PAGP · TickerCove

PAGPPlains GP Holdings LPEnergy · Oil & Gas Midstreamas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.68 · now $27.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAGP has typically landed between $25.07 and $31.19 — a range of −9.4% to +12.7% from the issuance price $27.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,227 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$27.68 · 94% of range

$15.62 low$28.47 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.6%

typical move · IQR 9.5%

−9.4%worst (p90)+12.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PAGP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $27.68 (+0.0%)
typical $28.4 (+2.6%)
middle 50% $27.09–$29.71
90% range $25.07–$31.19

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,227 windows spanning 2013-10-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−79.3%	−79.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−71.9%	−71.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−71.6%	−79.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+118.7%	+0.0%	+118.7%
2020-03-30	+74.9%	−0.6%	+74.9%
2020-03-31	+66.9%	−4.4%	+68.3%

3,227 overlapping windows · 2013-10-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

62%

+3.1%

n=13

Feb

62%

+1.6%

n=13

Mar

54%

−1.6%

n=13

Apr

62%

+6.7%

n=13

May

54%

+0.5%

n=13

Jun

54%

+2.6%

n=13

Jul

69%

+1.6%

n=13

Aug

54%

−2.5%

n=13

Sep

23%

−2.6%

n=13

Oct

25%

−2.2%

n=12

Nov

69%

+2.1%

n=13

Dec

46%

−0.8%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

64 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	Burk Victor	director	Option exercise	7,400	50,323	Form 4
2026-08-14	Burk Victor	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	PETERSEN GARY R	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Pruner Alexandra	director	Option exercise	7,400	88,294	Form 4
2026-08-14	Pruner Alexandra	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	RAYMOND JOHN T	director	Option exercise	7,400	322,794	Form 4
2026-08-14	RAYMOND JOHN T	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Option exercise	7,400	80,801	Form 4
2026-08-14	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Option exercise	7,400	95,180	Form 4
2026-08-14	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	DeSanctis Ellen	director	Option exercise	7,400	44,500	Form 4
2026-08-14	DeSanctis Ellen	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	McCarthy Kevin S	director	Option exercise	7,400	156,091	Form 4
2026-08-14	McCarthy Kevin S	director	Option exercise	7,400	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	PETERSEN GARY R	director	Option exercise	7,400	75,544	Form 4
2026-08-13	Burk Victor	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2026-08-13	PETERSEN GARY R	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2026-08-13	RAYMOND JOHN T	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2026-08-13	DeSanctis Ellen	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2026-08-13	TAYLOR CINDY B	director	Award / grant	7,700	7,700	Form 4
2026-08-13	Pruner Alexandra	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2026-08-13	McCarthy Kevin S	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2026-08-13	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2026-08-13	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Award / grant	6,150	6,150	Form 4
2025-08-14	RAYMOND JOHN T	director	Option exercise	7,650	0	Form 4
2025-08-14	RAYMOND JOHN T	director	Option exercise	11,900	0	Form 4
2025-08-14	RAYMOND JOHN T	director	Award / grant	7,400	7,400	Form 4
2025-08-14	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Option exercise	7,650	61,501	Form 4
2025-08-14	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Option exercise	11,900	73,401	Form 4
2025-08-14	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Option exercise	7,650	0	Form 4
2025-08-14	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Option exercise	11,900	0	Form 4
2025-08-14	Burk Victor	director	Option exercise	7,650	31,023	Form 4
2025-08-14	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Option exercise	7,650	75,880	Form 4
2025-08-14	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Option exercise	11,900	87,780	Form 4
2025-08-14	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Option exercise	7,650	0	Form 4
2025-08-14	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Option exercise	11,900	0	Form 4
2025-08-14	Ziemba Lawrence Michael	director	Award / grant	7,400	7,400	Form 4
2025-08-14	SHACKOULS BOBBY S	director	Award / grant	7,400	7,400	Form 4
2025-08-14	Burk Victor	director	Option exercise	11,900	42,923	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i