OWL · TickerCove

OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.12 · now $10.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OWL has typically landed between $8.23 and $11.97 — a range of −18.7% to +18.2% from the issuance price $10.12.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,424 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$10.12 · 21% of range

$8.04 low$18.01 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 15.8%

−18.7%worst (p90)+18.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where OWL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $10.12 (+0.0%)
typical $10.14 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $9.34–$10.94
90% range $8.23–$11.97

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,424 windows spanning 2020-12-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-02-10	−32.3%	−32.3%	+0.0%
2026-01-22	−32.1%	−32.1%	+0.0%
2026-01-21	−30.0%	−30.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-05-06	+63.3%	−2.4%	+63.3%
2021-05-11	+63.0%	−2.2%	+63.5%
2021-05-07	+60.8%	−2.4%	+63.3%

1,424 overlapping windows · 2020-12-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.2%

n=6

Feb

33%

−3.9%

n=6

Mar

33%

−4.5%

n=6

Apr

67%

−0.6%

n=6

May

67%

+3.7%

n=6

Jun

50%

−1.7%

n=6

Jul

100%

+9.4%

n=6

Aug

17%

+0.4%

n=6

Sep

50%

−1.9%

n=6

Oct

60%

+4.6%

n=5

Nov

60%

+3.2%

n=5

Dec

20%

+0.1%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Sale	1	—	−50.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Sale	1	—	−50.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Sale	1	—	−50.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Sale	1	—	−50.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-02	Ostrover Douglas I	director	Purchase	139,327 @ $15.06	$2.1M	+746.1% of holding	+2.1%	−40.4%	158,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02	Packer Craig	director	Purchase	82,891 @ $15.06	$1.2M	+746.2% of holding	+2.1%	−40.4%	94,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Purchase	69,663 @ $15.06	$1.0M	+746.1% of holding	+2.1%	−40.4%	79,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-02	Packer Craig	director	Purchase	27,336 @ $15.06	$412K	+746.1% of holding	+2.1%	−40.4%	31,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Kirshenbaum Alan	director	Purchase	33,670 @ $14.87	$501K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.1%	−44.2%	33,670	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	Ostrover Douglas I	director	Purchase	18,673 @ $15.06	$281K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.1%	−44.2%	18,673	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	Packer Craig	director	Purchase	11,109 @ $15.06	$167K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.1%	−44.2%	11,109	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Purchase	9,337 @ $15.06	$141K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.1%	−44.2%	9,337	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	Packer Craig	director	Purchase	3,664 @ $15.06	$55K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.1%	−44.2%	3,664	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14	Rees Michael Douglass	director	Sale	20,000,000	—	−100.0% of holding	−8.0%	−39.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14	Rees Michael Douglass	director	Sale	20,000,000	—	−100.0% of holding	−8.0%	−39.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Zahr Marc	director	Sale	1	—	−50.0% of holding	−6.5%	−19.1%	1	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Zahr Marc	director	Sale	1	—	−50.0% of holding	−6.5%	−19.1%	1	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

187 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-14	Zahr Marc	director	Other acquisition	4,550,777	6,543,145	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	Dyal Capital SLP LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	350,000	131,414,357	Form 4
2026-09-11	Dyal Capital SLP LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	350,000	131,414,357	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	Kirshenbaum Alan	director	Gift	10,000	27,696	Form 4
2026-09-11	Kirshenbaum Alan	director	Gift	10,000	27,696	Form 4
2026-09-11	Dyal Capital SLP LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	350,000	131,414,357	Form 4
2026-09-11	Dyal Capital SLP LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	350,000	131,414,357	Form 4
2026-09-11	Rees Michael Douglass	director	Gift	300,000	10,909,723	Form 4
2026-09-11	Rees Michael Douglass	director	Gift	300,000	10,909,723	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Kirshenbaum Alan	director	Gift	10,000	27,696	Form 4
2026-09-11	Kirshenbaum Alan	director	Gift	10,000	27,696	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	Dyal Capital SLP LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	350,000	131,414,357	Form 4
2026-09-11	Dyal Capital SLP LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	350,000	131,414,357	Form 4
2026-09-11	Rees Michael Douglass	director	Gift	300,000	10,909,723	Form 4
2026-09-11	Rees Michael Douglass	director	Gift	300,000	10,909,723	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	LIPSCHULTZ MARC S	director	Gift	1,000,000	56,695,038	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Owl Rock Capital Feeder LLC	other	Other acquisition	1,010,000	169,874,846	Form 4
2026-09-11	Dyal Capital SLP LP	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	350,000	131,414,357	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i