Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.11 · now $16.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAR has typically landed between $12.27 and $19.80 — a range of −23.9% to +22.9% from the issuance price $16.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.99 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.44–$17.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.27–$19.8
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −66.0% | −66.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −64.0% | −65.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −63.6% | −64.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-01 | +77.3% | +0.0% | +77.3% |
| 2020-04-21 | +72.1% | +0.0% | +76.5% |
| 2020-04-20 | +69.2% | −4.1% | +69.2% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Codner Elizabeth M | officer | Sale | 653 @ $19.29 | $13K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,789 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Ostertag Oliver | officer | Sale | 11,829 @ $18.75 | $222K | −9.4% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,894 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Singh Narinder | director | Purchase | 11,518 @ $17.36 | $200K | +42.6% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 64,013 @ $14.90 | $954K | +1.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,099,728 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 60,012 @ $14.90 | $894K | +1.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,028,763 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,004 @ $14.90 | $238K | +0.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,115,732 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Pascal Keith | director | Purchase | 13,000 @ $15.16 | $197K | +45.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,749 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,857 @ $14.34 | $98K | +0.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,122,589 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,429 @ $14.34 | $92K | +0.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,035,192 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,714 @ $14.34 | $25K | +0.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,124,303 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 558 @ $14.98 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,124,861 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 523 @ $14.98 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,035,715 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 139 @ $14.98 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,125,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 41,970 @ $14.05 | $590K | +0.9% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,958,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,347 @ $14.05 | $553K | +0.8% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,916,288 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,745 @ $14.45 | $343K | +0.5% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,821,005 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,260 @ $14.45 | $322K | +0.5% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,797,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,857 @ $14.01 | $320K | +0.5% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,871,227 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 21,429 @ $14.01 | $300K | +0.4% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,848,370 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,493 @ $14.05 | $147K | +0.2% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,968,751 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,936 @ $14.45 | $86K | +0.1% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,826,941 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,714 @ $14.01 | $80K | +0.1% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,876,941 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | STEENBERGE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Sale | 498 @ $14.20 | $7K | −0.9% of holding | +31.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | KING CATHY A | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $15.38 | $308K | −14.0% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 122,919 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 80,000 @ $14.61 | $1.2M | +1.7% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,775,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $14.67 | $293K | +0.4% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,695,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $14.61 | $146K | +1.1% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 912,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $14.61 | $146K | +1.1% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 925,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,500 @ $14.67 | $37K | +0.3% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 915,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,500 @ $14.67 | $37K | +0.3% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 902,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 191,209 @ $14.65 | $2.8M | +4.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,630,875 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 133,791 @ $14.50 | $1.9M | +3.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,329,425 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 64,658 @ $14.65 | $947K | +1.5% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,439,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 45,242 @ $14.50 | $656K | +1.1% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,195,634 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 27,946 @ $14.65 | $409K | +0.6% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,658,821 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 19,554 @ $14.50 | $284K | +0.5% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,348,979 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,179 @ $14.65 | $237K | +0.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,675,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,179 @ $14.65 | $237K | +1.9% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 861,179 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,179 @ $14.65 | $237K | +1.8% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 14,708 @ $14.65 | $215K | +0.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,375,008 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,321 @ $14.50 | $164K | +1.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 883,821 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,321 @ $14.50 | $164K | +1.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 872,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,321 @ $14.50 | $164K | +0.3% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,360,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,292 @ $14.50 | $149K | +0.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,150,392 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,942 @ $14.65 | $43K | +2.0% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,942 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,058 @ $14.50 | $30K | +1.4% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Singh Savneet | director | Sale | 14,310 @ $18.27 | $261K | −5.7% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 238,227 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Sale | 1,636 @ $18.27 | $30K | −2.5% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,257 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | KING CATHY A | officer | Sale | 1,517 @ $18.27 | $28K | −2.6% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | STEENBERGE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Sale | 582 @ $18.27 | $11K | −2.2% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,587 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Singh Savneet | director | Sale | 57,605 @ $17.49 | $1.0M | −18.6% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 252,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Sale | 6,588 @ $17.49 | $115K | −9.2% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | KING CATHY A | officer | Sale | 6,109 @ $17.49 | $107K | −9.5% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | STEENBERGE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Sale | 2,342 @ $17.49 | $41K | −8.1% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,439 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $22.20 | $1.1M | +1.2% of holding | −16.4% | −29.4% | 4,125,000 | Form 4 · filed 29 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,100 @ $23.23 | $351K | +0.4% of holding | −16.4% | −29.4% | 4,140,100 | Form 4 · filed 29 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 157,862 @ $22.76 | $3.6M | +4.1% of holding | −13.0% | −25.8% | 4,050,000 | Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $23.72 | $593K | +0.6% of holding | −13.0% | −25.8% | 4,075,000 | Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 464 @ $3.50 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | −13.0% | −25.8% | 464 | Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Voss Capital, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,500 @ $0.50 | $1K | ownership Δ n/a | −13.0% | −25.8% | 2,500 | Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Singh Narinder | director | Award / grant | 11,490 | 27,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Crawford Linda M. | director | Award / grant | 11,490 | 19,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | STOFFEL JAMES C | director | Award / grant | 11,490 | 42,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | RUSSO CYNTHIA A | director | Award / grant | 11,490 | 62,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Rauch Douglas Gregory | director | Award / grant | 11,490 | 25,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pascal Keith | director | Award / grant | 11,490 | 28,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | KING CATHY A | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 142,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | KING CATHY A | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | KING CATHY A | officer | Award / grant | 66,293 | 122,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Codner Elizabeth M | officer | Award / grant | 24,307 | 31,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | STEENBERGE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Award / grant | 26,517 | 52,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Award / grant | 79,552 | 142,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Singh Savneet | director | Award / grant | 206,246 | 444,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Ostertag Oliver | officer | Award / grant | 66,293 | 125,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Singh Savneet | director | Award / grant | 56,163 | 285,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Singh Savneet | director | Award / grant | 25,053 | 310,142 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Option exercise | 6,500 | 77,981 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Option exercise | 6,500 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Option exercise | 6,500 | 77,981 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Option exercise | 6,500 | 13,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-13 | Singh Savneet | director | Gift | 176,891 | 232,534 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Singh Narinder | director | Award / grant | 2,730 | 15,519 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Pascal Keith | director | Award / grant | 2,730 | 17,259 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | STOFFEL JAMES C | director | Award / grant | 2,730 | 31,190 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Crawford Linda M. | director | Award / grant | 2,730 | 8,110 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Rauch Douglas Gregory | director | Award / grant | 2,730 | 14,490 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | RUSSO CYNTHIA A | director | Award / grant | 2,730 | 51,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Option exercise | 6,500 | 77,981 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Option exercise | 6,500 | 19,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | STEENBERGE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Withheld for tax | 435 | 28,429 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Singh Savneet | director | Award / grant | 14,562 | 409,425 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Singh Savneet | director | Gift | 89,978 | 179,955 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-07 | Singh Savneet | director | Gift | 89,978 | 179,955 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Singh Savneet | director | Award / grant | 58,249 | 394,863 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | KING CATHY A | officer | Award / grant | 23,237 | 64,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | STEENBERGE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Award / grant | 8,520 | 28,864 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | MENAR BRYAN A | officer | Award / grant | 23,237 | 71,481 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Singh Savneet | director | Withheld for tax | 34,872 | 422,937 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Singh Savneet | director | Withheld for tax | 31,368 | 391,569 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Singh Savneet | director | Withheld for tax | 21,617 | 457,809 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-18 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-17 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-04-07 | 2025-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-02-11 | 2025-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2025-02-10 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.