Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.35 · now $20.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PARK has typically landed between $16.97 and $26.50 — a range of −16.6% to +30.2% from the issuance price $20.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
176 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-12-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PARK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.4 (+5.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.98–$22.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.97–$26.5
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-25 | −21.9% | −23.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | −17.7% | −18.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-24 | −17.1% | −19.9% | +4.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-12-23 | +49.4% | −4.8% | +49.4% |
| 2025-12-03 | +48.8% | +0.0% | +56.0% |
| 2025-12-22 | +43.4% | −8.3% | +43.4% |
176 overlapping windows · 2025-12-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | Smith Christopher Charles | director | Purchase | 7,692 @ $13.00 | $100K | +274.7% of holding | +47.9% | +76.5% | 10,492 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Gerlach Todd Christopher | director | Purchase | 7,692 @ $13.00 | $100K | +12.6% of holding | +47.9% | +76.5% | 68,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | SWENSON PETER G | director | Purchase | 3,846 @ $13.00 | $50K | +1.6% of holding | +47.9% | +76.5% | 239,058 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Law Alan Siems | director | Purchase | 1,923 @ $13.00 | $25K | +1.1% of holding | +47.9% | +76.5% | 181,041 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Bernander Christopher James | director | Purchase | 1,923 @ $13.00 | $25K | +3.6% of holding | +47.9% | +76.5% | 55,756 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | SMITH PHILIP IRVING | director | Purchase | 769 @ $13.00 | $10K | +27.5% of holding | +47.9% | +76.5% | 3,569 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
15 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 180,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 181,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 180,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 181,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 180,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 181,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 180,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Law Alan Siems | director | Gift | 40 | 181,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bernander Christopher James | director | Award / grant | 11,184 | 11,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Law Alan Siems | director | Award / grant | 7,796 | 7,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Schaefer Anna Marie | director | Award / grant | 2,632 | 2,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Smith Christopher Charles | director | Award / grant | 2,632 | 2,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Steele Christopher Eugene | director | Award / grant | 5,855 | 5,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | SWENSON PETER G | director | Award / grant | 23,785 | 23,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | SMITH PHILIP IRVING | director | Award / grant | 2,632 | 2,632 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.