Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.84 · now $3.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PACK has typically landed between $2.55 and $5.34 — a range of −33.7% to +39.0% from the issuance price $3.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,119 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PACK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.69 (-3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.1–$4.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.55–$5.34
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-06-03 | −48.3% | −48.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-06-02 | −47.7% | −47.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-10 | −45.0% | −45.0% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-10-14 | +107.9% | +0.0% | +107.9% |
| 2022-10-13 | +93.5% | −6.1% | +93.5% |
| 2022-10-17 | +90.5% | +0.0% | +90.5% |
2,119 overlapping windows · 2018-03-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Tranen Alicia M. | director | Award / grant | 2,713 | 322,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jones Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 2,713 | 292,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Seshadri Salil | director | Award / grant | 2,713 | 575,251 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | El Pamela K. | director | Award / grant | 16,181 | 145,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Jones Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 16,181 | 289,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | KING ROBERT C | director | Award / grant | 16,181 | 188,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Seshadri Salil | director | Award / grant | 16,181 | 572,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Tranen Alicia M. | director | Award / grant | 16,181 | 319,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Corley Thomas F. | director | Award / grant | 16,181 | 122,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Dolan Victoria L | director | Award / grant | 16,181 | 45,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tranen Alicia M. | director | Award / grant | 5,179 | 303,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Seshadri Salil | director | Award / grant | 5,179 | 556,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jones Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 5,179 | 273,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | ASALI OMAR | director | Withheld for tax | 60,937 | 2,728,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Drew William | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,830 | 544,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Gliedman Michael S. | director | Withheld for tax | 12,686 | 160,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Aram Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 950 | 29,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aram Paul | officer | Award / grant | 750 | 30,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Drew William | officer | Award / grant | 4,602 | 561,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | ASALI OMAR | director | Award / grant | 13,803 | 2,789,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gliedman Michael S. | director | Award / grant | 3,750 | 173,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Gliedman Michael S. | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 169,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Aram Paul | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | ASALI OMAR | director | Award / grant | 92,026 | 2,775,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Drew William | officer | Award / grant | 30,675 | 557,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | ASALI OMAR | director | Withheld for tax | 46,552 | 2,683,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Drew William | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,823 | 526,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Gliedman Michael S. | director | Withheld for tax | 8,287 | 144,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Tranen Alicia M. | director | Award / grant | 3,390 | 298,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Seshadri Salil | director | Award / grant | 3,390 | 551,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Jones Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 3,390 | 268,554 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Aram Paul | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Jones Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 3,372 | 265,164 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Seshadri Salil | director | Award / grant | 3,372 | 547,788 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Tranen Alicia M. | director | Award / grant | 3,372 | 294,672 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Seshadri Salil | director | Award / grant | 5,179 | 544,416 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Jones Michael Anthony | director | Award / grant | 5,179 | 261,792 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Tranen Alicia M. | director | Award / grant | 5,179 | 291,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Dolan Victoria L | director | Award / grant | 29,325 | 29,325 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-22 | El Pamela K. | director | Award / grant | 29,325 | 128,923 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.