Issued 2026-09-25 at $374.74 · now $374.74 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PANW has typically landed between $316.59 and $450.64 — a range of −15.5% to +20.3% from the issuance price $374.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,545 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-07-20 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($374.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PANW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $374.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $374.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $384.79 (+2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $359.53–$410.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $316.59–$450.64
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −46.8% | −46.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −44.1% | −44.1% | +1.5% |
| 2020-02-19 | −44.1% | −46.7% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +67.6% |
| 2026-05-01 | +64.1% | +0.0% | +65.9% |
| 2026-04-29 | +55.2% | −1.2% | +55.2% |
3,545 overlapping windows · 2012-07-20 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$116.36
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$39.34
- Analyst target · range $209.00–$430.00$337.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$374.74
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 4,751 @ $376.66 | $1.8M | −45.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,778 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 4,313 @ $375.73 | $1.6M | −29.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 3,348 @ $374.72 | $1.3M | −18.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,842 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 1,504 @ $378.74 | $570K | −33.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,981 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 1,293 @ $377.65 | $488K | −22.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,485 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $380.71 | $381K | −43.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,281 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 910 @ $373.53 | $340K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 900 @ $372.51 | $335K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 781 @ $381.86 | $298K | −61.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 700 @ $379.61 | $266K | −23.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,281 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 500 @ $382.69 | $191K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 500 @ $377.18 | $189K | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Key John P. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $376.03 | $940K | −20.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $373.61 | $374K | −15.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Sale | 900 @ $373.68 | $336K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 72,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Sale | 900 @ $353.77 | $318K | −1.2% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,354 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Thorning-Schmidt Helle | director | Sale | 700 @ $346.85 | $243K | −10.6% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Sale | 900 @ $345.00 | $311K | −1.1% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,644 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 290 @ $348.74 | $101K | −4.3% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 327 @ $309.83 | $101K | −4.4% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,032 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 305 @ $328.14 | $100K | −4.3% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $290.03 | $609K | −1.4% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $288.96 | $376K | −0.9% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 886 @ $291.07 | $258K | −0.6% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,464 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 300 @ $284.80 | $85K | −0.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 214 @ $291.84 | $62K | −0.1% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 200 @ $286.68 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 345 @ $290.17 | $100K | −4.5% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,359 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Key John P. | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $279.24 | $2.1M | −37.5% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 7,114 @ $279.88 | $2.0M | −21.0% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 5,193 @ $280.89 | $1.5M | −19.5% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,493 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 4,800 @ $278.89 | $1.3M | −12.4% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 1,493 @ $281.64 | $420K | −6.9% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $277.89 | $389K | −3.5% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 536 @ $280.00 | $150K | −6.5% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,704 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 555 @ $270.00 | $150K | −6.3% of holding | +24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Bawa Aparna | director | Sale | 377 @ $265.00 | $100K | −4.1% of holding | +21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $285.08 | $314K | −1.3% of holding | +18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 18,067 @ $259.62 | $4.7M | −6.6% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,771 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 16,865 @ $260.62 | $4.4M | −6.6% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,906 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 10,414 @ $258.70 | $2.7M | −3.7% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,838 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 4,694 @ $255.58 | $1.2M | −1.6% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 288,024 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 4,205 @ $254.85 | $1.1M | −1.4% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,718 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 2,897 @ $257.63 | $746K | −1.0% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,252 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 2,875 @ $256.60 | $738K | −1.0% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 285,149 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 923 @ $261.25 | $241K | −0.4% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,983 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 582 @ $251.94 | $147K | −0.2% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 297,243 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 543 @ $250.03 | $136K | −0.2% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,344 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 519 @ $251.20 | $130K | −0.2% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 297,825 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Klarich Lee | director | Sale | 320 @ $253.25 | $81K | −0.1% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 296,923 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Sale | 400 @ $236.95 | $95K | −0.5% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,736 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Key John P. | director | Sale | 1,572 @ $173.32 | $272K | −7.3% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $160.70 | $562K | −2.3% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $160.04 | $208K | −0.8% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $161.40 | $178K | −1.3% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Sale | 200 @ $157.81 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Arora Nikesh | director | Purchase | 67,985 @ $146.87 | $10.0M | +24.7% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 343,294 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-27 | Arora Nikesh | director | Purchase | 100 @ $147.48 | $15K | +0.0% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 343,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 14,184 @ $164.76 | $2.3M | −21.3% of holding | +4.6% | +86.8% | 52,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | GOETZ JAMES J | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $163.83 | $1.4M | −11.3% of holding | +4.6% | +86.8% | 66,684 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Award / grant | 7,211 | 79,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thorning-Schmidt Helle | director | Withheld for tax | 211 | 5,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,529 | 74,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,861 | 75,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,092 | 80,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Arora Nikesh | director | Discretionary | 865,090 | 2,093,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Jenkins William D Jr | director | Discretionary | 69,499 | 213,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thorning-Schmidt Helle | director | Withheld for tax | 211 | 6,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 947 | 84,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Award / grant | 26,369 | 85,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Thorning-Schmidt Helle | director | Withheld for tax | 345 | 6,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Arora Nikesh | director | Award / grant | 165 | 275,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Klarich Lee | director | Award / grant | 70 | 640,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Arora Nikesh | director | Award / grant | 165 | 275,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Klarich Lee | director | Award / grant | 70 | 640,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Bawa Aparna | director | Award / grant | 24 | 2,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Bawa Aparna | director | Award / grant | 24 | 2,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Klarich Lee | director | Option exercise | 92,010 | 419,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Klarich Lee | director | Option exercise | 92,010 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Klarich Lee | director | Gift | 50,000 | 640,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Goodburn Mark A. | director | Award / grant | 4,944 | 5,728 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Donovan John | director | Award / grant | 2,516 | 14,188 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Eschenbach Carl M. | director | Award / grant | 1,881 | 22,123 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Thorning-Schmidt Helle | director | Award / grant | 1,983 | 7,154 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | McCarthy Mary Pat | director | Award / grant | 2,033 | 55,023 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Key John P. | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 21,572 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Twohill Lorraine | director | Award / grant | 2,135 | 44,481 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Bawa Aparna | director | Award / grant | 2,160 | 2,160 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | Klarich Lee | director | Option exercise | 92,010 | 448,419 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | Klarich Lee | director | Option exercise | 92,010 | 92,010 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Gift | 2,500 | 160,119 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Klarich Lee | director | Option exercise | 92,010 | 477,183 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Klarich Lee | director | Option exercise | 92,010 | 184,020 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Klarich Lee | director | Withheld for tax | 232,055 | 385,173 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Jenkins William D Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 164,219 | 155,339 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Golechha Dipak | officer | Withheld for tax | 73,926 | 162,619 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,470 | 48,205 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Jenkins William D Jr | director | Award / grant | 312,025 | 319,558 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Paul Josh D. | officer | Award / grant | 31,201 | 63,675 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Klarich Lee | director | Award / grant | 468,038 | 617,228 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-05-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-21 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.