Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.68 · now $2.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OVID has typically landed between $2.14 and $3.52 — a range of −20.0% to +31.4% from the issuance price $2.68.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,332 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OVID has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.68 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.7 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.46–$2.93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.14–$3.52
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-22 | −78.3% | −78.3% | +1.9% |
| 2024-05-17 | −77.7% | −77.7% | +4.4% |
| 2024-05-23 | −76.3% | −76.7% | +9.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-04 | +167.9% | −0.0% | +167.9% |
| 2025-08-05 | +159.9% | +0.0% | +168.0% |
| 2025-07-31 | +156.0% | −0.7% | +156.0% |
2,332 overlapping windows · 2017-05-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | ALEXANDER MARGARET A. | director | Sale | 11,656 @ $1.45 | $17K | −15.9% of holding | +70.9% | +82.0% | 61,750 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Rona Jeffrey A | director | Sale | 8,541 @ $1.45 | $12K | −8.8% of holding | +70.9% | +82.0% | 88,188 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Purchase | 35,500 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.0% | +26.8% | 35,500 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Purchase | 71 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.0% | +26.8% | 71 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Purchase | 47,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.0% | +26.8% | 47,333 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Purchase | 35,500 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.0% | +26.8% | 35,500 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Purchase | 71 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.0% | +26.8% | 71 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Purchase | 47,333 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −1.0% | +26.8% | 47,333 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | ALEXANDER MARGARET A. | director | Sale | 5,279 @ $0.56 | $3K | −6.7% of holding | −25.2% | +124.9% | 73,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Rona Jeffrey A | director | Sale | 3,902 @ $0.56 | $2K | −5.4% of holding | −25.2% | +124.9% | 67,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | ALEXANDER MARGARET A. | director | Purchase | 6,810 @ $0.73 | $5K | +24.2% of holding | −25.7% | −32.8% | 34,935 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Carter Charles Ross | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 94,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Greka Anna | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | PAPADOPOULOS STELIOS | director | Award / grant | 17,578 | 217,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Award / grant | 17,578 | 17,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Friedman Bart | director | Award / grant | 8,789 | 8,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Option exercise | 47,333 | 3,735,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Option exercise | 47,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | DUNCAN BARBARA GAYLE | director | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Bernstein Karen | director | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Friedman Bart | director | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Award / grant | 957,000 | 957,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | ALEXANDER MARGARET A. | director | Award / grant | 1,435,000 | 1,435,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Rona Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 68,125 | 156,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Rona Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 408,750 | 408,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | PAPADOPOULOS STELIOS | director | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-04 | ALEXANDER MARGARET A. | director | Award / grant | 890,000 | 890,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Conversion | 71 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Conversion | 71,000 | 3,687,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Conversion | 71,000 | 3,687,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,250,000 | 7,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO LTD | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | PAPADOPOULOS STELIOS | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Rona Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 43,750 | 71,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Rona Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 262,500 | 262,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | LEVIN JEREMY M | director | Award / grant | 1,650,000 | 1,650,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | DUNCAN BARBARA GAYLE | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Bernstein Karen | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | ALEXANDER MARGARET A. | director | Award / grant | 43,750 | 78,685 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | ALEXANDER MARGARET A. | director | Award / grant | 262,500 | 262,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-12 | Bernstein Karen | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-12 | DUNCAN BARBARA GAYLE | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-12 | Friedman Bart | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-12 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.