Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.42 · now $25.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PAA has typically landed between $23.15 and $28.71 — a range of −8.9% to +12.9% from the issuance price $25.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PAA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $25.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.04 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.81–$27.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.15–$28.71
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −79.9% | −79.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −71.9% | −79.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −70.8% | −79.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +120.9% | +0.0% | +120.9% |
| 2020-03-30 | +78.9% | +0.0% | +78.9% |
| 2020-03-31 | +70.5% | −3.5% | +70.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Ziemba Lawrence Michael | director | Sale | 2,346 @ $21.95 | $51K | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
65 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | RAYMOND JOHN T | director | Disposition | 20,376,259 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 252,112 | 388,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chandler Chris R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 252,112 | 882,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chiang Willie CW | director | Withheld for tax | 136,292 | 1,396,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Herbold Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 54,241 | 327,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | McGee Richard K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 42,957 | 672,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Swanson Al | officer | Withheld for tax | 42,957 | 668,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Herbold Chris | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 341,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chandler Chris R. | officer | Option exercise | 500,000 | 993,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chandler Chris R. | officer | Option exercise | 140,691 | 1,134,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chandler Chris R. | officer | Option exercise | 500,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chandler Chris R. | officer | Option exercise | 140,691 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chiang Willie CW | director | Option exercise | 346,357 | 1,533,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chiang Willie CW | director | Option exercise | 346,357 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Option exercise | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Option exercise | 140,691 | 640,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Gift | 388,579 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Gift | 388,579 | 907,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Option exercise | 500,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Option exercise | 140,691 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Herbold Chris | officer | Option exercise | 40,609 | 381,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Herbold Chris | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Herbold Chris | officer | Option exercise | 40,609 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | McGee Richard K. | officer | Option exercise | 109,165 | 715,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | McGee Richard K. | officer | Option exercise | 109,165 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | PAA GP Holdings LLC | director | Award / grant | 59,200 | 233,059,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Swanson Al | officer | Option exercise | 109,165 | 711,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Swanson Al | officer | Option exercise | 109,165 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Award / grant | 113,600 | 113,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chandler Chris R. | officer | Award / grant | 113,600 | 113,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Swanson Al | officer | Award / grant | 85,600 | 85,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Chiang Willie CW | director | Award / grant | 373,000 | 373,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | McGee Richard K. | officer | Award / grant | 88,500 | 88,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Chiang Willie CW | director | Withheld for tax | 220,776 | 1,186,791 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Chandler Chris R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 89,665 | 493,904 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 89,665 | 138,199 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | McGee Richard K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 69,544 | 606,353 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Swanson Al | officer | Withheld for tax | 69,544 | 601,901 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Herbold Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,284 | 241,073 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-14 | Goebel Jeremy L. | officer | Option exercise | 227,864 | 227,864 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.