Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.53 · now $12.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAMT has typically landed between $9.75 and $16.44 — a range of −22.2% to +31.2% from the issuance price $12.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
456 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PAMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.19 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.91–$13.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.75–$16.44
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-17 | −43.1% | −43.1% | +0.6% |
| 2026-02-18 | −41.2% | −43.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-19 | −36.5% | −40.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-12 | +50.4% | −1.0% | +50.4% |
| 2026-05-13 | +49.3% | −3.6% | +49.3% |
| 2026-05-11 | +49.3% | +0.0% | +49.3% |
456 overlapping windows · 2024-10-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Purchase | 3,268,000 @ $9.55 | $31.2M | +26.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,695,848 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Sale | 3,268,000 @ $9.55 | $31.2M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Purchase | 2,000,000 @ $10.74 | $21.5M | +19.2% of holding | −15.5% | −37.7% | 12,427,848 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $10.74 | $21.5M | −100.0% of holding | −15.5% | −37.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Kleine Daniel C. | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 21,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Moroun Matthew J. | director | Award / grant | 1,453 | 6,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Award / grant | 1,453 | 6,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Bishop Michael D. | director | Award / grant | 968 | 5,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | MCLARTY FRANKLIN | director | Award / grant | 484 | 9,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | STEWART LANCE | director | Withheld for tax | 11,354 | 122,552 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-04 | STEWART LANCE | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 133,906 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Bishop Michael D. | director | Award / grant | 954 | 4,188 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Lukas Edwin J. | director | Award / grant | 954 | 6,036 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Award / grant | 954 | 4,558 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Moroun Matthew J. | director | Award / grant | 954 | 4,558 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-09 | Vitiritto Joseph A. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,376 | 184,842 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Vitiritto Joseph A. | director | Award / grant | 32,500 | 187,218 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.