PACBPacific Biosciences of California, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.34 · now $1.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PACB has typically landed between $0.89 and $1.93 — a range of −33.7% to +44.0% from the issuance price $1.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,972 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-10-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PACB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$0.8878worst · -33.7%$1.93best · +44.0%
  • now $1.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.27 (-5.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.05–$1.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.8878–$1.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,972 windows spanning 2010-10-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-03-15−63.1%−63.1%+1.3%
2024-03-25−62.3%−62.3%+3.9%
2024-03-18−61.9%−61.9%+4.6%
3 best
2022-07-18+103.6%+0.0%+123.7%
2020-09-03+100.6%+0.0%+100.6%
2015-09-29+97.6%−0.5%+119.3%

3,972 overlapping windows · 2010-10-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+8.2%
n=16
Feb
19%
−10.2%
n=16
Mar
31%
−7.9%
n=16
Apr
38%
−7.8%
n=16
May
38%
−1.6%
n=16
Jun
50%
+3.4%
n=16
Jul
38%
+0.3%
n=16
Aug
50%
+11.6%
n=16
Sep
38%
−2.0%
n=16
Oct
53%
+14.2%
n=15
Nov
56%
+8.4%
n=16
Dec
44%
+2.6%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $30K — Van Oene Mark2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $121K — Gibson James R II2026-03-03: 3 insider sales, $33K — HENRY CHRISTIAN O, Van Oene Mark, Farmer Michele2026-02-18: 3 insider sales, $344K — HENRY CHRISTIAN O, Van Oene Mark, Farmer Michele2026-02-17: 3 insider sales, $783K — HENRY CHRISTIAN O, Van Oene Mark, Farmer Michele2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $35K — Van Oene Mark2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $35K2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $33K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $121K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $30K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Van Oene Mark — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gibson James R II — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HENRY CHRISTIAN O — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Van Oene Mark — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Farmer Michele — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HENRY CHRISTIAN O — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Van Oene Mark — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Farmer Michele — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HENRY CHRISTIAN O — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Van Oene Mark — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Farmer Michele — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Van Oene Mark — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Van Oene MarkofficerSale26,911 @ $1.13$30K−1.0% of holding+13.2%not yet — horizon still open2,705,853Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01Gibson James R IIofficerSale88,185 @ $1.37$121K−6.6% of holding+8.5%not yet — horizon still open1,245,663Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorSale12,497 @ $1.51$19K−0.3% of holding−7.8%−28.4%3,581,813Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Van Oene MarkofficerSale6,504 @ $1.51$10K−0.3% of holding−7.8%−28.4%2,243,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Farmer MicheleofficerSale2,979 @ $1.51$5K−1.0% of holding−7.8%−28.4%305,948Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorSale140,874 @ $1.63$229K−5.0% of holding−10.3%−34.7%2,673,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Van Oene MarkofficerSale55,107 @ $1.63$90K−3.1% of holding−10.3%−34.7%1,742,638Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Farmer MicheleofficerSale14,952 @ $1.63$24K−6.4% of holding−10.3%−34.7%219,092Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorSale331,793 @ $1.58$523K−10.5% of holding−12.7%−40.8%2,814,374Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Van Oene MarkofficerSale129,790 @ $1.58$205K−6.7% of holding−12.7%−40.8%1,797,745Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Farmer MicheleofficerSale35,215 @ $1.58$55K−13.1% of holding−12.7%−40.8%234,044Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18Van Oene MarkofficerSale26,836 @ $1.31$35K−1.4% of holding−10.0%+15.3%1,920,035Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Farmer MicheleofficerSale5,195 @ $1.00$5K−1.9% of holding+28.0%+41.4%269,259Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorSale12,497 @ $1.41$18K−0.6% of holding−10.8%−13.4%2,225,357Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Van Oene MarkofficerSale6,486 @ $1.41$9K−0.4% of holding−10.8%−13.4%1,497,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Farmer MicheleofficerSale2,973 @ $1.41$4K−1.6% of holding−10.8%−13.4%184,619Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorSale259,909 @ $1.88$488K−10.4% of holding−25.9%−35.7%2,237,854Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Van Oene MarkofficerSale100,773 @ $1.88$189K−6.3% of holding−25.9%−35.7%1,496,681Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Farmer MicheleofficerSale24,349 @ $1.88$46K−11.5% of holding−25.9%−35.7%187,592Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-10Van Oene MarkofficerSale34,405 @ $2.03$70K−2.1% of holding−40.9%−39.2%1,597,454Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Van Oene MarkofficerAward / grant489,1302,732,764Form 4
2026-08-10Van Oene MarkofficerAward / grant1,967,8881,967,888Form 4
2026-06-03LIVINGSTON RANDALL SdirectorAward / grant223,492223,492Form 4
2026-06-03MILLIGAN JOHN FdirectorAward / grant223,492223,492Form 4
2026-06-03MOHR MARSHALLdirectorAward / grant223,492223,492Form 4
2026-06-03ORDONEZ KATHYdirectorAward / grant223,492223,492Form 4
2026-06-03Smith Christopher MdirectorAward / grant223,492223,492Form 4
2026-06-03Valantine HannahdirectorAward / grant223,492223,492Form 4
2026-06-03Ericson William W.directorAward / grant223,492223,492Form 4
2026-06-03Gibson ChristopherdirectorAward / grant74,49774,497Form 4
2026-04-08Gibson ChristopherdirectorAward / grant77,84277,842Form 4
2026-04-08Gibson ChristopherdirectorAward / grant57,473111,386Form 4
2026-03-03Gibson ChristopherdirectorAward / grant53,91353,913Form 4
2026-03-03Gibson ChristopherdirectorAward / grant73,08773,087Form 4
2026-02-27Van Oene MarkofficerAward / grant1,000,0001,000,000Form 4
2026-02-27Farmer MicheleofficerAward / grant89,835308,927Form 4
2026-02-27Farmer MicheleofficerAward / grant179,670179,670Form 4
2026-02-27HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorAward / grant1,841,6211,841,621Form 4
2026-02-27HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorAward / grant920,8103,594,310Form 4
2026-02-27Gibson James R IIofficerAward / grant667,696667,696Form 4
2026-02-27Van Oene MarkofficerAward / grant500,0002,242,638Form 4
2026-02-27Gibson James R IIofficerAward / grant333,8481,333,848Form 4
2025-06-04LIVINGSTON RANDALL SdirectorAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-06-04Smith Christopher MdirectorAward / grant32,50032,500Form 4
2025-06-04Ericson William W.directorAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-06-04Shapiro LucydirectorAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-06-04ORDONEZ KATHYdirectorAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-06-04MOHR MARSHALLdirectorAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-06-04MILLIGAN JOHN FdirectorAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-06-04Valantine HannahdirectorAward / grant65,00065,000Form 4
2025-03-31Gibson James R IIofficerAward / grant1,000,0001,000,000Form 4
2025-03-31Gibson James R IIofficerAward / grant2,000,0002,000,000Form 4
2025-03-19Farmer MicheleofficerAward / grant89,835274,454Form 4
2025-03-19Farmer MicheleofficerAward / grant179,670179,670Form 4
2025-03-19HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorAward / grant920,8103,146,167Form 4
2025-03-19HENRY CHRISTIAN OdirectorAward / grant1,841,6211,841,621Form 4
2025-03-19Van Oene MarkofficerAward / grant449,1761,946,871Form 4
2025-03-19Van Oene MarkofficerAward / grant898,352898,352Form 4
2025-01-30Smith Christopher MdirectorAward / grant72,90172,901Form 4
2025-01-30Smith Christopher MdirectorAward / grant54,09954,099Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.