PARR · TickerCove

PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $84.90 · now $84.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PARR has typically landed between $68.58 and $110.11 — a range of −19.2% to +29.7% from the issuance price $84.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,502 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-09-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($84.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$84.9 · 98% of range

$33.28 low$86.03 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 22.7%

−19.2%worst (p90)+29.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PARR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $84.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $84.9 (+0.0%)
typical $86.3 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $76.68–$95.92
90% range $68.58–$110.11

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,502 windows spanning 2012-09-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−69.9%	−69.9%	+1.3%
2020-02-14	−67.9%	−67.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−64.5%	−64.5%	+2.3%
3 best
2012-09-07	+400.0%	+0.0%	+559.1%
2012-09-10	+323.1%	+0.0%	+457.7%
2012-09-12	+288.5%	+0.0%	+457.7%

3,502 overlapping windows · 2012-09-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

57%

+1.1%

n=14

Feb

43%

−0.7%

n=14

Mar

57%

+1.7%

n=14

Apr

64%

+3.4%

n=14

May

43%

+0.1%

n=14

Jun

57%

+3.5%

n=14

Jul

57%

+6.5%

n=14

Aug

50%

+1.3%

n=14

Sep

64%

−0.8%

n=14

Oct

43%

+4.0%

n=14

Nov

57%

+7.6%

n=14

Dec

43%

+0.3%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Pitkin Terrill	officer	Sale	3,815 @ $84.50	$322K	−10.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	31,298	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10	Clossey Timothy	director	Sale	10,970 @ $84.00	$921K	−17.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	51,526	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-03	Monteleone William	director	Sale	26,801 @ $83.00	$2.2M	−5.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	457,167	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Monteleone William	director	Sale	40,000 @ $81.30	$3.3M	−8.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	457,167	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	PATE WILLIAM	director	Sale	41,811 @ $80.44	$3.4M	−9.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	410,110	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	PATE WILLIAM	director	Sale	21,006 @ $80.97	$1.7M	−4.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	451,921	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	PATE WILLIAM	director	Sale	6,035 @ $82.17	$496K	−1.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	472,927	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	PATE WILLIAM	director	Sale	20,648 @ $82.32	$1.7M	−4.1% of holding	+5.9%	not yet — horizon still open	478,962	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Clossey Timothy	director	Sale	5,421 @ $83.02	$450K	−8.0% of holding	+5.9%	not yet — horizon still open	62,496	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	Guerra Ivan Daniel	officer	Sale	2,133 @ $82.37	$176K	−16.3% of holding	+5.9%	not yet — horizon still open	10,956	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Clossey Timothy	director	Sale	8,015 @ $81.50	$653K	−10.6% of holding	+6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	67,917	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Mattiussi Danielle	officer	Sale	3,278 @ $67.29	$221K	−10.5% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	27,878	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-06	Creamer Richard	officer	Sale	14,139 @ $67.67	$957K	−24.8% of holding	+17.7%	not yet — horizon still open	42,954	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Monteleone William	director	Sale	60,291 @ $53.58	$3.2M	−11.7% of holding	+12.2%	+43.6%	457,167	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Monteleone William	director	Sale	40,000 @ $54.85	$2.2M	−7.9% of holding	+12.2%	+43.6%	465,824	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Monteleone William	director	Sale	8,657 @ $53.73	$465K	−1.9% of holding	+12.2%	+43.6%	457,167	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Flores Shawn David	officer	Sale	7,167 @ $54.04	$387K	−16.5% of holding	+12.2%	+43.6%	36,215	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13	Clossey Timothy	director	Sale	6,103 @ $54.06	$330K	−7.5% of holding	+12.4%	+36.3%	75,077	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Pitkin Terrill	officer	Sale	11,824 @ $51.22	$606K	−25.3% of holding	+32.7%	+50.0%	34,901	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	Clossey Timothy	director	Sale	4,219 @ $45.70	$193K	−4.9% of holding	+40.9%	+61.1%	81,180	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27	Hollis Jeffrey Ryan	officer	Sale	15,350 @ $41.62	$639K	−43.7% of holding	+57.4%	+72.0%	19,769	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27	Creamer Richard	officer	Sale	14,500 @ $42.71	$619K	−19.9% of holding	+57.4%	+72.0%	58,469	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27	Flores Shawn David	officer	Sale	8,190 @ $42.75	$350K	−15.9% of holding	+57.4%	+72.0%	43,382	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27	Guerra Ivan Daniel	officer	Sale	4,500 @ $42.64	$192K	−25.6% of holding	+57.4%	+72.0%	13,089	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21	Monteleone William	director	Sale	65,659 @ $42.78	$2.8M	−12.6% of holding	−24.8%	+13.0%	456,647	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21	Monteleone William	director	Sale	33,625 @ $43.87	$1.5M	−7.4% of holding	−24.8%	+13.0%	423,022	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06	Creamer Richard	officer	Sale	15,848 @ $41.22	$653K	−22.5% of holding	+3.9%	+47.4%	54,654	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15	Clossey Timothy	director	Sale	2,000 @ $33.37	$67K	−2.3% of holding	+7.7%	+56.5%	84,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02	Flores Shawn David	officer	Sale	8,062 @ $34.50	$278K	−17.1% of holding	−6.0%	+32.8%	39,089	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02	Guerra Ivan Daniel	officer	Sale	5,500 @ $35.11	$193K	−23.9% of holding	−6.0%	+32.8%	17,491	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02	Hollis Jeffrey Ryan	officer	Sale	5,228 @ $34.55	$181K	−17.5% of holding	−6.0%	+32.8%	24,679	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-14	Pitkin Terrill	officer	Sale	5,164 @ $27.97	$144K	−11.1% of holding	+15.8%	+45.6%	41,223	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-16	Monteleone William	director	Sale	26,507 @ $15.81	$419K	−6.9% of holding	+18.9%	+82.2%	357,374	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12	PATE WILLIAM	director	Sale	67,700 @ $16.22	$1.1M	−11.4% of holding	+15.6%	+71.6%	524,610	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

206 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	26,801	483,968	Form 4
2026-09-03	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	26,801	0	Form 4
2026-09-02	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	40,000	497,167	Form 4
2026-09-02	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	40,000	26,801	Form 4
2026-07-05	ANASTASIO CURT	director	Other acquisition	507	111,227	Form 4
2026-07-05	ANASTASIO CURT	director	Award / grant	470	111,697	Form 4
2026-07-05	Clossey Timothy	director	Award / grant	470	75,932	Form 4
2026-07-05	Hatcher Katherine	director	Award / grant	470	40,415	Form 4
2026-07-05	Davidson Phillip S	director	Other acquisition	461	9,465	Form 4
2026-07-05	SILBERMAN ROBERT S	director	Award / grant	1,026	1,026	Form 4
2026-07-05	ANASTASIO CURT	director	Option exercise	507	507	Form 4
2026-07-05	Davidson Phillip S	director	Award / grant	470	470	Form 4
2026-07-05	Davidson Phillip S	director	Option exercise	461	461	Form 4
2026-07-05	Martinez Patricia	director	Award / grant	470	470	Form 4
2026-07-05	PATE WILLIAM	director	Award / grant	470	470	Form 4
2026-07-05	YEAMAN ERIC K	director	Award / grant	470	470	Form 4
2026-07-05	Zell Aaron	director	Award / grant	470	470	Form 4
2026-06-30	Creamer Richard	officer	Award / grant	314	57,093	Form 4
2026-06-30	Pitkin Terrill	officer	Award / grant	212	35,113	Form 4
2026-04-25	Creamer Richard	officer	Withheld for tax	1,690	56,779	Form 4
2026-04-05	Davidson Phillip S	director	Other acquisition	440	9,004	Form 4
2026-04-05	Hatcher Katherine	director	Award / grant	385	39,945	Form 4
2026-04-05	Clossey Timothy	director	Award / grant	385	75,462	Form 4
2026-04-05	ANASTASIO CURT	director	Award / grant	385	110,720	Form 4
2026-04-05	ANASTASIO CURT	director	Other acquisition	317	110,335	Form 4
2026-04-05	Martinez Patricia	director	Award / grant	385	385	Form 4
2026-04-05	YEAMAN ERIC K	director	Award / grant	385	385	Form 4
2026-04-05	Zell Aaron	director	Award / grant	385	385	Form 4
2026-04-05	ANASTASIO CURT	director	Option exercise	317	317	Form 4
2026-04-05	Davidson Phillip S	director	Award / grant	385	385	Form 4
2026-04-05	Davidson Phillip S	director	Award / grant	440	440	Form 4
2026-04-05	PATE WILLIAM	director	Award / grant	385	385	Form 4
2026-04-05	SILBERMAN ROBERT S	director	Award / grant	616	616	Form 4
2026-03-16	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	60,291	517,458	Form 4
2026-03-16	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	48,657	505,824	Form 4
2026-03-16	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	48,657	0	Form 4
2026-03-16	Monteleone William	director	Option exercise	60,291	0	Form 4
2026-02-27	PATE WILLIAM	director	Disposition	326,056	499,610	Form 4
2026-02-27	PATE WILLIAM	director	Disposition	158,898	499,610	Form 4
2026-02-27	PATE WILLIAM	director	Option exercise	326,056	825,666	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i