Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.72 · now $42.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PACS has typically landed between $32.26 and $54.63 — a range of −24.5% to +27.9% from the issuance price $42.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
589 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-04-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PACS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $42.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $43.65 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.83–$48.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.26–$54.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 589 windows spanning 2024-04-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-01 | −65.0% | −65.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-10-30 | −63.2% | −63.2% | +0.0% |
| 2024-10-31 | −62.7% | −63.0% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-13 | +224.8% | −1.1% | +225.1% |
| 2025-11-14 | +223.3% | +0.0% | +228.8% |
| 2025-11-12 | +203.6% | −7.7% | +203.6% |
589 overlapping windows · 2024-04-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.6%
n=2
Feb
50%
−1.1%
n=2
Mar
0%
−12.9%
n=2
Apr
50%
−4.9%
n=2
May
100%
+11.3%
n=3
Jun
67%
+14.5%
n=3
Jul
67%
+5.0%
n=3
Aug
67%
+2.7%
n=3
Sep
100%
+6.6%
n=3
Oct
50%
−2.6%
n=2
Nov
50%
+56.8%
n=2
Dec
50%
−1.1%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 104,132 @ $42.09 | $4.4M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,570,434 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 30,466 @ $42.89 | $1.3M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,539,968 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 21,084 @ $43.75 | $922K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,518,884 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 137,684 @ $44.56 | $6.1M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,681,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 6,634 @ $44.91 | $298K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,674,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 317 @ $45.03 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,555,249 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 10,529 @ $45.23 | $476K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,555,566 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 8,771 @ $45.16 | $396K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,566,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 4,758 @ $43.33 | $206K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,574,866 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 21,001 @ $43.59 | $916K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,579,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 3,056 @ $42.80 | $131K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,600,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 22,829 @ $42.68 | $974K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,603,924 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 243 @ $43.14 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,603,681 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 19,315 @ $42.53 | $821K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,627,611 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 858 @ $43.11 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,626,753 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 17,435 @ $42.78 | $746K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,653,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 6,348 @ $43.36 | $275K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,646,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 22,789 @ $42.35 | $965K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,672,077 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 1,368 @ $43.05 | $59K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,670,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 31,654 @ $43.61 | $1.4M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,722,456 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 27,590 @ $44.25 | $1.2M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,694,866 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 77,427 @ $43.77 | $3.4M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,767,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 13,879 @ $44.76 | $621K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,754,110 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 84,650 @ $44.26 | $3.7M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,845,483 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 67 @ $44.85 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,845,416 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 66,797 @ $44.18 | $3.0M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,930,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 74,844 @ $44.27 | $3.3M | −0.1% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,996,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Sale | 9,758 @ $43.34 | $423K | −0.0% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,071,774 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Conway Patrick Hugh | director | Sale | 3,497 @ $44.41 | $155K | −28.1% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,947 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Sale | 36,375 @ $45.70 | $1.7M | −1.4% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,536,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Sale | 3,625 @ $44.53 | $161K | −0.1% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,572,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Sale | 32,327 @ $45.13 | $1.5M | −1.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,576,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Sale | 7,440 @ $44.50 | $331K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,608,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 3,332 @ $45.05 | $150K | −0.0% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,906,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Sale | 233 @ $45.76 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,576,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 10,296 @ $45.03 | $464K | −0.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,910,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 4,966 @ $45.06 | $224K | −0.0% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,920,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 20,338 @ $45.07 | $917K | −0.0% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,925,478 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 142,163 @ $45.33 | $6.4M | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,945,816 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Sale | 4,137 @ $45.04 | $186K | −1.2% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 355,338 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 12,825 @ $45.01 | $577K | −0.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,087,979 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Sale | 6,663 @ $45.03 | $300K | −1.8% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,475 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 6,080 @ $45.02 | $274K | −0.0% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,100,804 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Sale | 4,200 @ $45.01 | $189K | −1.1% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 366,138 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 61,731 @ $40.50 | $2.5M | −0.1% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,102,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 200 @ $41.01 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,102,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-25 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 138,069 @ $40.33 | $5.6M | −0.3% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,164,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $40.01 | $600K | −3.9% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 370,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 60,364 @ $35.28 | $2.1M | −0.1% of holding | +26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,305,913 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 3,316 @ $35.75 | $119K | −0.0% of holding | +26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,302,597 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 83,066 @ $35.90 | $3.0M | −0.2% of holding | +29.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,366,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 134,093 @ $36.23 | $4.9M | −0.2% of holding | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,468,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 19,138 @ $37.05 | $709K | −0.0% of holding | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,449,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Sale | 23 @ $37.88 | $871 | −0.0% of holding | +26.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,449,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Sale | 24,089 @ $37.04 | $892K | −2.9% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 806,866 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $38.01 | $125K | −0.4% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 803,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Sale | 45,949 @ $37.91 | $1.7M | −5.2% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 837,769 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Sale | 6,814 @ $38.74 | $264K | −0.8% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 830,955 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Sale | 36,335 @ $34.28 | $1.2M | −1.3% of holding | −10.0% | +12.4% | 2,667,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Sale | 159,556 @ $29.89 | $4.8M | −17.4% of holding | +21.0% | +13.4% | 755,836 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Hancock Mark | director | Gift | 88,000 | 53,818,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Millard Jacqueline | director | Award / grant | 4,287 | 20,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Conway Patrick Hugh | director | Award / grant | 4,287 | 12,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dilsaver Evelyn S | director | Award / grant | 4,287 | 36,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hancock Mark | director | Award / grant | 4,287 | 54,106,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LEAVITT TAYLOR S. | director | Award / grant | 4,287 | 19,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Conway Patrick Hugh | director | Award / grant | 4,660 | 8,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Millard Jacqueline | director | Award / grant | 4,660 | 15,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | LEAVITT TAYLOR S. | director | Award / grant | 4,660 | 15,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dilsaver Evelyn S | director | Award / grant | 4,660 | 31,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | HENDRICKSON CAREY P | officer | Award / grant | 48,426 | 48,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Withheld for tax | 197,525 | 2,616,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Withheld for tax | 66,471 | 883,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,691 | 385,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Award / grant | 35,159 | 410,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Bingham Trent Dean | officer | Award / grant | 14,649 | 39,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Award / grant | 82,039 | 950,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Award / grant | 234,397 | 55,081,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Hancock Mark | director | Award / grant | 98,154 | 54,602,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 146,498 | 2,813,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Priegnitz Kelly | officer | Award / grant | 8,203 | 38,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Hancock Mark | director | Gift | 300,000 | 54,504,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Conway Patrick Hugh | director | Award / grant | 3,497 | 3,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Priegnitz Kelly | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bingham Trent Dean | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,998 | 2,703,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Withheld for tax | 20,082 | 54,847,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Hancock Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 12,774 | 54,804,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,541 | 868,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,348 | 374,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Millard Jacqueline | director | Award / grant | 4,399 | 11,270 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Dilsaver Evelyn S | director | Award / grant | 4,399 | 27,138 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | LEAVITT TAYLOR S. | director | Award / grant | 4,399 | 10,837 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 41,018 | 2,725,680 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Award / grant | 32,500 | 359,091 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Lewis Michelle Renee | officer | Award / grant | 19,127 | 378,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 54,826,199 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Murray Jason Hulse | director | Award / grant | 41,018 | 54,867,217 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Jergensen Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 2,684,662 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | MITCHELL JOHN TODD | officer | Award / grant | 21,855 | 877,691 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.