Issued 2026-09-16 at $97.61 · now $97.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, P has typically landed between $78.52 and $124.13 — a range of −19.6% to +27.2% from the issuance price $97.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,731 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-10-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($97.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where P has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $97.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $97.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $99.62 (+2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.37–$108.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $78.52–$124.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,731 windows spanning 2015-10-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −53.3% | −53.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −52.0% | −52.0% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-14 | −51.6% | −52.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-16 | +72.8% | +0.0% | +72.8% |
| 2026-07-17 | +68.6% | −0.2% | +70.3% |
| 2026-07-20 | +67.4% | −1.0% | +69.0% |
2,731 overlapping windows · 2015-10-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
82%
+4.1%
n=11
Feb
55%
+1.6%
n=11
Mar
18%
−4.3%
n=11
Apr
64%
+2.2%
n=11
May
64%
+4.6%
n=11
Jun
55%
+4.5%
n=11
Jul
45%
+0.7%
n=11
Aug
64%
+9.4%
n=11
Sep
55%
+2.3%
n=11
Oct
60%
+2.3%
n=10
Nov
45%
−0.6%
n=11
Dec
55%
−0.2%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 41,023 @ $94.66 | $3.9M | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,568,574 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 32,428 @ $94.50 | $3.1M | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,482,572 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 32,413 @ $94.50 | $3.1M | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,482,587 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 24,372 @ $95.63 | $2.3M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,544,202 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 14,176 @ $95.62 | $1.4M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,468,411 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 14,148 @ $95.63 | $1.4M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,468,424 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 4,605 @ $96.34 | $444K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,539,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 3,424 @ $96.37 | $330K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,465,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 3,411 @ $96.37 | $329K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,465,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 34,178 @ $117.83 | $4.0M | −82.4% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,313 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 18,924 @ $116.74 | $2.2M | −31.3% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,491 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 7,313 @ $118.40 | $866K | −100.0% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 4,400 @ $115.86 | $510K | −6.8% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,415 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 45,906 @ $117.13 | $5.4M | −53.6% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 39,668 @ $117.87 | $4.7M | −100.0% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 9,454 @ $116.27 | $1.1M | −9.9% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,574 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 2,872 @ $115.16 | $331K | −2.9% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,028 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $113.88 | $137K | −1.2% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 900 @ $112.56 | $101K | −0.9% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 38,333 @ $111.24 | $4.3M | −44.3% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 36,984 @ $111.77 | $4.1M | −76.7% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 10,293 @ $113.65 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 6,922 @ $108.92 | $754K | −6.9% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,078 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 6,520 @ $110.19 | $718K | −7.0% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 948 @ $112.72 | $107K | −8.4% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 22,388 @ $104.20 | $2.3M | −40.5% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 21,146 @ $103.18 | $2.2M | −27.7% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 11,013 @ $102.12 | $1.1M | −12.6% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 9,459 @ $106.14 | $1.0M | −31.7% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 9,129 @ $109.21 | $997K | −100.0% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 8,728 @ $100.32 | $876K | −8.7% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 5,597 @ $108.27 | $606K | −38.0% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 5,624 @ $107.47 | $604K | −27.6% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 3,816 @ $101.33 | $387K | −4.2% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 3,100 @ $105.16 | $326K | −9.4% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,809 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 53,685 @ $95.42 | $5.1M | −78.4% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 30,601 @ $99.27 | $3.0M | −1.9% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,615,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 30,800 @ $98.50 | $3.0M | −1.8% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,645,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 31,545 @ $94.10 | $3.0M | −31.5% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 20,654 @ $98.60 | $2.0M | −0.8% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,531,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 20,648 @ $98.60 | $2.0M | −0.8% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,531,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 13,603 @ $99.35 | $1.4M | −0.5% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,518,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 13,595 @ $99.35 | $1.4M | −0.5% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,518,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 11,251 @ $97.93 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,552,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 11,249 @ $97.93 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,552,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 8,500 @ $97.35 | $827K | −82.8% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,768 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 4,502 @ $96.35 | $434K | −30.5% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $100.41 | $361K | −0.2% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,611,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $100.48 | $211K | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,516,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 1,899 @ $101.50 | $193K | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,609,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 1,768 @ $98.15 | $174K | −100.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $97.33 | $156K | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,676,697 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $101.59 | $112K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,515,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 750 @ $94.16 | $71K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,564,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 700 @ $94.63 | $66K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,678,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 600 @ $96.01 | $58K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,678,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 350 @ $96.28 | $34K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,563,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Sale | 200 @ $101.99 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,609,597 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 200 @ $95.45 | $19K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,564,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Colgrove John | director | Sale | 35,185 @ $90.01 | $3.2M | −100.0% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 64,815 | 64,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 64,815 | 6,009,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 6,074,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 6,174,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 6,274,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 6,374,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 35,185 | 35,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 35,185 | 6,474,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 89,720 | 89,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 89,720 | 6,509,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Withheld for tax | 30,036 | 1,819,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Colgrove John | director | Withheld for tax | 15,956 | 6,598,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Singh Ajay | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,821 | 350,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | ROBBIATI TAREK | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,825 | 334,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Chu Mona | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,864 | 136,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dietzen Scott | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 8,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yen Mallun | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 48,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Murphy John Francis | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 19,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Taylor Susan J.S. | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 103,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Taylor Roxanne | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 19,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rothschild Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 110,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Tomb Gregory | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 34,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Brown Andrew William Fraser | director | Award / grant | 3,515 | 32,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 10,280 | 6,614,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 10,280 | 10,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Dietzen Scott | director | Other acquisition | 12,811 | 658,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Dietzen Scott | director | Other acquisition | 12,811 | 4,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Singh Ajay | officer | Award / grant | 49,188 | 49,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Chu Mona | officer | Award / grant | 8,848 | 139,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Colgrove John | director | Award / grant | 78,700 | 78,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Award / grant | 118,050 | 118,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 2,429,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Option exercise | 500,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 6,625,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Colgrove John | director | Gift | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.