | −17.0% | −44.2% | 28,613,585 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.91 | $761K | −0.2% of holding | −17.1% | −45.7% | 28,658,585 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.49 | $742K | −0.2% of holding | −7.3% | −40.5% | 28,703,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.49 | $742K | −0.2% of holding | −12.0% | −48.3% | 28,748,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.07 | $723K | −0.2% of holding | −7.3% | −44.3% | 28,793,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-18 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.23 | $730K | −0.2% of holding | −12.5% | −45.6% | 28,838,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.11 | $725K | −0.2% of holding | −11.2% | −48.1% | 28,883,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.26 | $732K | −0.2% of holding | −13.1% | −47.1% | 28,928,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $17.30 | $778K | −0.2% of holding | −10.5% | −46.2% | 28,973,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $17.91 | $806K | −0.2% of holding | −13.3% | −50.3% | 29,018,585 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $18.56 | $835K | −0.2% of holding | −12.4% | −50.3% | 29,063,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $18.61 | $837K | −0.2% of holding | −9.2% | −52.0% | 29,108,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $19.13 | $861K | −0.2% of holding | −15.9% | −52.5% | 29,153,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $19.21 | $865K | −0.2% of holding | −13.7% | −51.0% | 29,198,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $18.20 | $819K | −0.2% of holding | −5.3% | −50.5% | 29,243,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Sale | 27,580 @ $18.55 | $512K | −4.2% of holding | −5.3% | −50.5% | 635,359 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.07 | $678K | −0.2% of holding | +27.1% | −35.3% | 29,288,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.02 | $676K | −0.2% of holding | +28.1% | −32.4% | 29,333,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.23 | $730K | −0.2% of holding | −6.4% | −41.8% | 29,378,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-31 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.72 | $707K | −0.2% of holding | −9.8% | −39.3% | 29,423,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-30 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.73 | $708K | −0.2% of holding | −11.1% | −38.0% | 29,468,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-29 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.29 | $733K | −0.2% of holding | −13.9% | −39.6% | 29,513,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-28 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $17.16 | $772K | −0.2% of holding | −14.8% | −41.5% | 29,558,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $16.73 | $753K | −0.2% of holding | −20.2% | −44.7% | 29,603,585 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.46 | $696K | −0.2% of holding | −18.0% | −41.6% | 29,648,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-23 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.19 | $683K | −0.2% of holding | −13.8% | −39.3% | 29,693,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-22 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.53 | $699K | −0.2% of holding | −13.0% | −38.5% | 29,738,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-22 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $15.47 | $77K | −2.7% of holding | −13.0% | −38.5% | 182,776 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-21 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.57 | $701K | −0.2% of holding | −15.9% | −44.2% | 29,783,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-21 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.68 | $157K | −4.9% of holding | −15.9% | −44.2% | 192,776 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-20 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.71 | $707K | −0.2% of holding | −12.1% | −38.2% | 29,828,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-20 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.65 | $157K | −4.7% of holding | −12.1% | −38.2% | 202,776 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $15.62 | $703K | −0.2% of holding | −12.6% | −36.8% | 29,873,585 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-17 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.73 | $157K | −4.5% of holding | −12.6% | −36.8% | 212,776 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-16 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 122,734 @ $17.21 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | −13.6% | −41.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-16 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 8,300 @ $16.22 | $135K | −3.6% of holding | −13.6% | −41.6% | 224,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-16 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $16.99 | $29K | −0.8% of holding | −13.6% | −41.6% | 222,776 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-15 | Dines Daniel | director | Sale | 122,734 @ $16.92 | $2.1M | −50.0% of holding | −16.6% | −45.0% | 122,734 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-15 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Sale | 27,580 @ $16.68 | $460K | −4.0% of holding | −16.6% | −45.0% | 662,939 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Dines Daniel | director | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 59,690,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Dines Daniel | director | Other acquisition | 5,000,000 | 31,491,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Dines Daniel | director | Other acquisition | 5,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Dines Daniel | director | Conversion | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Award / grant | 525,000 | 890,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Bagli Yazdi Framroz | director | Award / grant | 34,582 | 34,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 1,128,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Award / grant | 1,125,000 | 2,154,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Malpani Raghavendra | officer | Award / grant | 1,125,000 | 1,721,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Award / grant | 130,368 | 365,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,526 | 1,029,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Malpani Raghavendra | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,837 | 596,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,808 | 828,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,266 | 1,060,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,657 | 285,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,657 | 285,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,211 | 843,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Malpani Raghavendra | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,095 | 621,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,323 | 292,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,323 | 292,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Gordon Michael Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 19,175 | 194,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Botteri Philippe | director | Award / grant | 19,175 | 3,180,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Springer Daniel D. | director | Award / grant | 19,175 | 154,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Terrell Karenann K | director | Award / grant | 19,175 | 100,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Wong Rich | director | Award / grant | 19,175 | 89,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 19,175 | 78,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Withheld for tax | 49,063 | 796,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,526 | 765,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,442 | 692,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Malpani Raghavendra | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,836 | 464,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,842 | 722,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,974 | 170,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Malpani Raghavendra | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,378 | 490,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,289 | 188,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ramani Hitesh | officer | Award / grant | 123,466 | 294,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gupta Ashim | officer | Award / grant | 306,748 | 1,072,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brubaker Brad | officer | Award / grant | 157,208 | 849,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Malpani Raghavendra | officer | Award / grant | 159,125 | 624,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Dines Daniel | director | Other acquisition | 9,615,297 | 27,893,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Dines Daniel | director | Other acquisition | 9,615,297 | 37,508,882 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.