Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.54 · now $4.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OWLT has typically landed between $2.97 and $6.45 — a range of −34.7% to +42.2% from the issuance price $4.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,450 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OWLT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.41 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.72–$5.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.97–$6.45
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-06-03 | −65.8% | −68.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-06-02 | −64.6% | −67.0% | +4.2% |
| 2022-05-31 | −64.6% | −65.6% | +8.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-02-23 | +148.9% | +0.0% | +148.9% |
| 2022-02-22 | +148.8% | +0.0% | +148.8% |
| 2022-02-18 | +135.0% | +0.0% | +135.0% |
1,450 overlapping windows · 2020-11-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 6,892 @ $11.50 | $79K | −3.1% of holding | −53.2% | −69.5% | 212,800 | Form 4 · filed 62 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 12,676 @ $11.50 | $146K | −3.6% of holding | −51.5% | −69.3% | 339,336 | Form 4 · filed 63 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,540 @ $10.65 | $38K | −1.1% of holding | −47.2% | −58.7% | 310,346 | Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,311 @ $13.33 | $31K | −0.9% of holding | −17.3% | −71.3% | 264,396 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 183 @ $13.33 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −17.3% | −71.3% | 150,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,423 @ $10.49 | $36K | −1.1% of holding | +9.7% | −59.3% | 313,886 | Form 4 · filed 164 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,851 @ $8.75 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | +20.2% | −40.2% | 317,309 | Form 4 · filed 196 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 149 @ $8.75 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +20.2% | −40.2% | 198,859 | Form 4 · filed 196 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Workman Kurt | director | Sale | 49,056 @ $8.46 | $415K | −11.4% of holding | −1.8% | −41.6% | 382,080 | Form 4 · filed 209 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Workman Kurt | director | Sale | 1,014 @ $7.25 | $7K | −0.2% of holding | +14.6% | −29.2% | 417,038 | Form 4 · filed 225 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 4,225 @ $7.06 | $30K | −2.7% of holding | +27.4% | −24.2% | 150,989 | Form 4 · filed 232 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,315 @ $7.72 | $26K | −1.3% of holding | +8.4% | +45.9% | 259,136 | Form 4 · filed 254 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,945 @ $8.03 | $16K | −0.7% of holding | −5.8% | +58.5% | 262,451 | Form 4 · filed 287 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 157 @ $8.03 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −5.8% | +58.5% | 155,214 | Form 4 · filed 287 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Workman Kurt | director | Sale | 1,119 @ $6.88 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | +16.1% | +80.2% | 418,052 | Form 4 · filed 318 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,565 @ $5.11 | $18K | −1.3% of holding | +38.9% | +110.2% | 266,707 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,817 @ $3.20 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | +49.6% | +139.0% | 270,272 | Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 142 @ $3.20 | $454 | −0.1% of holding | +49.6% | +139.0% | 155,371 | Form 4 · filed 379 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 5,184 @ $3.19 | $17K | −1.9% of holding | +16.5% | +139.9% | 272,089 | Form 4 · filed 43 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Workman Kurt | director | Sale | 1,044 @ $4.26 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −18.3% | +56.3% | 419,171 | Form 4 · filed 408 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 7,740 @ $4.30 | $33K | −2.7% of holding | +9.8% | +72.7% | 280,877 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 182 @ $4.30 | $783 | −0.1% of holding | +9.8% | +72.7% | 150,508 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 16,439 @ $4.45 | $73K | −5.4% of holding | +3.9% | +85.9% | 288,617 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Workman Kurt | director | Sale | 893 @ $4.86 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | −11.7% | +45.7% | 338,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-18 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,604 @ $4.45 | $16K | −1.3% of holding | −0.1% | +13.0% | 277,273 | Form 4 · filed 184 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-17 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Sale | 140 @ $4.92 | $689 | −0.1% of holding | −9.9% | −27.2% | 155,513 | Form 4 · filed 560 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Durr Laura | director | Award / grant | 26,785 | 127,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gonzales Melissa | director | Award / grant | 26,785 | 114,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | BURKE ZANE M | director | Award / grant | 26,785 | 134,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kim John C. | director | Award / grant | 26,785 | 278,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Stoll Marc F | director | Award / grant | 26,785 | 45,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Workman Kurt | director | Withheld for tax | 21,001 | 1,211,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Workman Kurt | director | Award / grant | 850,000 | 1,232,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Withheld for tax | 141 | 159,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Award / grant | 32,032 | 169,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,242 | 159,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,191 | 131,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Harris Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 41,666 | 352,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Crawford Amanda | officer | Award / grant | 20,833 | 219,692 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Kim John C. | director | Award / grant | 18,996 | 252,026 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | BURKE ZANE M | director | Award / grant | 18,996 | 108,002 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Stoll Marc F | director | Award / grant | 18,996 | 18,996 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Durr Laura | director | Award / grant | 18,996 | 100,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Gonzales Melissa | director | Award / grant | 18,996 | 87,905 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Trilogy Equity Partners, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 712,915 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Trilogy Equity Partners, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 444,601 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Kim John C. | director | Disposition | 131,195 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Kim John C. | director | Disposition | 48,621 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Workman Kurt | director | Disposition | 131,195 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 5,300,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Susan Lior | director | Disposition | 5,300,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Trilogy Equity Partners, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 686,469 | 1,567,468 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Award / grant | 3,898,906 | 5,665,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 5,300,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 1,166,935 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 1,166,935 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Award / grant | 3,898,906 | 5,665,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 5,300,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 1,166,935 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Award / grant | 3,898,906 | 5,665,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Award / grant | 3,898,906 | 5,665,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 5,300,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 1,166,935 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Award / grant | 3,898,906 | 5,665,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Disposition | 5,300,291 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-10 | Eclipse Continuity GP I, LLC | director | Award / grant | 3,898,906 | 5,665,669 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.