PAG · TickerCove

PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealershipsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $214.15 · now $214.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAG has typically landed between $191.44 and $244.72 — a range of −10.6% to +14.3% from the issuance price $214.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($214.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$214.15 · 89% of range

$139.39 low$223.44 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.9%

typical move · IQR 11.1%

−10.6%worst (p90)+14.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PAG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $214.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $214.15 (+0.0%)
typical $216.14 (+0.9%)
middle 50% $204.3–$227.98
90% range $191.44–$244.72

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−59.6%	−59.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−58.0%	−58.7%	+0.5%
2020-02-18	−57.8%	−57.8%	+2.7%
3 best
2009-03-06	+116.4%	−4.0%	+125.1%
2009-03-05	+116.0%	−7.9%	+116.0%
2009-03-09	+97.6%	+0.0%	+134.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.6%

n=20

Feb

55%

+1.2%

n=20

Mar

45%

+1.5%

n=20

Apr

75%

+7.1%

n=20

May

55%

−0.3%

n=20

Jun

50%

−0.2%

n=20

Jul

60%

+8.4%

n=20

Aug

60%

+0.1%

n=20

Sep

55%

+0.2%

n=20

Oct

50%

−0.9%

n=20

Nov

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Dec

55%

+0.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-02	Hulgrave Michelle	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $171.80	$258K	−7.9% of holding	+5.8%	not yet — horizon still open	17,596	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18	SMITH GREG C	director	Sale	1,488 @ $160.02	$238K	−100.0% of holding	+7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24	Hulgrave Michelle	officer	Sale	2,100 @ $160.17	$336K	−11.1% of holding	+1.6%	−5.3%	16,822	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-29	Pierce Sandra E.	director	Sale	1,604 @ $187.05	$300K	−51.2% of holding	−9.3%	−19.5%	1,529	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19	Hulgrave Michelle	officer	Sale	1,100 @ $182.55	$201K	−5.5% of holding	−6.4%	−16.7%	18,922	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18	Davis Lisa Ann	director	Sale	1,604 @ $180.74	$290K	−51.2% of holding	−4.0%	−13.3%	1,529	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13	Spradlin Shane M.	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $184.30	$553K	−8.3% of holding	−4.6%	−9.3%	33,152	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09	Spradlin Shane M.	officer	Sale	3,158 @ $167.10	$528K	−8.0% of holding	+5.5%	−14.8%	36,152	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03	PENSKE ROGER S	director	Sale	77,357 @ $161.37	$12.5M	−35.6% of holding	+6.5%	−15.0%	140,042	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-03	SMITH GREG C	director	Sale	1,529 @ $161.64	$247K	−100.0% of holding	+6.5%	−15.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02	PENSKE ROGER S	director	Sale	20,100 @ $159.80	$3.2M	−8.5% of holding	+9.3%	−12.5%	217,399	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02	KURNICK ROBERT H JR	director	Sale	11,357 @ $160.11	$1.8M	−28.1% of holding	+9.3%	−12.5%	29,080	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02	Hulgrave Michelle	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $163.08	$245K	−7.0% of holding	+9.3%	−12.5%	20,022	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13	BARR JOHN	director	Sale	1,529 @ $155.45	$238K	−100.0% of holding	+4.6%	+2.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14	Denker Claude H III	officer	Sale	8,746 @ $173.03	$1.5M	−23.2% of holding	−6.3%	−0.3%	28,917	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

160 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Pierce Sandra E.	director	Award / grant	80	12,097	Form 4
2026-09-01	Davis Lisa Ann	director	Award / grant	170	25,715	Form 4
2026-09-01	Duerheimer Wolfgang	director	Award / grant	158	23,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hoogendoorn David	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hoogendoorn David	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	SMITH GREG C	director	Award / grant	144	21,852	Form 4
2026-09-01	SMITH GREG C	director	Award / grant	144	21,852	Form 4
2026-09-01	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	Davis Lisa Ann	director	Award / grant	170	25,715	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pierce Sandra E.	director	Award / grant	80	12,097	Form 4
2026-09-01	SMITH GREG C	director	Award / grant	144	21,852	Form 4
2026-09-01	Duerheimer Wolfgang	director	Award / grant	158	23,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pierce Sandra E.	director	Award / grant	80	12,097	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hoogendoorn David	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	Hoogendoorn David	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	Duerheimer Wolfgang	director	Award / grant	158	23,987	Form 4
2026-09-01	Davis Lisa Ann	director	Award / grant	170	25,715	Form 4
2026-09-01	SMITH GREG C	director	Award / grant	144	21,852	Form 4
2026-09-01	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Award / grant	10	1,524	Form 4
2026-09-01	Davis Lisa Ann	director	Award / grant	170	25,715	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pierce Sandra E.	director	Award / grant	80	12,097	Form 4
2026-09-01	Duerheimer Wolfgang	director	Award / grant	158	23,987	Form 4
2026-06-03	Pierce Sandra E.	director	Award / grant	98	12,017	Form 4
2026-06-03	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Award / grant	12	1,514	Form 4
2026-06-03	Hoogendoorn David	director	Award / grant	12	1,514	Form 4
2026-06-03	Davis Lisa Ann	director	Award / grant	209	25,546	Form 4
2026-06-03	Davis Lisa Ann	director	Award / grant	209	25,546	Form 4
2026-06-03	Duerheimer Wolfgang	director	Award / grant	195	23,828	Form 4
2026-06-03	Hoogendoorn David	director	Award / grant	12	1,514	Form 4
2026-06-03	SCOTT RAYMOND E	director	Award / grant	12	1,514	Form 4
2026-06-03	SMITH GREG C	director	Award / grant	178	21,708	Form 4
2026-06-03	SMITH GREG C	director	Award / grant	178	21,708	Form 4
2026-06-03	Duerheimer Wolfgang	director	Award / grant	195	23,828	Form 4
2026-06-03	Pierce Sandra E.	director	Award / grant	98	12,017	Form 4
2026-06-01	PENSKE ROGER S	director	Withheld for tax	27,598	152,379	Form 4
2026-06-01	KURNICK ROBERT H JR	director	Withheld for tax	5,552	33,512	Form 4
2026-06-01	Spradlin Shane M.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,181	34,963	Form 4
2026-06-01	Denker Claude H III	officer	Withheld for tax	2,977	30,688	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i