OXYOccidental Petroleum CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $59.36 · now $59.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OXY has typically landed between $52.13 and $70.14 — a range of −12.2% to +18.2% from the issuance price $59.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($59.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where OXY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $59.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$52.13worst · -12.2%$70.14best · +18.2%
  • now $59.36 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $59.97 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $56.54–$63.4
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $52.13–$70.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−76.3%−76.3%+0.0%
2020-02-20−75.5%−75.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−73.9%−73.9%+3.4%
3 best
2020-11-06+91.1%+0.0%+91.1%
2020-11-04+89.6%+0.0%+89.6%
2020-10-28+86.4%+0.0%+88.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$57.0B
market cap
$4.01
EPS (TTM)
14.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$21.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.66
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $59.36$40.37$107.52
  • DCF (intrinsic)$102.88
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$81.31
  • Analyst target · range $45.00–$75.00$65.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$59.36

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.9%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Mar
63%
−0.0%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.0%
n=19
May
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Jun
63%
+2.4%
n=19
Jul
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
39%
−1.0%
n=18
Nov
50%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$66$392026-06-23: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Jackson Richard A.2025-12-16: 1 insider purchase, $195K — KLESSE WILLIAM R2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $195K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $250K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Jackson Richard A. — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KLESSE WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2025-12-16, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23Jackson Richard A.directorPurchase4,770 @ $52.38$250K+1.1% of holding+9.7%not yet — horizon still open444,098Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16KLESSE WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $38.98$195K+2.3% of holding+7.5%+23.5%218,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerPurchase763,017 @ $46.82$35.7M+0.3% of holding+6.9%−12.0%264,941,431Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-19BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,372,309 @ $45.55$153.6M+1.3% of holding+6.6%−10.0%263,936,708Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-19BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerPurchase241,706 @ $46.31$11.2M+0.1% of holding+6.6%−10.0%264,178,414Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-18BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,430,924 @ $46.16$112.2M+0.9% of holding+5.3%−11.2%260,189,810Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerPurchase374,589 @ $46.92$17.6M+0.1% of holding+5.3%−11.2%260,564,399Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,477,362 @ $46.25$114.6M+1.0% of holding+8.4%−4.8%257,758,886Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01POLLACK BRADofficerAward / grant26,28442,660Form 4
2026-06-01Hollub Vicki A.directorWithheld for tax73,4771,037,826Form 4
2026-06-01Hollub Vicki A.directorWithheld for tax7011,111,303Form 4
2026-06-01Hollub Vicki A.directorAward / grant3,1831,112,004Form 4
2026-06-01Jackson Richard A.directorAward / grant101,833439,328Form 4
2026-05-04GOULD ANDREWdirectorWithheld for tax1,49446,334Form 4
2026-05-04MOORE JACK BdirectorWithheld for tax1,47976,431Form 4
2026-05-04BAILEY VICKY AdirectorWithheld for tax1,22315,490Form 4
2026-05-04Robinson Kenneth B.directorWithheld for tax91315,359Form 4
2026-05-04KLESSE WILLIAM RdirectorWithheld for tax913222,149Form 4
2026-05-04GOULD ANDREWdirectorAward / grant4,97847,828Form 4
2026-05-04BAILEY VICKY AdirectorAward / grant3,73416,713Form 4
2026-05-04ONeill ClairedirectorAward / grant3,73416,265Form 4
2026-05-04Shearer BobdirectorAward / grant3,73466,463Form 4
2026-05-04POLADIAN AVEDICK BARUYRdirectorAward / grant4,14979,575Form 4
2026-05-04KLESSE WILLIAM RdirectorAward / grant4,149223,062Form 4
2026-05-04GUTIERREZ CARLOS MdirectorAward / grant3,73482,651Form 4
2026-05-04Robinson Kenneth B.directorAward / grant4,14916,272Form 4
2026-05-04MOORE JACK BdirectorAward / grant6,72077,910Form 4
2026-04-14POLADIAN AVEDICK BARUYRdirectorGift5,00085,426Form 4
2026-04-14POLADIAN AVEDICK BARUYRdirectorGift5,0005,000Form 4
2026-04-14POLADIAN AVEDICK BARUYRdirectorGift5,00080,426Form 4
2026-04-14POLADIAN AVEDICK BARUYRdirectorGift5,00075,426Form 4
2026-03-01Hollub Vicki A.directorAward / grant94,1981,108,806Form 4
2026-03-01Jackson Richard A.directorAward / grant37,679337,495Form 4
2026-03-01Peterson Robert LofficerAward / grant24,115313,199Form 4
2026-03-01Champion Christopher OofficerAward / grant13,565144,004Form 4
2026-03-01Mathew SunilofficerAward / grant26,376228,739Form 4
2026-03-01Dillon KennethofficerAward / grant27,883372,201Form 4
2026-03-01Simmons Jeff FofficerAward / grant24,115332,726Form 4
2026-03-01Kerrigan Sylvia JofficerAward / grant48,983179,516Form 4
2026-02-28Hollub Vicki A.directorWithheld for tax33,1361,014,608Form 4
2026-02-28Kerrigan Sylvia JofficerWithheld for tax18,304130,533Form 4
2026-02-28Jackson Richard A.directorWithheld for tax10,131299,816Form 4
2026-02-28Dillon KennethofficerWithheld for tax10,131344,318Form 4
2026-02-28Mathew SunilofficerWithheld for tax9,732202,363Form 4
2026-02-28Simmons Jeff FofficerWithheld for tax9,436308,611Form 4
2026-02-28Peterson Robert LofficerWithheld for tax8,988289,084Form 4
2026-02-28Champion Christopher OofficerWithheld for tax4,970130,439Form 4
2026-02-23GUTIERREZ CARLOS MdirectorGift3,65678,917Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-10-282025-10-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-05$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-06-222025-05-08$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-312025-05-15$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-05-062025-05-05$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-05-062025-05-05$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-04-282025-04-08$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-03-272025-02-25$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-03-092025-02-24$15–50K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-01-272025-01-21$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.